Trump’s Iran War May Have Just Opened China’s Best Window on Taiwan
China is watching the US fumble in the Strait of Hormuz and burn scarce munitions while looking at their own Taiwan Strait challenge
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I once modeled a conventional global war for an intel forecaster competition called the Good Judgement Open. My premise started with the idea that the US was distracted and depleted because of some foolish war in Africa or the Middle East.
I have a theory about authoritarians: I think they’re fundamentally opportunists.
This led to a domino effect where China took advantage of the distraction to attempt to seize Taiwan. Seeing an opportunity amid the chaos, Putin moves into Lithuania which triggers a European response. Not to be outdone, Kim Jong Un attempts reunification of the Koreas, because now, his only meaningful opponent is the South.
To be sure, each of these dictators has their own risk calculations, but as each domino falls, the rewards look bigger and the risks appear smaller.
And suddenly, we’re in a conventional World War III.
Sounds outlandish… Until it’s not.
Today, as America relinquishes its 70-year-long role as “Team America: World Police” while simultaneously engaging in pointless ego wars… authoritarian opportunities abound.
Not everyone agreed with the “old” United States; you know, the one providing disaster relief and humanitarian assistance across the globe, on the order of half a trillion dollars in foreign humanitarian assistance since 1945 in then-year dollars, and substantially more in today’s dollars…
Not everyone agreed with our 800+ military bases scattered around the world.
And, not everyone agreed that it was the US economy combined with US military policing, together with its NATO allies, that largely kept another global war from starting after the last one.
Regardless, we are now pulling back from that role, (against the wishes of two hundred million Americans mind you), and the only wars we engage in now (Venezuela/Iran) are fought to satisfy the egos and economic interests of a few people at the top of the government.
Trump’s foreign policy is less Wilsonian, less realist in the traditional alliance-management sense, and closer to what I would call neo-mercantilism: a worldview where trade, territory, resource access, and coercive leverage matter more than rules, reputation, or long-term coalition discipline.
A modern day East India Company with an American accent.
That gets at the core problem.
Trump does not seem eager to use force for abstract order-maintenance. He seems more willing to threaten, bargain, tariff, and selectively intervene when he sees a direct economic or prestige payoff.
So, it stands to reason that once the authoritarian rulers of the world realize that the US won’t intervene unless it directly affects Trump’s economic or prestige interests, it will be open season for opportunists.
This day is coming soon.
I’ve spent years explaining why US military force is sometimes necessary, sometimes justified, and occasionally the least bad option on a lousy menu.
The Iran war doesn’t qualify for any of those categories. This was a war of choice, launched at a moment when America’s strategic priority, deterring China in the Pacific, required the exact capabilities now being burned through over the Persian Gulf.
And Beijing, which has been patient about Taiwan for decades, is watching every single launch notification with the focused attention of a chess grandmaster whose opponent just knocked their own rook off the board.
The PRC’s primary intelligence service, namely the Ministry of State Security, or MSS, is exceptionally good at what it does, and they likely have an accurate estimation of how many munitions the US military has in its inventory in any given moment.
My guess would be that China has a large intel team dedicated to watching the Iran War 24/7 to keep track of every US missile, mine, warship, and aircraft currently engaged or enroute to Southwest Asia.
Do you know what else China is watching? The world’s most powerful Navy unable to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Actually, unable is the wrong word. “Unwilling” is more accurate.
I want to point out that the world’s most powerful military still has the physical ability to force the Strait of Hormuz open.
If the United States decided to flood the zone with enough warships, aircraft, mine countermeasures assets, and escorts, it could eventually impose passage at gunpoint.
The problem is not raw US capability in tonnage. The problem is cost, risk, and political will.
James Mattis made a point this week, warning that trying to force safe passage means exposing ships to land-based threats across a very large battlespace.
So, what we are watching is not proof that the US Navy can’t fight. It is proof that Washington does not want to accept the possibility of a damaged or sunk warship, dead sailors, and the inevitable public humiliation that would follow.
And China watches all of this, takes notes, and waits. Because the Taiwan Strait is roughly analogous to the Strait of Hormuz.
