We need to make sure one malignant, narcissist, billionaire Nazi never has control over critical military systems ever again. Europe is going with their own LEO constellation.
Boohoo Putin. Stinks before the fourth anniversary of the war comes and you are going backwards in your Ukraine annihilation plans.
Thank you for the insight I can’t find anywhere else. I don’t understand the Ukrainian DELTA system. How does it work and what redundancy does it have? Thanks again.
Maybe I missed it, but why did Musk require verified terminals all of a sudden? Why couldn’t the Russians verify their terminals too? It’s not like musk has been a friend of Ukraine.
Good question Rob. This might be a long answer but hopefully addresses similar questions from other readers. So, just to clarify, the order was: Ukraine asks SpaceX to draw technical guardrails → Ukraine converts those guardrails into a state-controlled access regime → Russia gets squeezed out completely.
So, like you said, what changed in Musk's head?
Several things were converging.
Russian usage was blatantly illegal from SpaceX’s side. Starlink doesn’t officially operate in Russia, Russian users are formally banned from using the service, and Russian forces were getting terminals through third countries, hacked accounts, and smuggling networks. Russian milbloggers were openly bragging about “grey” Starlinks on Telegram.
Those terminals were being used on weapons. Ukraine and independent outlets published images of Russian strike drones and BM-series UAVs with Starlink terminals physically bolted on the airframe to control attacks on Ukrainian cities. That’s a different legal and political animal than random civilians watching Netflix and SpaceX has some legal terms and conditions it has to enforce.
Ukraine is now a paying, sovereign customer with a defense ministry attached. After the early “donation” phase, Starlink in Ukraine moved into a more conventional contracted model involving the Ukrainian state, the U.S., and European partners. Once Ukraine’s MoD says, “We want a whitelist to kick Russian combat drones off your network,” it’s not a random request on X. It’s a government client telling a U.S. contractor, “Help us comply with sanctions and stop your product being used by the enemy.”
Put bluntly: Musk can afford to annoy Kyiv on social media. He can’t afford to be formally seen as enabling Russian drone strikes while his company gets paid by Western governments (and Ukraine) to support their side of the same war.
So... SpaceX implements two levers:
• A whitelist: only terminals whose IDs are on an approved list work in Ukraine.
• Speed/kinematic limits: if a terminal moves too fast (over ~75–90 km/h for a couple of minutes), it reboots and cuts the link, which is murder for fixed-wing drones.
That combo is designed to hit drones and illicit terminals hardest.
Now the second part of your question: “Why couldn’t the Russians just verify their terminals too?”
I believe verification in Ukraine runs through Ukrainian channels. Civilians and businesses have to register via Ukrainian government infrastructure (Diia or local administrative centers). Military terminals go through Ukraine’s secure DELTA/Ministry of Defense pipeline.
If you’re a Russian unit sitting in occupied territory with a smuggled Starlink, you hit a wall:
Actually, this is hot off the press, and not in my original reporting: Russian forces are now resorting to coercion: there are reports that they’re pressuring families of Ukrainian POWs to register Starlinks in their name so the terminals get onto the whitelist as “Ukrainian,” then the Russians grab them and use them at the front. Everything is moving fast as Russia is trying to mitigate the damage here. Here's the link: https://gwaramedia.com/en/russians-force-families-of-ukrainian-pows-to-register-starlinks-under-their-names-to-avoid-blocking/
Musk can afford to annoy Kiev on social media because he’s well aware that most of their “innovations” are DARPA/CIA/MIC projects that have been in development for years before this war started, and they let Ukraine claim credit for the PR.
They need his product, and he knows that Zelensky and crew are gonna be replaced after the war.
Good question. I’d like to know more about the why. Was it to cut grifters out of the system make them pay up? Somehow, I don’t buy that it was done for the good of Ukraine. Nor was that actually ever stated I think.
The other theory going around is Musket wants to publicly list SpaceX/Starlink, and being seen to tolerate illegal use of the platform wasn't a good look. Makes sense given Elon is still pretty coin-operated.
Detailed analytical and intersting, you are spoiling us. The infrastructure part is very intersting. Civilian successes becomes public backbones for things it wasn’t intended to do. A peaceful example from Norway illustrates this. In Norway the finance sector of corse is digital, has been for decades. Now the bank wants easy and safe ways of knowing who it is dealing with. Developed something called BankId. You can guess what it does from the name. Works with a mobile phone. Easy, provides secure identification of a single person. But it’s very success has become a problem. Everyone wants to use it. So it is now used for health services, for various government services, for identification of a person submitting a public tender… Instances it was not meant for. Because for health services you might want somebody to be a caretaker of someone else. But if I give the needed information and keys to the system to somebody else I am breaking the agreement with the bank. My mother in law had access to her husband’s bank accounts for years, him being relatively handicapped physically. Keying was simply impossible. But the bank discovered and made a stink. A small, peaceful example, governments need system that they own and control and regulate. Norway is working on such a system it just takes time. In the meantime I guess the defense department and all defense organizations rely on BankId. Until further notice.
Damn good read. Thanks.
Thanks, Wes. Fuck Elon.
We need to make sure one malignant, narcissist, billionaire Nazi never has control over critical military systems ever again. Europe is going with their own LEO constellation.
Boohoo Putin. Stinks before the fourth anniversary of the war comes and you are going backwards in your Ukraine annihilation plans.
