
Welcome, visitors, to the United States of Sellout, where all your dreams can come true! Whether it’s visiting one of our luxurious casinos in the Gaza Strip or witnessing the majesty of Trump’s likeness at Mount Rushmore, everything is for sale, including your country’s future!
On November 18 last year, I wrote the following words:
“The specter of Trump’s return has European leaders breaking out the Tums.
A Trump 2.0 presidency means cutting US military aid, backroom deals with Putin, and the unthinkable — a de facto alliance of the US and Russia, hell-bent on dismantling the post-WWII global order.”
Welp… Welcome to our collective nightmare. Let’s face facts — I’m not an oracle — anyone could see this coming. Some European leaders certainly had an opportunity to prepare for this moment and squandered it by hoping Trump would do the right thing.
But in a move that surprised precisely no one who has been paying attention, President Donald Trump picked up the phone and had a “lengthy and highly productive” chat with his old handler, Vladimir Putin.
This unilateral action, without NATO, without Europe, and without Ukraine, is the worst possible scenario for Ukraine.
This, of course, happened before he even bothered to call Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, which, given the ongoing war and the whole “defending democracy” thing, was a bit of a diplomatic gut punch to Kyiv.
European leaders, upon hearing the news, collectively choked on their espressos. One official outright called it a “sellout,” while others scrambled to figure out what this meant for Ukraine’s already precarious security situation.
Because when Trump and Putin start whispering sweet nothings to each other, the rest of the world has every reason to be concerned.
One of my YouTube subscribers summed it up nicely: “Hey Wes, I love your content. But unfortunately, you (Americans) are now my country’s enemy.”
According to Bloomberg, Trump’s grand strategy for Ukraine involves the European Union taking over nearly all Ukraine military aid and expanding its own armies.
Because why should America foot the bill when Europe can cough up the cash? After all, Trump has long held the belief that NATO allies are freeloaders, despite the fact that European countries have contributed billions in aid to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
But the cost here isn’t just financial — it’s strategic and moral. Trump’s plan forces European nations into a position where they must rapidly expand their military capabilities, effectively militarizing the continent in a way not seen since the Cold War.
The idea of rapidly increasing defense spending may sound good in theory, but the practical challenges of scaling up arms production, training forces, and modernizing military infrastructure in a short time frame are immense.
Even more concerning is the precedent this sets for future conflicts. If Trump’s plan goes forward, it signals that America is willing to trade security commitments for economic gain.
Ukraine, in this scenario, becomes a bargaining chip, its future subject to the whims of great power deal-making rather than a genuine commitment to protecting its sovereignty.
European officials are also questioning the feasibility of this massive financial burden. With many EU nations still grappling with post-pandemic economic instability and inflationary pressures, raising defense budgets to 3.5% of GDP is no small feat.
It risks diverting funds from essential social services and infrastructure projects, all while forcing governments into politically precarious positions.
Of course, the irony here is that while Trump demands that Europe pays up, he’s also making nice with Putin, the very man responsible for this mess.
It’s like setting someone’s house on fire and then demanding that the neighbors pay for the water to put it out. And given Putin’s track record, there’s no reason to believe that any deal brokered under these terms will lead to lasting peace — only a pause before the next round of Russian aggression.
In my mind, Ukraine now has a choice… Stick with the United States, and our new ally Russia, and lose all territory currently occupied by the invaders. Receive NO security guarantees. And let Putin rebuild his military and try again for Kyiv within his lifetime.
Or, side with Europe and ignore any “deal” that Trump and Vlad attempt to enforce. But be warned… This could result in the bizarro situation of damage to Trump’s fragile dealmaking ego and possible punitive economic measures against Ukraine.
To be clear, Trump’s cozying up to Putin does have strategic outcomes, (in Trump’s little mind at least). If the US could decouple Russia’s dependence on China, and open Russia’s economy to the West again, the US would have an easier time putting economic pressure on China.
But there is a price for this: Ukraine will be sacrificed on the altar of America’s Sinophobia.
Ukraine as a Bargaining Chip: Rare Earths for Security
Adding another layer of absurdity to this geopolitical circus, Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have floated the idea of trading US security guarantees for access to Ukraine’s untapped reserves of rare earth minerals. You know, because nothing says “defending democracy” quite like turning a war-torn nation into America’s next mining operation.
This is almost as bad as Trump’s plan to set up used car dealerships and cheap casinos in Gaza.
The logic here is simple: Trump wants to extract something tangible in exchange for US support, while simultaneously backing away from any real military commitment.
And let’s be real — Putin sees this as an opportunity. If the US starts treating Ukraine like a commodity rather than an ally, Russia gets a clear signal that Ukraine’s future is up for negotiation.
Rare earth minerals are crucial for everything from advanced military technology to renewable energy solutions, making Ukraine’s reserves a highly valuable asset. Trump’s plan essentially turns the country into a resource hub rather than a sovereign nation deserving of strategic protection.
The economic ramifications are immense — foreign investors may hesitate to commit to Ukraine’s reconstruction if they see the country’s assets being carved up for geopolitical trade-offs.
What’s more, prioritizing mineral extraction over security guarantees raises serious ethical concerns.
Ukraine needs a robust military and economic foundation to ensure its survival, not a transactional relationship that hinges on how much lithium or titanium it can provide. This isn’t just about numbers on a balance sheet — it’s about a country fighting for its right to exist without being reduced to a mere supplier of critical materials.
If Trump succeeds in implementing this “deal,” it sets a dangerous precedent: security alliances are no longer based on mutual defense but on economic utility. For Putin, this is a dream scenario — Ukraine becomes fragmented, financially dependent, and ultimately weakened, all without Russia having to fire another shot.
