One of the keys to determining whether it actually worked is seeing what the Iranians are doing. What they appear to have done is cleared up enough to have a look inside and then abandoned the place - at least that's what various OSINT Xitter people report. If so you are overly pessimistic. One of the things I was hoping for evidence of, but haven't seen reports of, is a uranium fire because cleaning up after that would be a HAZMAT nightmare. Though if that was underground then there might not be much evidence at the surface.
Just to play Devils Advocate here. What would be so terrible about Iran actually getting nuclear weapons? We've been hearing for some time about "how close Iran is to building a bomb" yet, I've seen no reports of any nuclear tests. Which, as a non scientific, non military observer would be pretty conclusive nice of a weapon.
Israel has had nukes for years, both India & Pakistan possess them as does North Korea yet the US are the only nation to have actually used them.
And NorthKorea has made similar threats about both the US & South Korea.
I'm not saying that Iran or anybody else for that matter should possess nuclear weapons but there is a difference between public rhetoric & sabre rattling and the actual reality of launching a nuclear tipped missile against another country.
Agee with you Simon. The logic of nuke weapon use has held for 80 years: you hit me, I hit you. Should Iran actually build a device and be able to deliver it, would they use it on Israel knowing that they would be hit with multiple bombs in return?
If you're Israel, having experienced 45 years of Iran spending billions to attack your country from three sides, you would be remiss to not take Iran's apocalyptic ranting at face value.
The moron who thought a nuke could be used to defeat a hurricane is the idiot who would think dropping a nuke on anything is a good idea. Fuck Trump and the Kremlin gremlins he rode in on.
All this (which I knew long before the Fordo strike because I'm an aerospace geek) worries me that next time those idiots will try a nuke anyway. I have no confidence in these Bozos.
Based on the gaping holes in the ground on open source satellite imaging that weren’t there the day before the strike…
Denying cold hard evidence that the entire world can see for themselves isn’t gonna help your case. Comical attempt at disinformation. These weapons have been repeatedly tested and their effects are well known.
They never would have been used if they weren’t effective. This article is nothing but speculation in a desperate attempt to reject mathematical certainties.
The people who designed the weapon know exponentially more about the science than the author of this silly little article. Probably thinks he knows better than NASA too.
The main effect isn’t the explosion, it’s the seismic blast radius. The nuclear scientists that I’ve read now seem to agree the site is almost certainly destroyed. The scale of precise scientific equipment within the site would not have survived the reverberations, dust and smoke. Even if it failed to penetrate deep enough, it likely triggered collapses and cave ins below.
The program obviously lives on and can be rebuilt, but Fordo is inoperable.
I think you underestimate how difficult it is to dig really really deep. It becomes more and more impractical. Digging it out after all the damage will be no different. You’re always one mistake away from a humanitarian crisis when you start digging deep.
Irans program has to balance being deep enough for survivability, but not so deep that a shallow cave-in means losing the facility forever. And not so deep that it’s impractical to truck material in and out.
We’ve already seen in satellite photos that Iran has had to create a temporary access road and has brought in an excavator to one the blast clusters. It’s not operable.
The Grand Slam was the daddy of these weapons designed by Barnes Wallace, but a third smaller and designed for softer geology. Intended to propagate an “earthquake” that destabilized structures, rendering them useless. Apparently they would break up against harder targets like sub pens
Trump and Co usual and definitely more and more daily fucking lies. Get rid of these gangsters and corrupt thieves before it is really really too late. Between you and me I think that unless serious actions are set in motion we can kiss bye bye to democracy in the US of A. As with nuclear bombs those buster-whatever devices have a “use by date X”. That was a good opportunity to follow the manufactor instructions and order pdq newer and much more expensive models, no?
Yes, there’s rock, there’s shock, there’s damping that limits the penetration. But don’t forget: inside, there are vulnerable electronics, motors, aligned structures, clean rooms, etc all of which took years to assemble properly. Yes, the MOP’s penetration is limited by the geology, but it can still disable the equipment.
Iran is a geological mash-up, formed by the interactions among three tectonic plates. The most uniform bits a Precambrian igneous blocks, think granites, but those are hard to mine, so it’s likely that the sites were placed in fairly heterogeneous material. Bye Bye Miss American Pie from the sky.
I think that is a good reality check to the Trump 'regime' claims
Unfortunately, the Trump regime has a tenous grasp of any sort of reality at best...
Some more expert commentary here - https://www.twz.com/nuclear/los-alamos-scientists-insights-on-the-gbu-57-massive-ordnance-penetrator
One of the keys to determining whether it actually worked is seeing what the Iranians are doing. What they appear to have done is cleared up enough to have a look inside and then abandoned the place - at least that's what various OSINT Xitter people report. If so you are overly pessimistic. One of the things I was hoping for evidence of, but haven't seen reports of, is a uranium fire because cleaning up after that would be a HAZMAT nightmare. Though if that was underground then there might not be much evidence at the surface.
The limits of air power were never more apparent than in Vietnam.
“Vietnam was a country where America was trying to make people stop being communists by dropping things on them from airplanes.”
