This is simply a wilful misunderstanding or misrepresentation of Russia’s status within Europe. Russia is just a banana republic with nuclear weapons - it has no political influence in Europe (other than Hungary perhaps) and, with a GDP barely above Mexico but well below the UK, France and Italy, it has no economic clout.
Russia is simply an irritant and persistent mischief-maker; nothing more.
I doubt it would take decades to significantly increase VE oil production. Western companies have operated in VE until fairly recently, and while there, made big strides in increasing production from existing oilfields. Most of those firms left because of difficulties extracting profits from the country, not because they couldn’t make a big production difference. Change the arbitrary rules on profit handling, which is a political decision, not a technical challenge, and Western firms would return.
Russia is primarily an irritant, but since it always overestimates its ability and power it creates serious conflicts. It cannot help but try to expand. That expansion leads to conflict.
One serious misunderstanding. Present day Russia is an entirely imperialist construct. Since the days of Muscovy - Moscow and St Petersburg- Russia as in Muscovy has invaded and colonised every one of its neighbours. Under the Tsars, Stalin and now Putin. Kyiv existed long before Moscow but has been subject to repeated Russian invasion and colonisation. Culminating in the Holodomor when 4-6m Ukrainians were starved to death by Stalins regime.
It would help if that was understood more widely. Not that today’s utterly imperialist America would care. Just following Putin’s model.
Where does this leave Colombia, the other nearby Central American countries, and Mexico? Frightened, I'm sure. Will there be a few more "arrests" and incidents?
I could try to guess, but who knows what transpires in the minds of madmen? I would say that any non-NATO member in the Western hemisphere who doesn't bend the knee is at some level of risk.
…and not only non-NATO: Denmark (& Greenland) are in NATO. That’s what’s frightening here: will Trump try a takeover, knowing it would eviscerate the alliance and hand Putin the win?
South/Latin America is a very big place and has been abused by America for decades. Memories will be long and they are not the puppets they once were, with military juntas implanted by America. Interference by the Trump regime will likely bring them together. America will struggle to manage Venezuela as it has struggled many times before. Imposing a client front regime so America can steal their oil will certainly unite Venezuelans.
And now America wants to invade a European country…
As ever, American arrogance and greed will be their downfall though it will take a while.
This hurts Cuba but they are already poor, very, often in the dark and probably many are hungry. Hardly a threat except for being 60 miles from Florida. Have we finally gotten to the point that a carrot would work better there than a stick? The new leader has a 10 year term limit and just maybe they might be open to discussing just enough reforms that they become friendlier with the US than russia? A bit of negotiation and help with pressing problems might be cheaper than the 3 hours spent in venezuela.
Brilliant breakdown of how geography-as-a-service works in geopolitical leverage. The bit about Russia's 'bandwidth problem' is exactly right becauseevery proxy requires maintenance, and Moskow's already stretched thin keeping Ukraine from collapsing their entire regional strategy. I saw something similar when working on supply chain modelling where removing one node causes cascading failures downstream.The real question is wether this contraction becomes self-reinforcing once other clients realize Russia can't defend them when it matters.
Appears Trump will not rebuild Venezuel's oil industry, but simply ship the crude to the USA to process and sell, raking off the profits while Venezuelans lose their resources for no return. In other words, Trump, the crime boss, is stealing the oil that belongs to the Venezuelan people.
Wes, I don’t understand—this seems overblown. Trump didn’t change the regime (at least not so far). The VP was reportedly in Moscow when this happened. The entire corrupt government and security and military services are still there, and I haven’t seen any argument that the VP is going to do things differently now—her conversations in Moscow suggest they may have come to an agreement, which presumably would continue to benefit Putin. Maybe the US forces took the opportunity to degrade some Russian infrastructure in Venezuela, but it seems to me that so far, nothing in the country has changed except the name at the top. What am I missing?
Thanks for a challenging interpretation of "Absolute resolve". Certainly the immediate outlook for Russia and proxies isn't great. Not only because Putin's would-be imperial status takes another blow, after Ukraine's standing up to him and Assad's ousting, but also because his shadow fleet, shared in good measure with Venezuela (and Iran) is more than ever in the limelight.
However I beg to differ on the longer term perspective, eg when reading: "Strategic efficiency at its finest: decapitate the logistics hub, and the dependent regimes start bleeding internally. (...) For Putin, this is a strategic dilemma."
Caracas indeed hosted a great show of tactical power and efficiency, but to me it's anything but strategic. What is the long-term planning behind it? Will the regime stay in place, only with a mildly different front, provided it shares oil revenues with Big Uncle Sam? How empowered will other dictators feel to act similarly in their own European or Asian hemispheres of influence? Can international institutions survive when one corrupt criminal takes out another one with only the slightest pretence at legality, reminiscent of mafia wars (especially as drugs are the pretext)?
“A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.”
— Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.
Would this Venezuela action still have happened if it were not for the Epstein files or Trump’s declining popularity in the United States?
How will this help your average American? If anything, taxpayers will be on the hook for the cost of resuscitating Venezuelan oil production, which could take over a decade.
Maduro’s presumed involvement in drug trafficking is a lie, a false pretext for starting an illegal war.
Where is Congress? Shameful Republican lawmakers are giddy at their perceived victory. Wait till everyone finds out there is no plan for Venezuela's future other than grift. Trump doesn’t care about democracy or Venezuelans anymore than he cares about the rest of us.
“Now, he claimed … Russia gets Europe“.
NO - I’m afraid not …
This is simply a wilful misunderstanding or misrepresentation of Russia’s status within Europe. Russia is just a banana republic with nuclear weapons - it has no political influence in Europe (other than Hungary perhaps) and, with a GDP barely above Mexico but well below the UK, France and Italy, it has no economic clout.