The C-5 is a Lockheed airframe. 😉
I put that in there just to see if you were paying attention lol
😆 You'll find it hard to fool me on aviation topics. I'm a lifelong aviation geek.
This is why I say I have the smartest readers on Substack
Thank you for the insight I can’t find anywhere else. I don’t understand the Ukrainian DELTA system. How does it work and what redundancy does it have? Thanks again.
Excellent post, thanks Wes.
Maybe I missed it, but why did Musk require verified terminals all of a sudden? Why couldn’t the Russians verify their terminals too? It’s not like musk has been a friend of Ukraine.
Good question Rob. This might be a long answer but hopefully addresses similar questions from other readers. So, just to clarify, the order was: Ukraine asks SpaceX to draw technical guardrails → Ukraine converts those guardrails into a state-controlled access regime → Russia gets squeezed out completely.
So, like you said, what changed in Musk's head?
Several things were converging.
Russian usage was blatantly illegal from SpaceX’s side. Starlink doesn’t officially operate in Russia, Russian users are formally banned from using the service, and Russian forces were getting terminals through third countries, hacked accounts, and smuggling networks. Russian milbloggers were openly bragging about “grey” Starlinks on Telegram.
Those terminals were being used on weapons. Ukraine and independent outlets published images of Russian strike drones and BM-series UAVs with Starlink terminals physically bolted on the airframe to control attacks on Ukrainian cities. That’s a different legal and political animal than random civilians watching Netflix and SpaceX has some legal terms and conditions it has to enforce.
Ukraine is now a paying, sovereign customer with a defense ministry attached. After the early “donation” phase, Starlink in Ukraine moved into a more conventional contracted model involving the Ukrainian state, the U.S., and European partners. Once Ukraine’s MoD says, “We want a whitelist to kick Russian combat drones off your network,” it’s not a random request on X. It’s a government client telling a U.S. contractor, “Help us comply with sanctions and stop your product being used by the enemy.”
Put bluntly: Musk can afford to annoy Kyiv on social media. He can’t afford to be formally seen as enabling Russian drone strikes while his company gets paid by Western governments (and Ukraine) to support their side of the same war.
So... SpaceX implements two levers:
• A whitelist: only terminals whose IDs are on an approved list work in Ukraine.
• Speed/kinematic limits: if a terminal moves too fast (over ~75–90 km/h for a couple of minutes), it reboots and cuts the link, which is murder for fixed-wing drones.
That combo is designed to hit drones and illicit terminals hardest.
Now the second part of your question: “Why couldn’t the Russians just verify their terminals too?”
I believe verification in Ukraine runs through Ukrainian channels. Civilians and businesses have to register via Ukrainian government infrastructure (Diia or local administrative centers). Military terminals go through Ukraine’s secure DELTA/Ministry of Defense pipeline.
If you’re a Russian unit sitting in occupied territory with a smuggled Starlink, you hit a wall:
Actually, this is hot off the press, and not in my original reporting: Russian forces are now resorting to coercion: there are reports that they’re pressuring families of Ukrainian POWs to register Starlinks in their name so the terminals get onto the whitelist as “Ukrainian,” then the Russians grab them and use them at the front. Everything is moving fast as Russia is trying to mitigate the damage here. Here's the link: https://gwaramedia.com/en/russians-force-families-of-ukrainian-pows-to-register-starlinks-under-their-names-to-avoid-blocking/
Musk can afford to annoy Kiev on social media because he’s well aware that most of their “innovations” are DARPA/CIA/MIC projects that have been in development for years before this war started, and they let Ukraine claim credit for the PR.
They need his product, and he knows that Zelensky and crew are gonna be replaced after the war.
Good question. I’d like to know more about the why. Was it to cut grifters out of the system make them pay up? Somehow, I don’t buy that it was done for the good of Ukraine. Nor was that actually ever stated I think.
The other theory going around is Musket wants to publicly list SpaceX/Starlink, and being seen to tolerate illegal use of the platform wasn't a good look. Makes sense given Elon is still pretty coin-operated.
Thanks, very interesting and important. It would be very helpful if you could make a follow up, say after a month, then three months etc.
Starlink was a public utility. Making good money on death dealt out by a sanctioned war machine? Surely not?
Detailed analytical and intersting, you are spoiling us. The infrastructure part is very intersting. Civilian successes becomes public backbones for things it wasn’t intended to do. A peaceful example from Norway illustrates this. In Norway the finance sector of corse is digital, has been for decades. Now the bank wants easy and safe ways of knowing who it is dealing with. Developed something called BankId. You can guess what it does from the name. Works with a mobile phone. Easy, provides secure identification of a single person. But it’s very success has become a problem. Everyone wants to use it. So it is now used for health services, for various government services, for identification of a person submitting a public tender… Instances it was not meant for. Because for health services you might want somebody to be a caretaker of someone else. But if I give the needed information and keys to the system to somebody else I am breaking the agreement with the bank. My mother in law had access to her husband’s bank accounts for years, him being relatively handicapped physically. Keying was simply impossible. But the bank discovered and made a stink. A small, peaceful example, governments need system that they own and control and regulate. Norway is working on such a system it just takes time. In the meantime I guess the defense department and all defense organizations rely on BankId. Until further notice.
Thank you
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