Ukraine 2025: Battling for Survival or Shaping the Future of Freedom?
What if the choices we make in 2025 could shape the lives of millions for generations to come?
As we collectively prepare for the end of the year, perhaps write down some New Year’s resolutions, buy some black-eyed peas to eat on New Year’s Day (a Southern tradition for good luck), or make plans for where we’ll be when the “ball drops,” it’s worth remembering that Ukraine is still in the fight of its life.
The truth is that Ukraine’s fight for survival and sovereignty has reached a critical juncture.
2025 will be a test.
Rising authoritarianism, humanitarian crises, and economic challenges will all converge to test both Ukraine’s endurance — and the West’s resolve — like never before.
In recent months, alarming reports of infrastructure sabotage have emerged from the Baltic region. Between Sweden, Finland, and Estonia, 4–5 undersea cable breaks have been recorded — a staggering 10,000% increase compared to six months ago.
These cables, vital to the region’s internet, represent the backbone of modern infrastructure.
The sudden uptick in incidents has raised some eyebrows in NATO, but while official investigations remain ongoing, I’ll save the investigators some time: the culprit is Moscow.
Whether it was my experience in the military, my formal education in international relations and global security, or my Russian language training in the Air Force (which gave me a window into Russian media), all signs point to classic Russian маскировка or shadow war.
Most of these cable breaks happen because a Russian or Chinese-connected ship will drag its anchor along the sea floor for several kilometers — an act that could be written off as accidental or benign so that Russia can maintain plausible deniability.
By targeting such essential systems, Russia showcases its mastery of hybrid warfare: a dash of conventional military tactics, a serving of cyberattacks, and generous helpings of strategic sabotage and assassinations — a recipe to destabilize its opponents without triggering a full-scale response.
For nations bordering the Baltic Sea, these acts of sabotage are a warning: no infrastructure is too small or too obscure to escape the reach of Russia’s shadowy operations.
Ukraine is not just a frontline state, but a critical ally to the West. Helping Ukraine is not charity — it’s self-preservation.
Let me say that again because this part is worth repeating:
For the West, helping Ukraine is not charity — it’s self-preservation.
By enabling Ukraine to resist Russian aggression, the West buys itself a buffer against further authoritarian expansion. It also keeps Kremlin resources tied up, and forces Moscow to spend vast sums of blood and treasure in a quagmire of its own making.
If we allow Ukraine to stand alone, and, God forbid, to fall, not only will Ukraine be a Russian vassal state, but Putin will enjoy a windfall of crucial material resources and political capital.
Imagine allowing Russia to run unchecked through Eastern, and eventually Western Europe; it’s like leaving the back door open for the neighborhood’s most unpredictable собака (dog). He’s just going to come into your house and piss all over everything.
Yet, this Western commitment faces a new challenge: the shifting winds of US policy.
An Uncertain Ally
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has upended the predictability of Western support for Ukraine. Trump’s campaign promises to end the war within 24 hours — even if it means pressuring Kyiv to cede territory — have raised alarms in Ukraine and beyond.
Negotiations with Russia, a non-starter since I started writing about Ukraine in 2014, are now back on the table.
This pivot has sparked anxiety in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, with opposition leader Kira Rudik warning, “The world needs to understand how crucial it is not to end the war on any idea of negotiating with Russia.”
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought assurances from Trump, but the future of US military and economic aid remains uncertain.
Critics argue that Trump’s approach undercuts years of international unity against Russian aggression, potentially emboldening Moscow. His rhetoric has included controversial statements, such as blaming Zelensky for the invasion — suggesting he “should never have let that war start.”
Really, dude?
Such remarks have me worried that Trump’s policies could lead to a fractured Western alliance.
Despite these anxieties, some in Kyiv hope Trump’s renowned pragmatism will prevail. His willingness to meet with Vladimir Putin, ostensibly to broker peace, could either reinforce Western leverage or hand Moscow a propaganda victory.
As one analyst put it, “Trump’s approach is like a high-stakes poker game — but we’re not sure if he’s bluffing or holding a pair of aces.”
Meanwhile, optimism in Kyiv hinges on the hope that Trump will recognize the strategic importance of Ukraine as a bulwark against Russian expansion.
Some advisors speculate that once faced with the complexities of the conflict, Trump may pivot to a more conventional US foreign policy approach, including increased military aid.
However, this remains speculative, and Ukraine continues to brace for potential shifts in US priorities.
Yet, as Trump’s “great solution” to the war remains a mystery, Ukraine faces mounting challenges on the battlefield and beyond.
The uncertainty surrounding American support exacerbates existing strains, leaving Kyiv in a precarious position — one that demands resilience, resourcefulness, and unyielding resolve.
A fight against the odds
Zelensky has admitted that Ukraine’s military is struggling to regain the 20% of its territory still under Russian control.
Despite waves of Western-supplied weapons, from missiles to air defense systems, Ukraine’s armed forces face big hurdles in 2025: recruitment shortages, communication breakdowns, and unrelenting pressure from Russian advances.
“Ukraine needs 160,000 more soldiers just to reach 85% staffing levels in its brigades,” notes Emil Kastehelmi of the Black Bird Group.
Recruitment drives have become a flashpoint, with viral videos showing Ukrainian men being forcibly conscripted from restaurants and bars. Desertions and refusals are rampant, further complicating the military’s efforts.
Meanwhile, Russia has seized strategic gains in Donetsk, including Avdiivka, and advanced through key towns like Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka.
The addition of North Korean troops to Moscow’s forces has only worsened Ukraine’s manpower crisis. Internal critiques, such as those from Serhii Filimonov, commander of the “Da Vinci Wolves” battalion, highlight systemic issues. “Unrealistic tasks from higher command have turned Pokrovsk’s defense into a disaster,” Filimonov laments.
Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis is no less dire. Over 3.5 million Ukrainians remain internally displaced, while 4.3 million have fled abroad. Children, caught in the crossfire, face a bleak future: half are missing in-person schooling, with many forced into underground classrooms due to Russian aerial bombardments.
UNICEF reports nearly a million Ukrainian children are entirely disconnected from formal education. The destruction of 365 schools and damage to 3,700 others since the invasion began has left the education system in tatters.
Meanwhile, thousands of abducted Ukrainian children remain in Russian custody, victims of systematic “Russification” efforts condemned as genocide by the International Criminal Court.
Despite dwindling international funding, Ukrainians are desperate to rebuild. “We cannot wait for peace to start recovery,” says Elisabeth Haslund of the UN refugee agency. Yet, as global attention shifts elsewhere, Ukraine’s humanitarian needs risk falling through the cracks.
Our sanctions against Russia are weak
While military aid garners headlines, it’s my opinion that the economic front remains under-leveraged. Western sanctions against Russia, though sweeping, have glaring loopholes.
Natural gas and metals like copper and aluminum — key pillars of Russia’s economy — remain largely untouched!
Europe’s reliance on Russian pig iron and steel slab illustrates the half-measures crippling sanctions policy. Despite initial bans, EU imports of Russian pig iron have surged, benefiting oligarchs like Vladimir Lisin, whose enterprises provide a boost to Russia’s war machine.
Take natural gas, for example. While the US banned Russian imports in early 2022, Europe continues to rely heavily on Russian supplies despite alternative sources being available.
Since the start of the war, US liquefied natural gas exports to Europe have soared, effectively cushioning the impact of cutting Russia out entirely. Yet, EU leaders drag their feet on implementing a full ban, citing energy security concerns while inadvertently funding Putin’s aggression.
Steel paints an equally grim picture. The EU banned finished Russian steel products early in the conflict, but semi-finished imports like pig iron and slabs remain largely unrestricted.
This loophole has allowed Russian exports to double since 2021, fueling both Moscow’s economy and its military-industrial complex.
In one particularly glaring case, Russian steel giant NLMK, owned by oligarch Vladimir Lisin, operates facilities across Europe and the US, directly benefiting from Western markets.
Yep, you read that right. Russian-owned NLMK operates steel plants right here in the good ole USA — one in Indiana and one in Pennsylvania; employing about 1,100 Americans.
Chris Miller of the American Enterprise Institute argues for a return to wartime economic policies: “During the World Wars, the Allies imposed total blockades. Why shouldn’t Ukraine’s allies adopt a similar approach?”
Such measures would not only choke Russia’s economy but also send a clear message of unity and resolve.
But this would likely be too big of an ask for Trump, or Congress for that matter — given how sensitive they claim to be at retaining blue-collar jobs in the Rust Belt.
But here’s the thing, folks: The path forward requires courage and a willingness to absorb short-term economic pain for the long-term gains of regional security.
But the West, and Americans in particular, have a very serious problem accepting pain now (especially economic) for some abstract future gain.
I have no doubt that if NASA said there was an asteroid heading right for Columbus, Ohio that would wipe out all life in a 500-mile radius, and the only way to defeat it is to give up social media for six months, most Americans would say, “Too bad, so sad Ohio, but you’re on your own, bruh.”
Comprehensive sanctions targeting Russia’s energy and metals sectors would deal a huge blow to its war machine. Both Europe and the US must also sanction key oligarchs like Lisin, forcing the sale of their Western assets and cutting off critical revenue streams to the Kremlin.
If the US can force the sale of TikTok because of its connections to the Chinese Communist Party and ban DJI videography drones in the country for the same reason, then we can, and should, force Russia’s NLMK to divest its American holdings.
As we close the chapter on 2024, Ukraine’s resilience remains its defining trait.
Yet, resilience alone cannot sustain a nation. The West must recalibrate its approach by embracing economic warfare, addressing humanitarian needs, and providing unwavering military support.
I certainly don’t need to tell my readers this, but Ukraine’s fight is not just about territorial integrity but about preserving democratic values in the face of authoritarian aggression.
In my mind, the stakes are clear: A free Ukraine ensures a safer Europe. The alternative is a fortress nation, isolated and perpetually under siege.
A fortress nation cannot focus on economic reforms, democratic governance, and rebuilding critical infrastructure.
Are we really prepared to tell our grandchildren that we let a young democracy die because we didn’t want to give up cheap Russian steel?
I’m not.
I’m prepared to fight.
I’m prepared to support Ukraine’s fight in 2025.
And I hope you’ll do the same.
2025 might be the most important year in the short life of liberal Western democracy.
What we do in the coming days and months, especially in Ukraine, may define “freedom” for generations yet unborn.
Слава Україні!
Bloody well argued and stated Wes. We need more voices like yours cutting though and making the civilised world aware of what is at stake. Happy New Year !
A risk adverse NATO and weak over cautious leaders in West Europe, and the US, easily intimidated by Putins bluffs, Europeans bickering amongst themselves, can not even produce enough artillery heads for Ukraine to keep Russia at bay. Not even North Korean troops are a red line for Nato to intervene. Send in nato troops to relieve Ukraine military from logistics, transport, repair and training. Form a second line a few km behind the Ukraine front lines as a red line for Russia to cross or attack. This war could have been over by the end of 2022 had nato acted decisively and halt the Russian incursion right there snd then, while the russian army was still weak and disorganized. The West was fortunate in 1940 to have leaders like Churchill, Roosevelt , Truman. The west needs them now.