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Mike Bauer's avatar

Wes, the likelihood of the conflict going nuclear are high, because Russia would struggle with any of the key NATO countries. Poland and Germany? Tough and both together? Russia is in a bind. The Nordic countries, especially Finland are tough. I wouldn’t want to fight Finns on their ground, no way.

Watching Russia trying to maneuver in Ukraine made me realize how badly they were prepared. Lousy maintenance and maintenance is the key factor along with logistics.

I think a desperate Putin would go nuclear

Wes O'Donnell's avatar

I was actually contemplating a video or article comparing Poland's military versus Russia's toe to toe (without NATO help) I actually think Poland would tear them apart, especially post Ukraine. The only big issue is Russia's air force is mostly intact, and massive. Poland's is relatively small in comparison.

Mike Bauer's avatar

I agree and the Poles would like nothing better than to make up for the occupation. The Air Force is a bit shallow the Germans would help with although they do have some readiness issues

A piece on that would be interesting

Alan King's avatar

Lithuania can easily eject a couple hundred soldiers from 10sqkm.

More difficult is the Crimea scenario.

Wes O'Donnell's avatar

My worry in Lithuania would be the brigade just over the Russian side of the border turning the stolen land in Lithuania into a meat grinder with drones and artillery.

Robot Bender's avatar

Wes, is it still the case that the UKs nuclear force is under US control?

Wes O'Donnell's avatar

Hey Bender! No. The UK retains full operational control of its nuclear weapons. Only the British prime minister can authorize a launch, and the United States has no veto or requirement to approve it. But I think there's an important distinction between operational independence and technological independence. Britain's Trident II missiles are manufactured in the US and maintained through a shared missile pool at Kings Bay, Georgia. The UK manufactures its own nuclear warheads and operates its own submarines and launch systems.

So Britain can independently launch its existing nuclear weapons, but it remains heavily dependent on American support for their long-term maintenance and replacement.

Robot Bender's avatar

Okay, thanks. I was a little confused about that. I hope no one tells Trump about that.