Putin knows nobody aside from Xi is likely to launch nukes at him, so he doesn't care about the early warning system. But if he can use this to scare us into giving him Ukraine, he will.
So, the thrust of your argument (the main danger you foresee) is that this inability to see incoming missiles is bad for us because it makes them jumpy. You don't see a problem with this inability to see incoming missiles is bad for Russia because opportunistic actors (EU, anyone?) could take advantage of it and lob nukes toward Russia. I think its pretty bad for everyone either way, but you manage to frame this all through the lens of Russia Bad. Somehow, they are bad because the EU is a demented rabble and that makes them a little wary? I think they'd have good reason to be jumpy these days.
You are probably right in both your assessments, that their system is deteriorating and that this lack of information might make them more nervous and even more aggressive. But I think this detoriation is inevitable. They are corrupt and putting their resources into war, internal security and propaganda and hybrid war towards the West. They don’t have the resources to maintain properly. So the situation is unavoidable over time. To me this means that we have been in the situation for a long time. Russia isn’t able to detect launch. But they know very well that the West will not fire nukes first. Neither will China. And they probably also know, at least fear that their own missiles are not that trustworthy. Neither are their own nukes. So what to do? Bluff and posturing. As they have done for years. Yes, there probably is an increase in risk, and even if I believe that risk is limited it is not zero. And it has increased. So the important task for West is to make sure that Russia know they will not fire first. Otherwise this probably demonstrates something we will see more of. Collapse of various strategic systems in Russia that are not directly linked to the war faring. Am I glad for this? Don’t really know, I simply want Russia to collapse. This is part of it.
Putin knows nobody aside from Xi is likely to launch nukes at him, so he doesn't care about the early warning system. But if he can use this to scare us into giving him Ukraine, he will.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident
May I recommend a book about: nuclear war, a scenario. Annie Jacobsen. Nota bene: I do not get any percentage of the sales. 😅
i cannot see what help russia gives to china, china is more technicale advanced than russia
The asswipe handling US nuke codes is Putin’s bitch, so he has no worries about an attack from America.
So, the thrust of your argument (the main danger you foresee) is that this inability to see incoming missiles is bad for us because it makes them jumpy. You don't see a problem with this inability to see incoming missiles is bad for Russia because opportunistic actors (EU, anyone?) could take advantage of it and lob nukes toward Russia. I think its pretty bad for everyone either way, but you manage to frame this all through the lens of Russia Bad. Somehow, they are bad because the EU is a demented rabble and that makes them a little wary? I think they'd have good reason to be jumpy these days.
You are probably right in both your assessments, that their system is deteriorating and that this lack of information might make them more nervous and even more aggressive. But I think this detoriation is inevitable. They are corrupt and putting their resources into war, internal security and propaganda and hybrid war towards the West. They don’t have the resources to maintain properly. So the situation is unavoidable over time. To me this means that we have been in the situation for a long time. Russia isn’t able to detect launch. But they know very well that the West will not fire nukes first. Neither will China. And they probably also know, at least fear that their own missiles are not that trustworthy. Neither are their own nukes. So what to do? Bluff and posturing. As they have done for years. Yes, there probably is an increase in risk, and even if I believe that risk is limited it is not zero. And it has increased. So the important task for West is to make sure that Russia know they will not fire first. Otherwise this probably demonstrates something we will see more of. Collapse of various strategic systems in Russia that are not directly linked to the war faring. Am I glad for this? Don’t really know, I simply want Russia to collapse. This is part of it.