While Trump plays geopolitical Monopoly with Ukraine’s future, European leaders are increasingly worried they’re about to get left with the bill.
Lithuania’s Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė rightly pointed out that Europe already provided more financial aid to Ukraine last year than the US did ($125 billion vs. $88 billion), meaning they have more than “earned a seat at the table.”
But Trump’s newly minted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had other ideas. He told NATO allies in Brussels that while Europe and “non-European troops” (read: Australians) would be responsible for policing any Ukraine-Russia agreement, Washington no longer considered Ukraine’s NATO membership a “realistic outcome.”
Translation? The US is officially passing the buck. America will make the deal, but Europe will pay for it and enforce it. This is exactly the kind of “partnership” European leaders feared when Trump first took office back in 2016.
In response, countries like Germany and France have accelerated plans for an independent European defense framework. French President Emmanuel Macron has renewed his push for “strategic autonomy,” emphasizing that Europe can no longer rely on the US for protection.
Germany, meanwhile, has announced a historic increase in defense spending, signaling that it is bracing for a future where US support is no longer guaranteed.
European ministers who attended the Munich Security Conference expected to push for clarity on Trump’s NATO stance, but few were optimistic. With Washington shifting its priorities, Europe faces an urgent question: Can it defend itself without American backing? And if not, what happens when the next crisis comes knocking?
Let’s not forget that during his campaign, Trump repeatedly promised that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. That claim was met with skepticism by literally everyone who understands how wars work.
Now, his “plan” appears to be little more than a backroom deal with Putin, one that conveniently skips over Ukraine’s actual needs and security concerns.
Zelensky, trying to remain diplomatic, said he wasn’t thrilled about being left out of the conversation but remained hopeful that Ukraine would still have a say in the final agreement.
Meanwhile, Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius bluntly warned that appeasing Putin would only encourage more aggression. Because history has shown us how well that strategy works.
Predictably, Moscow is loving every second of this. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov smugly told CNN that European leaders were “shocked” by Trump and Putin’s call as if it were some great revelation that Trump would rather cozy up to an autocrat than listen to his own allies.
For Europeans, this whole situation is triggering uncomfortable memories of the 1938 Munich Agreement, when Hitler was appeased at the expense of Czechoslovakia.
Back then, Western leaders thought they could negotiate peace by handing over chunks of sovereign nations. Today, it’s Ukraine facing the same fate, with Trump poised to make a deal that could cement Putin’s territorial gains.
The echoes of 1938 grow louder as European officials scramble to ensure they don’t fall into the same trap of appeasement. Unlike the late 1930s, however, Putin’s expansionist ambitions have been made abundantly clear for years, and any attempt to hand him a victory through diplomacy alone would be an exercise in willful ignorance.
The Kremlin has wasted no time in exploiting Trump’s reluctance to commit to NATO and Ukraine. Russian state media is gleefully broadcasting the message that Western unity is crumbling and that Moscow’s patience is finally paying off.
By painting the US as an unreliable ally and Europe as weak, Putin is strengthening his own domestic support and reinforcing his broader geopolitical ambitions.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is left bracing for the worst. The prospect of a peace deal orchestrated without its direct involvement means that Zelensky’s government must now work overtime to secure European guarantees, hoping that nations like Germany and France will hold the line where the US is faltering.
If history is any guide, appeasement only emboldens aggressors. The Munich Agreement didn’t prevent war — it invited it. And if Europe and the US fail to stand firm now, they may find themselves facing an even greater threat down the road, one that won’t be contained to Ukraine alone.
For all Trump’s grandstanding about “making America great again,” his approach to Ukraine and NATO is making Europe rethink its reliance on the US
With Trump signaling that Washington’s days of bankrolling European security are over, EU leaders are starting to ask hard questions:
Should they develop their own nuclear deterrent?
Can they build a self-sufficient defense industry fast enough?
Will NATO even survive if Trump’s America turns its back on Article 5?
Let’s be honest — the writing is already on the wall. Trump has made it clear: the US will not fight Europe’s wars, and if Europe wants Ukraine to survive, it will have to step up on its own.
So here we are. Trump has made his move, Putin is waiting to see how much he can get away with, and Ukraine is stuck in the middle of a game where the rules keep changing.
Meanwhile, Europe is facing the uncomfortable reality that the security umbrella it has relied on for decades may be closing. And if that happens, the world order as we know it could change forever.
As for Trump, he’s still convinced he can outdeal Putin. But history suggests otherwise. And if he’s wrong, the consequences will be paid in Ukrainian blood and European treasure.
Folks, we’re only one month into Trump’s regime…
Pace yourself with your news consumption.
Take care of your mental and physical health.
And “Screw your courage to the sticking place” (Macbeth — Act 1, Scene 7) because this is going to be a long fight.
Слава Україні!
This is a spot-on analysis conveyed via superb writing, Wes. As a former NATO fighter pilot and lifelong student of geopolitics, I agree 100%. Thank you for your sterling work.
- Best wishes from Spain
I don’t think Ukraine can sell out Ukraine. And I don’t see any negotiation without Ukraine. Yes I know Trump and Putin can make some back room deal in Saudi Arabia, but the reality is that it can be rejected. (Also there has to be some peace element of the plan even for Trump to make it. ) so let’s see. Admitting it can be worse. Europe can fight the war with Ukraine in. But it is now clear Europe is in its own. But so is the US. Does Trump think he can have any support on anything from Europe after this? We can always talk to China. Buy Chinese products. Including their AI. It is more energy efficient after all, and cheaper as well. And stop supporting US in the Middle East. Hell, we could probably ally with Mexico if need be. Does Trump have any idea of all the enemies out there? (Rhetorical question, I know he doesn’t understand.) But it is very sad.