Kurt Vonnegut
Just to play Devils Advocate here. What would be so terrible about Iran actually getting nuclear weapons? We've been hearing for some time about "how close Iran is to building a bomb" yet, I've seen no reports of any nuclear tests. Which, as a non scientific, non military observer would be pretty conclusive nice of a weapon.
Israel has had nukes for years, both India & Pakistan possess them as does North Korea yet the US are the only nation to have actually used them.
Because Iran has stated directly that if they get a bomb they will seek to destroy Israel with it
And NorthKorea has made similar threats about both the US & South Korea.
I'm not saying that Iran or anybody else for that matter should possess nuclear weapons but there is a difference between public rhetoric & sabre rattling and the actual reality of launching a nuclear tipped missile against another country.
The Iranian regime has been attacking US and Western interests since taking power. "Death to Israel. Death to America."
Agee with you Simon. The logic of nuke weapon use has held for 80 years: you hit me, I hit you. Should Iran actually build a device and be able to deliver it, would they use it on Israel knowing that they would be hit with multiple bombs in return?
If you're Israel, having experienced 45 years of Iran spending billions to attack your country from three sides, you would be remiss to not take Iran's apocalyptic ranting at face value.
Which holds true for Russia, DPRK, India or Pakistan.
The moron who thought a nuke could be used to defeat a hurricane is the idiot who would think dropping a nuke on anything is a good idea. Fuck Trump and the Kremlin gremlins he rode in on.
All this (which I knew long before the Fordo strike because I'm an aerospace geek) worries me that next time those idiots will try a nuke anyway. I have no confidence in these Bozos.
Norden bombsight enters the chat.
Even the Defense Intelligence Assessment was preliminary right? How soon before we should aspect knowing with more certainty?
(I realize there's a lot of variables to that answer. Perhaps too many)
Umm, no.
Based on the gaping holes in the ground on open source satellite imaging that weren’t there the day before the strike…
Denying cold hard evidence that the entire world can see for themselves isn’t gonna help your case. Comical attempt at disinformation. These weapons have been repeatedly tested and their effects are well known.
They never would have been used if they weren’t effective. This article is nothing but speculation in a desperate attempt to reject mathematical certainties.
The people who designed the weapon know exponentially more about the science than the author of this silly little article. Probably thinks he knows better than NASA too.
I'm all for scepticism, however the Trump Administration has a history of Deception, Extraordinary Claims etc.
> They never would have been used if they weren’t effective.
That’s a bizarre statement. The military used the most effective conventional weapon available and hoped it would do the job.
Certainly, the bombs went boom, but it’s unlikely they penetrated to the level of the underground complex, which is very deep.
The main effect isn’t the explosion, it’s the seismic blast radius. The nuclear scientists that I’ve read now seem to agree the site is almost certainly destroyed. The scale of precise scientific equipment within the site would not have survived the reverberations, dust and smoke. Even if it failed to penetrate deep enough, it likely triggered collapses and cave ins below.
The program obviously lives on and can be rebuilt, but Fordo is inoperable.
I think you underestimate how difficult it is to dig really really deep. It becomes more and more impractical. Digging it out after all the damage will be no different. You’re always one mistake away from a humanitarian crisis when you start digging deep.
Irans program has to balance being deep enough for survivability, but not so deep that a shallow cave-in means losing the facility forever. And not so deep that it’s impractical to truck material in and out.
We’ve already seen in satellite photos that Iran has had to create a temporary access road and has brought in an excavator to one the blast clusters. It’s not operable.
> The scale of precise scientific equipment within the site would not have survived the reverberations, dust and smoke.
I don’t know how moveable that equipment is, but it appears it might have been removed in the lead-up to the attack.
Oops
Great update on the sorties and weapon
The Grand Slam was the daddy of these weapons designed by Barnes Wallace, but a third smaller and designed for softer geology. Intended to propagate an “earthquake” that destabilized structures, rendering them useless. Apparently they would break up against harder targets like sub pens
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_(bomb)
Trump and Co usual and definitely more and more daily fucking lies. Get rid of these gangsters and corrupt thieves before it is really really too late. Between you and me I think that unless serious actions are set in motion we can kiss bye bye to democracy in the US of A. As with nuclear bombs those buster-whatever devices have a “use by date X”. That was a good opportunity to follow the manufactor instructions and order pdq newer and much more expensive models, no?
Yes, there’s rock, there’s shock, there’s damping that limits the penetration. But don’t forget: inside, there are vulnerable electronics, motors, aligned structures, clean rooms, etc all of which took years to assemble properly. Yes, the MOP’s penetration is limited by the geology, but it can still disable the equipment.
Iran is a geological mash-up, formed by the interactions among three tectonic plates. The most uniform bits a Precambrian igneous blocks, think granites, but those are hard to mine, so it’s likely that the sites were placed in fairly heterogeneous material. Bye Bye Miss American Pie from the sky.
Didn’t I read that they dropped a completely different bomb because they knew the bunker was too deep?
Outstanding analysis!