Russia is simply an irritant and persistent mischief-maker; nothing more.
When he said that, I thought to myself "Good luck with that Europe part..."
I doubt it would take decades to significantly increase VE oil production. Western companies have operated in VE until fairly recently, and while there, made big strides in increasing production from existing oilfields. Most of those firms left because of difficulties extracting profits from the country, not because they couldn’t make a big production difference. Change the arbitrary rules on profit handling, which is a political decision, not a technical challenge, and Western firms would return.
Very good point. Venezuelan oil is also difficult to work with. It will take serious investments quite a few places to increase production.
A fundamental truth- “Wars are … won when your opponent runs out of options faster than you do.”
Russia is primarily an irritant, but since it always overestimates its ability and power it creates serious conflicts. It cannot help but try to expand. That expansion leads to conflict.
One serious misunderstanding. Present day Russia is an entirely imperialist construct. Since the days of Muscovy - Moscow and St Petersburg- Russia as in Muscovy has invaded and colonised every one of its neighbours. Under the Tsars, Stalin and now Putin. Kyiv existed long before Moscow but has been subject to repeated Russian invasion and colonisation. Culminating in the Holodomor when 4-6m Ukrainians were starved to death by Stalins regime.
It would help if that was understood more widely. Not that today’s utterly imperialist America would care. Just following Putin’s model.
Where does this leave Colombia, the other nearby Central American countries, and Mexico? Frightened, I'm sure. Will there be a few more "arrests" and incidents?
I could try to guess, but who knows what transpires in the minds of madmen? I would say that any non-NATO member in the Western hemisphere who doesn't bend the knee is at some level of risk.
…and not only non-NATO: Denmark (& Greenland) are in NATO. That’s what’s frightening here: will Trump try a takeover, knowing it would eviscerate the alliance and hand Putin the win?
It isn't just Putin in Moscow that has a headache. Beijing has one too.
I have a headache, too. I cannot be alone.
South/Latin America is a very big place and has been abused by America for decades. Memories will be long and they are not the puppets they once were, with military juntas implanted by America. Interference by the Trump regime will likely bring them together. America will struggle to manage Venezuela as it has struggled many times before. Imposing a client front regime so America can steal their oil will certainly unite Venezuelans.
And now America wants to invade a European country…
As ever, American arrogance and greed will be their downfall though it will take a while.
Always incisive analysis to a fault.
Never miss a post!
This hurts Cuba but they are already poor, very, often in the dark and probably many are hungry. Hardly a threat except for being 60 miles from Florida. Have we finally gotten to the point that a carrot would work better there than a stick? The new leader has a 10 year term limit and just maybe they might be open to discussing just enough reforms that they become friendlier with the US than russia? A bit of negotiation and help with pressing problems might be cheaper than the 3 hours spent in venezuela.
Brilliant breakdown of how geography-as-a-service works in geopolitical leverage. The bit about Russia's 'bandwidth problem' is exactly right becauseevery proxy requires maintenance, and Moskow's already stretched thin keeping Ukraine from collapsing their entire regional strategy. I saw something similar when working on supply chain modelling where removing one node causes cascading failures downstream.The real question is wether this contraction becomes self-reinforcing once other clients realize Russia can't defend them when it matters.
Appears Trump will not rebuild Venezuel's oil industry, but simply ship the crude to the USA to process and sell, raking off the profits while Venezuelans lose their resources for no return. In other words, Trump, the crime boss, is stealing the oil that belongs to the Venezuelan people.
Wes, I don’t understand—this seems overblown. Trump didn’t change the regime (at least not so far). The VP was reportedly in Moscow when this happened. The entire corrupt government and security and military services are still there, and I haven’t seen any argument that the VP is going to do things differently now—her conversations in Moscow suggest they may have come to an agreement, which presumably would continue to benefit Putin. Maybe the US forces took the opportunity to degrade some Russian infrastructure in Venezuela, but it seems to me that so far, nothing in the country has changed except the name at the top. What am I missing?
This is really interesting!! I didn’t even think about where Russia stands as far as legitimacy.
Then why was it his idea?????
Thanks for a challenging interpretation of "Absolute resolve". Certainly the immediate outlook for Russia and proxies isn't great. Not only because Putin's would-be imperial status takes another blow, after Ukraine's standing up to him and Assad's ousting, but also because his shadow fleet, shared in good measure with Venezuela (and Iran) is more than ever in the limelight.
However I beg to differ on the longer term perspective, eg when reading: "Strategic efficiency at its finest: decapitate the logistics hub, and the dependent regimes start bleeding internally. (...) For Putin, this is a strategic dilemma."
Caracas indeed hosted a great show of tactical power and efficiency, but to me it's anything but strategic. What is the long-term planning behind it? Will the regime stay in place, only with a mildly different front, provided it shares oil revenues with Big Uncle Sam? How empowered will other dictators feel to act similarly in their own European or Asian hemispheres of influence? Can international institutions survive when one corrupt criminal takes out another one with only the slightest pretence at legality, reminiscent of mafia wars (especially as drugs are the pretext)?
“A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.”
— Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.
Would this Venezuela action still have happened if it were not for the Epstein files or Trump’s declining popularity in the United States?
How will this help your average American? If anything, taxpayers will be on the hook for the cost of resuscitating Venezuelan oil production, which could take over a decade.
Maduro’s presumed involvement in drug trafficking is a lie, a false pretext for starting an illegal war.
Where is Congress? Shameful Republican lawmakers are giddy at their perceived victory. Wait till everyone finds out there is no plan for Venezuela's future other than grift. Trump doesn’t care about democracy or Venezuelans anymore than he cares about the rest of us.