Another great, factual report today. Wes, you've really been busy, a one-man assault against Putin's blitz of misinformation that's been swallowed whole by the American press (looking at you, NY Times...) and the dumbheads in and around the White House who never saw a Russian proposal they didn't like.
Somehow the press and the White House have gotten the idea that Russia is winning its war of expansion in Ukraine. Never mind the courage and professionalism of the Ukrainian army, the strongest in Europe and its heroic defense. Never mind the million-plus casualties suffered by an under-trained, under-fed and under-supplied Russian mob that they claim is a rough and tough army. Never mind that their 'soldiers' are criminals drawn from their prisons and Siberian "republics" that cover most of the land of the Russian Federation, that they're most often unpaid and thrown into the meat grinder on foot, on bicycles and in private cars stolen from Russian noncombatants in the cities.
The vaunted successes of this ragged, starving band amount to a few yards here, a few trees over there and a vast number of dead and dying Russians littering the fields between the two armies and left to rot by their untrained and cowardly officers.
While this is all going on, Ukraine is destroying Russian supply lines, blowing up oil refineries
deep in the Russian interior and crushing the Russian economy. Putin knows his days in power are numbered. He's like an addict who just needs another fix, an almost-broke gambler going for that big score that has eluded him for years. Meanwhile the remains of his Black Sea fleet are hunkered down in a far corner of the Black Sea, his ramshackle fleet of worn-out false-flag tankers are trapped in the Baltic Sea and the remaining key war factories, airports, rail hubs and what's left of his economy are getting pummeled and destroyed by Ukrainian drones every single day and night.
If Putin were truly smart and cared about his country, he'd surrender, pull his forces out of Ukraine and retire to one of his dachas to live out the few years he might have left. Zelensky should be demanding that Russia surrender, return the thousands of stolen Ukrainian children hidden in Russia, and agree to substantial reparations to begin to make up for all the totally unnecessary damage Putin has done since 2014.
With a 9 year backup on orders at Dassault for the fighter, if Ukraine has to wait until 2034 to start receiving the plane,what probabilities to you assign to the war still going on at that time?
Good question. The probability of the war still looking like the 2022–2025 phase by 2034 is extremely low. But the probability of a frozen conflict, an unstable ceasefire, or a recurring-flare-up situation is not low at all. I like to think about it like this: A 2034 delivery timeline doesn’t mean Ukraine fights for ten more years. It means Ukraine is preparing to deter Russia for the next forty.
Bloody great articles and really great points Wes. Keep it up; as I said once before, just because I don't write a lot of times DOES NOT mean that I don't read EVERY ONE of your articles with intense interest and full agreement. You serve a great analysis and, as important, a great verbalisation of events and facts.
The J-10 used by Pakistan is not an F-35 clone and does not resemble it in any way.
The claims are that anywhere between one and three Rafales were shot down. India has (had, I suppose) 36. Claims are, of course often exaggerated
This was largely the result of an intelligence failure on the part of India, underestimating the range of the PL-15 missile. They simply didn’t expect to get shot at, and so were likely complacent.
No, it’s not a good look for the Rafales, but is not necessarily a reflection of the capabilities of the aircraft.
Erm.. I hope you do understand, Wes, that a 'letter of intent' is anything else than same like 'actual order', indeed: signing a contract?
Because, considering Ukraine is so bankrupt, it's uncertain how it might ever service what's due in the first half of 2026; and France is so bankrupt, nobody wants to accept appointment to the position of Moron's prime minister (primarily because Moron wasted dozens of billions to subsidise diverse buddies)... well, this entire affair was little else but a PR-stunt aiming to distract the public at home, than anything like 'announcing a serious intention'.
Another great, factual report today. Wes, you've really been busy, a one-man assault against Putin's blitz of misinformation that's been swallowed whole by the American press (looking at you, NY Times...) and the dumbheads in and around the White House who never saw a Russian proposal they didn't like.
