the hard truth is, no one solved the ballistic missile defence on scale and in budget equation yet...
it takes 2 missiles to reliably intercept and each is at least 2-3 times costly than one being intercepted... and significantly more complicated to produce
Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been amazingly innovative in every challenge that they have faced and that adaptability will defeat Russia at every level. Ukrainians also have, in living memory, a knowledge of what happens to them if they surrender to Russia. They know in their hearts and bones that Russia winning will result in mass graves from a genocide of pure vengeance. An invader fighting for an evil old man’s ego has little motivation when compared to a culture fighting for its very survival.
Ukraine also knows that it can’t count on allies whose political whims are mostly based on self interest. This understanding will make it even harder for Russia to win this war because the understanding in Ukraine that they can only rely on themselves, means that Russians will have to fight absolutely every last Ukrainian and will never be safe in any occupied territory… EVER.
At this point Russia is not capable of reaching any of its stated goals.
Putin’s strategy since 2023 was pretty simple and typically ruthless.
Wait out the presidential election and hope for a friendly result. Feed soldiers into the meat grinder at about recruitment rate. His man won and delivered. Friendly Hungry slowed down the EU response. Knocking out the power grid over an especially severe winter was Putin’s moment. But the Ukrainians held out, and how could they do otherwise, collapse would have been so much worse.
But instead of a Ukrainian collapse 2 things happened. Europe woke up and picked up most of the slack. They were alarmed by US betrayal and aggression towards them. Greenland was the moment of overreach, there was no safe retreat for the EU and they were left without a path to inaction. Also, Ukraine successfully innovated with the assistance they got and have turned the tables in a few critical areas.
Now they’re back in a race. Can either side deliver enough punishment to break the other before the next technological breakthrough.
Chances are that both sides would suffer for years before their fronts collapse. And chances are that that’s what will happen for the next few years.
The US should really want Russia to make peace. If the Russians pivot to low casualty invasion like Ukraine has then the US military will be fully obsolete.
Wes, as a big fan of Hannibal I have to correct you here. «It raised new legions, adopted the Fabian strategy of refusing decisive battle, kept its alliance network mostly intact, and eventually took the war to Carthage itself.» Yes Rome did raise new legions, didn’t accept peace negotiation and went on to win the war. But they didn’t adopt Fabian strategies. Because Fabian strategies had been used. By Fabian, and they were not popular. They were in use between roughly the Battle of Lake Trasmine and Canne. Of course Canne was a deliberate break and failed very miserably. You can say they avoided pitched battles with Hannibal until Zama, but that’s something different. And it was as you said a victory that eventually was empty. Budding generals should remember that.
the hard truth is, no one solved the ballistic missile defence on scale and in budget equation yet...
it takes 2 missiles to reliably intercept and each is at least 2-3 times costly than one being intercepted... and significantly more complicated to produce
There are possible solutions, shoot the archer is one.
Thanks for the amazing analysis.
Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been amazingly innovative in every challenge that they have faced and that adaptability will defeat Russia at every level. Ukrainians also have, in living memory, a knowledge of what happens to them if they surrender to Russia. They know in their hearts and bones that Russia winning will result in mass graves from a genocide of pure vengeance. An invader fighting for an evil old man’s ego has little motivation when compared to a culture fighting for its very survival.
Ukraine also knows that it can’t count on allies whose political whims are mostly based on self interest. This understanding will make it even harder for Russia to win this war because the understanding in Ukraine that they can only rely on themselves, means that Russians will have to fight absolutely every last Ukrainian and will never be safe in any occupied territory… EVER.
At this point Russia is not capable of reaching any of its stated goals.
Putin’s strategy since 2023 was pretty simple and typically ruthless.
Wait out the presidential election and hope for a friendly result. Feed soldiers into the meat grinder at about recruitment rate. His man won and delivered. Friendly Hungry slowed down the EU response. Knocking out the power grid over an especially severe winter was Putin’s moment. But the Ukrainians held out, and how could they do otherwise, collapse would have been so much worse.
But instead of a Ukrainian collapse 2 things happened. Europe woke up and picked up most of the slack. They were alarmed by US betrayal and aggression towards them. Greenland was the moment of overreach, there was no safe retreat for the EU and they were left without a path to inaction. Also, Ukraine successfully innovated with the assistance they got and have turned the tables in a few critical areas.
Now they’re back in a race. Can either side deliver enough punishment to break the other before the next technological breakthrough.
Chances are that both sides would suffer for years before their fronts collapse. And chances are that that’s what will happen for the next few years.
The US should really want Russia to make peace. If the Russians pivot to low casualty invasion like Ukraine has then the US military will be fully obsolete.
Anyone who thinks the US military will be "fully obsolete" is talking out of their ass
Thanks for this. A little nitpicking about Hannibal and Rome doesn’t change this.
Wes, as a big fan of Hannibal I have to correct you here. «It raised new legions, adopted the Fabian strategy of refusing decisive battle, kept its alliance network mostly intact, and eventually took the war to Carthage itself.» Yes Rome did raise new legions, didn’t accept peace negotiation and went on to win the war. But they didn’t adopt Fabian strategies. Because Fabian strategies had been used. By Fabian, and they were not popular. They were in use between roughly the Battle of Lake Trasmine and Canne. Of course Canne was a deliberate break and failed very miserably. You can say they avoided pitched battles with Hannibal until Zama, but that’s something different. And it was as you said a victory that eventually was empty. Budding generals should remember that.
Most astute analysis I have read so far. Thank you.
I don't understand why anyone took Trump's supposed over of licensing Patriot seriously.