Russia is too weak to invade NATO – That’s exactly why it might test NATO

Dutch military intelligence, the MIVD, assessed in its annual report that under the conditions most favorable to Moscow, Russia could rebuild enough combat power to mount a limited war against NATO

Maryland Army National Guard Sgt. Benjamin Kidd, left, a fires observer from the 1-107th Field Artillery Detachment, coordinates a plan of attack with an Estonian Defense Force member during the Estonian and NATO training exercise, Spring Storm, in Võru, Estonia, May 17, 2026. Spring Storm 2026 brings together US and NATO Allied and partner forces in order to train defensive and offensive operations to enhance interoperability and warfighting skills among NATO allies. The exercise is part of Sword 26, US Army Europe and Africa’s premier annual exercise series taking place from late April through May 2026 across eight countries in the High North and Baltic region.

Everybody keeps asking the same reasonable question: Isn’t Russia too battered after Ukraine to come after NATO?

Yes. Mostly. But that answer should comfort exactly nobody.

Russia has burned through armor, artillery, ammunition, aircraft, ships, officers, prestige, and an obscene amount of human life in Ukraine.

It can’t dominate Ukrainian airspace, can’t operate safely across the western Black Sea, and can’t even keep occupied Crimea comfortable anymore.

The army that was supposed to be sipping vodka in Kyiv within three days has spent years relearning that logistics, morale, and basic competence were never Western propaganda.

So no, I don’t think Putin is about to launch a clean conventional drive into NATO territory. That was never the thing to be afraid of; at least not until the early to mid-2030s.

The thing to be afraid of is quieter and harder to see. A weakened Russia has every reason to try something smaller, dirtier, and much harder to classify; some limited provocation wrapped in enough fog that NATO spends the first critical hours arguing over what it’s even looking at.

Putin only has to believe he can make the alliance hesitate.

What the Dutch just said

Dutch military intelligence, the MIVD, assessed in its annual report that under the conditions most favorable to Moscow, Russia could rebuild enough combat power to mount a limited war against a NATO member within a year of the fighting in Ukraine ending.