Somehow the press and the White House have gotten the idea that Russia is winning its war of expansion in Ukraine. Never mind the courage and professionalism of the Ukrainian army, the strongest in Europe and its heroic defense. Never mind the million-plus casualties suffered by an under-trained, under-fed and under-supplied Russian mob that they claim is a rough and tough army. Never mind that their 'soldiers' are criminals drawn from their prisons and Siberian "republics" that cover most of the land of the Russian Federation, that they're most often unpaid and thrown into the meat grinder on foot, on bicycles and in private cars stolen from Russian noncombatants in the cities.
The vaunted successes of this ragged, starving band amount to a few yards here, a few trees over there and a vast number of dead and dying Russians littering the fields between the two armies and left to rot by their untrained and cowardly officers.
While this is all going on, Ukraine is destroying Russian supply lines, blowing up oil refineries
deep in the Russian interior and crushing the Russian economy. Putin knows his days in power are numbered. He's like an addict who just needs another fix, an almost-broke gambler going for that big score that has eluded him for years. Meanwhile the remains of his Black Sea fleet are hunkered down in a far corner of the Black Sea, his ramshackle fleet of worn-out false-flag tankers are trapped in the Baltic Sea and the remaining key war factories, airports, rail hubs and what's left of his economy are getting pummeled and destroyed by Ukrainian drones every single day and night.
If Putin were truly smart and cared about his country, he'd surrender, pull his forces out of Ukraine and retire to one of his dachas to live out the few years he might have left. Zelensky should be demanding that Russia surrender, return the thousands of stolen Ukrainian children hidden in Russia, and agree to substantial reparations to begin to make up for all the totally unnecessary damage Putin has done since 2014.
With a 9 year backup on orders at Dassault for the fighter, if Ukraine has to wait until 2034 to start receiving the plane,what probabilities to you assign to the war still going on at that time?
Good question. The probability of the war still looking like the 2022–2025 phase by 2034 is extremely low. But the probability of a frozen conflict, an unstable ceasefire, or a recurring-flare-up situation is not low at all. I like to think about it like this: A 2034 delivery timeline doesn’t mean Ukraine fights for ten more years. It means Ukraine is preparing to deter Russia for the next forty.
Bloody great articles and really great points Wes. Keep it up; as I said once before, just because I don't write a lot of times DOES NOT mean that I don't read EVERY ONE of your articles with intense interest and full agreement. You serve a great analysis and, as important, a great verbalisation of events and facts.
Great stuff Wes., keep it up.
Cheers,
Peter Kelly,
Australia.
RA-FAL: not Raph-a-el :)
Wes the French fighter is a Rafale. Not a Rafael.
Where did they get the money?
The Rafaele’s got smoked when they went up against Pakistan’s F-35 clones from China.
Well, no.
The J-10 used by Pakistan is not an F-35 clone and does not resemble it in any way.
The claims are that anywhere between one and three Rafales were shot down. India has (had, I suppose) 36. Claims are, of course often exaggerated
This was largely the result of an intelligence failure on the part of India, underestimating the range of the PL-15 missile. They simply didn’t expect to get shot at, and so were likely complacent.
No, it’s not a good look for the Rafales, but is not necessarily a reflection of the capabilities of the aircraft.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/how-pakistan-shot-down-indias-cutting-edge-fighter-using-chinese-gear-2025-08-02/
Yes yes and the grippen jets from saab😀
Erm.. I hope you do understand, Wes, that a 'letter of intent' is anything else than same like 'actual order', indeed: signing a contract?
Because, considering Ukraine is so bankrupt, it's uncertain how it might ever service what's due in the first half of 2026; and France is so bankrupt, nobody wants to accept appointment to the position of Moron's prime minister (primarily because Moron wasted dozens of billions to subsidise diverse buddies)... well, this entire affair was little else but a PR-stunt aiming to distract the public at home, than anything like 'announcing a serious intention'.