This should be an interesting perspective after having just read the following article by Graham Parsons, recently kicked out of Westpoint because of being a civilian in Hegseth’s new and improved Department of War. A quote:
“The United States does not have a problem with lethality on the battlefield. We have a problem understanding how our lethality affects the world and a tendency to think martial violence can solve complex problems. We need to be better thinkers, not better killers. We need more historical and cultural understanding, not better tactical skills.”
Well said. No one really knows this, but there was a time when I almost became a civilian instructor at the US Air Force Academy. The dumbing down of our service academies will have lasting negative impacts for generations.
Re: Strangling Taiwan. If the US reflagged tankers and supply ships, do you think the Chinese would attack them? If the US sends in transport aircraft loaded with supplies? Seems like that would be a big escalation to me. 🤔
Great question, Bender. Reflagging tankers or supply ships with the Stars and Stripes is not a small step; it’s a massive tripwire.
If a U.S.-flagged commercial tanker or logistics ship were attacked, that’s not “gray zone” harassment anymore; that’s a direct strike on U.S. sovereign property under maritime law. Washington would have no choice but to respond, because failing to would make every U.S. ship fair game worldwide. Historically, this is why reflagging has been used sparingly, like the 1980s “Tanker War” in the Persian Gulf, when Kuwaiti tankers were reflagged as American and escorted by the U.S. Navy. Iran tested the waters with mines and small boat attacks, and the U.S. smacked back hard with Operation Praying Mantis. The lesson: if you hit a U.S.-flagged ship, you’re going to get hurt. China knows that.
Transport aircraft would be even riskier. Shooting down a U.S. C-17 or C-130 stuffed with humanitarian aid or military supplies would be the equivalent of Pearl Harbor by choice. That single act would bypass all the debates about “red lines” and “strategic ambiguity” and immediately lock the U.S. and China into direct conflict. Beijing’s generals may be chest-thumping nationalists, but they are not suicidal. They want to peel Taiwan away without triggering a war with the United States that they are not ready to fight.
You’re right that it would be a huge escalation. Reflagging or using U.S. transports is a political signal as much as a logistical one. It says, “If you touch this, you are not just fighting Taipei, you are fighting Washington.” That is exactly why Chinese planners would think very carefully before pulling the trigger.
True, he is a massive buffoon. But I'm counting on his Sinophobia, racism, and need to protect the microchip market to compel him to get involved (if necessary).
Excellent and thought provoking scenario development. I believe the blockade is the right approach for PRC planners, because it maximizes response ambiguity. One thing I worry about is the willingness of citizens in the United States to accept any sacrifices over Taiwan. If the war ever reaches a point where bases on the Chinese coast are attacked by US forces, there is a realistic chance that China will bring the war to the continental U.S., especially using local terror strikes (drones), cyber, and anti-satellite operations. Some sort of modern-day Pearl Harbor, using new warfare tools is not out of the question. I doubt our population has the stomach to tolerate much disruption, economic pain and terror. Debate in our fractured and increasingly isolationist political world will get ugly.
The trump regime is working assiduously to widen China’s openings to finally dominate the western Pacific and take Taiwan. Outcome #2 is the mostly likely as the US shows less reliability every day. Just a couple days ago we were treated to India’s Modi literally holding hands with Putin and xi. There goes a key ally. Trump busy stabbing Ukraine in the back and shitting on our European allies has our pacific allies wondering if the US can be trusted to stand with them. Trump is bat shit crazy and getting worse. He believes in spheres of influence. Taiwan is in china’s, just as Ukraine is in Russia’s. A couple more years of this chaos and the US will be ready to bow out of any commitment to global stability.
This should be an interesting perspective after having just read the following article by Graham Parsons, recently kicked out of Westpoint because of being a civilian in Hegseth’s new and improved Department of War. A quote:
“The United States does not have a problem with lethality on the battlefield. We have a problem understanding how our lethality affects the world and a tendency to think martial violence can solve complex problems. We need to be better thinkers, not better killers. We need more historical and cultural understanding, not better tactical skills.”
https://archive.ph/2025.08.29-204127/https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/08/13/opinion/pete-hegseth-military-national-security/
Well said. No one really knows this, but there was a time when I almost became a civilian instructor at the US Air Force Academy. The dumbing down of our service academies will have lasting negative impacts for generations.
Re: Strangling Taiwan. If the US reflagged tankers and supply ships, do you think the Chinese would attack them? If the US sends in transport aircraft loaded with supplies? Seems like that would be a big escalation to me. 🤔
Great question, Bender. Reflagging tankers or supply ships with the Stars and Stripes is not a small step; it’s a massive tripwire.
If a U.S.-flagged commercial tanker or logistics ship were attacked, that’s not “gray zone” harassment anymore; that’s a direct strike on U.S. sovereign property under maritime law. Washington would have no choice but to respond, because failing to would make every U.S. ship fair game worldwide. Historically, this is why reflagging has been used sparingly, like the 1980s “Tanker War” in the Persian Gulf, when Kuwaiti tankers were reflagged as American and escorted by the U.S. Navy. Iran tested the waters with mines and small boat attacks, and the U.S. smacked back hard with Operation Praying Mantis. The lesson: if you hit a U.S.-flagged ship, you’re going to get hurt. China knows that.
Transport aircraft would be even riskier. Shooting down a U.S. C-17 or C-130 stuffed with humanitarian aid or military supplies would be the equivalent of Pearl Harbor by choice. That single act would bypass all the debates about “red lines” and “strategic ambiguity” and immediately lock the U.S. and China into direct conflict. Beijing’s generals may be chest-thumping nationalists, but they are not suicidal. They want to peel Taiwan away without triggering a war with the United States that they are not ready to fight.
You’re right that it would be a huge escalation. Reflagging or using U.S. transports is a political signal as much as a logistical one. It says, “If you touch this, you are not just fighting Taipei, you are fighting Washington.” That is exactly why Chinese planners would think very carefully before pulling the trigger.
Thank you. I wasn't sure where that might fall in the levels of escalation.
Why are we assuming that US, led by TACO Trump, will engage in the fight?
True, he is a massive buffoon. But I'm counting on his Sinophobia, racism, and need to protect the microchip market to compel him to get involved (if necessary).
Excellent and thought provoking scenario development. I believe the blockade is the right approach for PRC planners, because it maximizes response ambiguity. One thing I worry about is the willingness of citizens in the United States to accept any sacrifices over Taiwan. If the war ever reaches a point where bases on the Chinese coast are attacked by US forces, there is a realistic chance that China will bring the war to the continental U.S., especially using local terror strikes (drones), cyber, and anti-satellite operations. Some sort of modern-day Pearl Harbor, using new warfare tools is not out of the question. I doubt our population has the stomach to tolerate much disruption, economic pain and terror. Debate in our fractured and increasingly isolationist political world will get ugly.
The trump regime is working assiduously to widen China’s openings to finally dominate the western Pacific and take Taiwan. Outcome #2 is the mostly likely as the US shows less reliability every day. Just a couple days ago we were treated to India’s Modi literally holding hands with Putin and xi. There goes a key ally. Trump busy stabbing Ukraine in the back and shitting on our European allies has our pacific allies wondering if the US can be trusted to stand with them. Trump is bat shit crazy and getting worse. He believes in spheres of influence. Taiwan is in china’s, just as Ukraine is in Russia’s. A couple more years of this chaos and the US will be ready to bow out of any commitment to global stability.