The Weekly Preflight: 5 Things to Watch in Global Security | Week of July 6, 2026

The ceasefire took two missiles to the hull overnight. NATO summit. Ebola has no vaccine, no treatment, and 1,561 cases. Russia and Ukraine are burning each other’s fuel infrastructure, and more...

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Think of this as your weekly strategic weather report exclusively for paid subscribers. Five things to watch and what could break next in war, defense tech, and geopolitics.

I see these as possible pressure points most likely to shape the next seven days.

If you want to understand how I build my OSINT dashboard, I wrote about my workflow here:

My Guide to OSINT, Noise Reduction, and Modern War Forecasting

Thanks for your patience with this week’s preflight. I was out of the office on Monday. Source links in the text where needed. Let’s jump in:

BLUF:

The ceasefire took two missiles to the hull overnight. NATO summit. Ebola has no vaccine, no treatment, and 1,561 cases. Russia and Ukraine are burning each other’s fuel infrastructure. And a new supreme leader in Tehran is going to need to prove something to his hardliners. Adjust accordingly.

1. The IRGC Just Shot at a Qatari LNG Tanker. The Ceasefire Is Functionally Over