Can Ukraine Take Crimea in 2026? Maybe
Putin is struggling to protect the crown jewel of his invasion
I keep hearing, (from the more sensational side of Medium), that Crimea is about collapse.
Everybody wants the movie ending. Ukrainian flags going back up over Sevastopol, Russian trucks streaming north in a panic, Putin shaking his fist in anger saying, “foiled again by those damned Ukrainians!”
Yeah, I get the appeal. At the end of every single one of my YouTube videos, since I started the channel, I end the video with the words “Crimea is Ukraine” to remind folks that Russia’s odious presence is at best, temporary.
But it’s probably not how Crimea gets lost.
The peninsula is far more likely to slip out of Russia’s hands the boring way, across a long, grinding summer of dry fuel pumps, dead substations, dropped bridges, civilians confined to their homes, and ferries that don’t sail because the last one is still burning.
That summer has already started.
