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Crispin's avatar

Holy crap, Wes. This is astonishingly structured and I hope we get more world citizens who can capitalize from your guide. I started my own unmanaged search for info after the 2022 invasion with telegram feeds pouring over me. The net got me deeper insight but my lack of discipline just made it too much noise so- I did what you described- i quit the following because it became so much noise and blocked me making sense of things. Too much noise with no filter makes it a sure fail. Your guide makes that clear. I may just try to jump back in…with your guide as my template. Thanks so much for your guide!

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Craig Ewing's avatar

OR....we can keep reading Wes O'Donnell's website. As long as you share your biases, Wes, I am willing to let you do all that work. I'm old and don't have the digital world hard-wired into my brain - that's a younger generation's advantage (or curse.)

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Wes O'Donnell's avatar

Deal 😎

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Robot Bender's avatar

I've been in the digital world since the Apple II was cutting edge tech. As I've gotten old, I'm having more trouble with coping with immense amounts of data as Wes discusses. I have to bow to your impressive skills, Wes.

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Steve Culshaw's avatar

Brilliant article 👏

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Robert C Culwell's avatar

Thank you for this overview.

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JG's avatar

Will be keeping this article bookmarked Wes. Excellent, wish I'd had this years ago 👍. Very detailed, thank you.

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Dan Segal's avatar

Yes, this is great, and yes intelligence analysis is about estimates. I mostly have yet to read my shelves of books on the world of intelligence, but deeply respect what I have heard from Mark Lowenthal, one of those people who might actually be the smartest person in most rooms. He’s a former analyst who literally wrote the book on intelligence, a standard if not the standard textbook, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy, now in its 8th edition (older versions are cheaper):

https://www.amazon.com/Intelligence-Secrets-Mark-M-Lowenthal/dp/1544325061

Anyway, he is certainly keen on expanding OSINT! Article reposted at CIA:

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0006122548.pdf

and he is clear on what analysts can and cannot do. Talk, Why Intelligence Fails:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uV5NqI9EK4c&pp=ygUhbWFyayBsb3dlbnRoYWwgaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlIGZhaWxz0gcJCQMKAYcqIYzv

Article, Towards a Reasonable Standard for Analysis: How Right, How Often on Which Issues?

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684520802121190#d1e380

So everything you say here rings true with me.

My problem is that although I share your view of the Russian assault on Ukraine and your hope that it will be repulsed, your dashboard etc looks like a full-time job at my slow speed, and covers only that one general area.

What I would want is just a site or a couple of sites functioning as a generally trustworthy intelligence aggregator for the planet, if only to orient myself correctly, make sense of the world, and perhaps ultimately make winning stock picks more often than losing ones!

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Neural Foundry's avatar

Your framework for combining probability thinking with AI augmentation is particulary valuable. The emphasis on treating OS INT as a citizenship skill rather than just intelligence analysis elevates it beyond technical tradecraft. The comparison to AWACS crew discipline makes the structured workflow approach more tangible for those without military experince.

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