Wes, the story here seems--at least in part--to be about systemic incompetence when it comes to sensor discipline. Does the Ukraine's military drone industry emerge from this war as one of the best on the planet? Or would things look different against Chinese sensor fusion and defence, or American systems discipline, for that matter? What does the arms race look like in 20-40 years? We're trying to imagine the future of drone war...would welcome your expert analysis/vision. (if you've already hit this in an article and we missed it...apologies).
Hi Sugarpine, yes, Ukraine’s drone industry is now among the best in the world. Not because they had the most R&D dollars, but because they had no choice. War is the ultimate crash-course accelerator. If a drone doesn’t survive jamming, it’s redesigned by next week. If it doesn’t deliver enough explosive punch, the next production run fixes it.
Now, to your point about China or the US, both nations are building dense “sensor fusion” architectures that layer radars, IR seekers, acoustic arrays, and machine-learning classifiers. Instead of one MR-352 radar that can be blinded or knocked offline, you’d have overlapping nets of sensors feeding into AI-driven command systems. Against that, Ukraine’s $500 FPVs don’t suddenly become useless, but the attrition rate would skyrocket. The U.S. and China also emphasize electromagnetic discipline. Radios get managed, emissions are controlled, networks are hardened. Russia, by contrast, has been playing “shout louder” with its EW, which is why so much Ukrainian innovation slips through.
Okay, so 20-40 years from now? This what I see: Picture three converging trends. Autonomous Swarms: Hundreds coordinating without GPS or comms, guided by local AI. These will overwhelm even the most sophisticated air defenses. Counter-Drone Automation: We’ll see Skyranger-style autocannons, directed energy weapons, and EW “curtains” that make the air above an armored column as hostile to drones as the ground is to infantry. Human Out of the Loop: Right now, most FPV drones are flown by operators glued to screens. In 5 years, edge AI will do that job better and faster. Humans will just set the broad mission parameters.
I just wrote a big primer on AI in war that you might enjoy. You should be able to find it in my recent article list!
Paul, according to HUR, Ukraine disabled the ship's radar and struck its hull, forcing it to withdraw from combat duty for repairs. The goal was to stop it from launching Kalibr missiles, so mission accomplished, at least for a while.
...I feel like I should point out that the Whitehead self-propelled torpedo came out in *1866, literally forty years before the HMS Dreadnought was commissioned in 1906 and set the paradigm for the surface battleship for the rest of its existence.
With all due respect - and apologies for the pedantry - that hyperbole is on the same level of a-historicality as the often repeated nonsense about the advent of firearms doing away with knights in particular and heavy armour in general. (17th-century cuirassierswith their braces of pistols and shot-proof "three-quarters" armour would have been quite confused by that one...)
Wes, the story here seems--at least in part--to be about systemic incompetence when it comes to sensor discipline. Does the Ukraine's military drone industry emerge from this war as one of the best on the planet? Or would things look different against Chinese sensor fusion and defence, or American systems discipline, for that matter? What does the arms race look like in 20-40 years? We're trying to imagine the future of drone war...would welcome your expert analysis/vision. (if you've already hit this in an article and we missed it...apologies).
Hi Sugarpine, yes, Ukraine’s drone industry is now among the best in the world. Not because they had the most R&D dollars, but because they had no choice. War is the ultimate crash-course accelerator. If a drone doesn’t survive jamming, it’s redesigned by next week. If it doesn’t deliver enough explosive punch, the next production run fixes it.
Now, to your point about China or the US, both nations are building dense “sensor fusion” architectures that layer radars, IR seekers, acoustic arrays, and machine-learning classifiers. Instead of one MR-352 radar that can be blinded or knocked offline, you’d have overlapping nets of sensors feeding into AI-driven command systems. Against that, Ukraine’s $500 FPVs don’t suddenly become useless, but the attrition rate would skyrocket. The U.S. and China also emphasize electromagnetic discipline. Radios get managed, emissions are controlled, networks are hardened. Russia, by contrast, has been playing “shout louder” with its EW, which is why so much Ukrainian innovation slips through.
Okay, so 20-40 years from now? This what I see: Picture three converging trends. Autonomous Swarms: Hundreds coordinating without GPS or comms, guided by local AI. These will overwhelm even the most sophisticated air defenses. Counter-Drone Automation: We’ll see Skyranger-style autocannons, directed energy weapons, and EW “curtains” that make the air above an armored column as hostile to drones as the ground is to infantry. Human Out of the Loop: Right now, most FPV drones are flown by operators glued to screens. In 5 years, edge AI will do that job better and faster. Humans will just set the broad mission parameters.
I just wrote a big primer on AI in war that you might enjoy. You should be able to find it in my recent article list!
Thanks. What is the status of the Corvette? Any material damage?
Paul, according to HUR, Ukraine disabled the ship's radar and struck its hull, forcing it to withdraw from combat duty for repairs. The goal was to stop it from launching Kalibr missiles, so mission accomplished, at least for a while.
Great. Thank you!
Many thanks for this, Wes. Your work is invaluable to authors grappling with near-future science fiction.
“The crew barely had time to abandon ship before their ‘pride of the fleet’ became an artificial reef.”
This is fucking gold!
In fact, the whole column is.
When Ukraine finally and decisively kicks Putin’s war criminal ass, you have got to write that book! Well done!
...I feel like I should point out that the Whitehead self-propelled torpedo came out in *1866, literally forty years before the HMS Dreadnought was commissioned in 1906 and set the paradigm for the surface battleship for the rest of its existence.
With all due respect - and apologies for the pedantry - that hyperbole is on the same level of a-historicality as the often repeated nonsense about the advent of firearms doing away with knights in particular and heavy armour in general. (17th-century cuirassierswith their braces of pistols and shot-proof "three-quarters" armour would have been quite confused by that one...)
Yep, I also have Paul's question. How hard was that corvette hit?