A very exciting development. I've been waiting for something like this that could decimate the Russian capital ships hiding, so to speak, in Novosibirsk, but how can it penetrate sonar and visible discovery via exploratory drones? I'd guess that the Russians have instituted a multi-kilometer discovery net of sorts outside Novo that would pick up the presence of this upgraded sea monster with killer torpedoes.
And supposing it was used to seek out and sink capital ships where they're massed on the eastern shores of the Black Sea? Are the torpedoes strong enough, in your opinion, to actually sink capital ships? Would it be an effective deterrent to escorted convoys of oil tankers without risking blowing up the tankers themselves and creating environmental disasters?
Right now Russia's fleet of oddly-flagged tankers can get out to Russia's oil and LNG customers via both the Black and Baltic seas, with Archangel a useful but inefficient seasonal back-up way up north. If the Black and Baltic seas were made into no-go zones for the shadow tankers, that would remove Putin's ability to export his oil and in doing so, starve his military of essential funds to support the continuing hostilities in Ukraine. Or am I being over-enthusiastic?
One of those torpedoes would not be enough to sink even a small warship, such as a 3,000 ton frigate, if the crew are competent at damage control.
Just as two Neptune missiles would not be anywhere near enough to sink the 9,000 ton Moskva cruiser if the crew were at all competent at damage control.
But the Russia navy is not competent at anything, and has never even heard of "damage control". It is a bourgeoise Western concept of no interest to the proud "defenders of the Motherland".
Moskva sank because its crew had no fire-fighting training, and the fire extinguishers and other kit were stuck fast with many layers of paint.
But even a good crew might well lose a 5,000+ ton vessel to three or more such small torpedoes hitting at different points on the same side of the ship.
I marvel at Ukraine’s ingenuity and resourcefulness. Ramp up production and send some to the Baltics, Mediterranean, and elsewhere. Make nowhere safe for Russian boats.
Canada should be talking to the Ukraine about buying a few of those to look after our Arctic waters. It’s starting to look like Russia China and the United States are eyeing our northern passageway.
Not the end of capital ships, but perhaps portending a change in their nature.
Boats such as Katran may dominate coastal areas, and small bodies of sea such as the Baltic and Black Sea, but will make limited difference to warfare in oceans.
It seems obvious now: Sweden is cooperating with Ukraine to develop the Katran and test their SAAB Torped 47 torpedo in the Black Sea, so it will be no surprise to eventually see Swedish/Danish/Polish operated Katrans in the Baltic Sea. The Torped itself will become deadlier and more capable.
I haven’t been a subscriber long and haven’t read the entire catalogue but was wondering do you do an efficacy assessment on all the new tech and donated tech you detail here?
Great discussion and background but keep in mind the same weapons can be used against US capital ships so what we’re talking about is equivalent to the obsolescence of the dreadnought in WW1. Thank you.
Perhaps you're referring to the way HMS Dreadnought made all previous battleships obsolete when she was launched in 1906.
Battleships designed before her became known as "pre-Dreadnought", those designed after and "dreadnoughts". This lasted until aircraft carriers rendered all battleships obsolete in WWII.
But as to your substantive point - No.
This sort of system will be very effective in confined or coastal waters, but it is not itself a "blue water" vessel.
Major surface vessels will carry and deploy such unmanned systems, then recover, recharge, repair and re-arm them, just as an aircraft carrier does with its aircraft.
Bloody Hell that’s a serious game changer!!
A very exciting development. I've been waiting for something like this that could decimate the Russian capital ships hiding, so to speak, in Novosibirsk, but how can it penetrate sonar and visible discovery via exploratory drones? I'd guess that the Russians have instituted a multi-kilometer discovery net of sorts outside Novo that would pick up the presence of this upgraded sea monster with killer torpedoes.
And supposing it was used to seek out and sink capital ships where they're massed on the eastern shores of the Black Sea? Are the torpedoes strong enough, in your opinion, to actually sink capital ships? Would it be an effective deterrent to escorted convoys of oil tankers without risking blowing up the tankers themselves and creating environmental disasters?
Right now Russia's fleet of oddly-flagged tankers can get out to Russia's oil and LNG customers via both the Black and Baltic seas, with Archangel a useful but inefficient seasonal back-up way up north. If the Black and Baltic seas were made into no-go zones for the shadow tankers, that would remove Putin's ability to export his oil and in doing so, starve his military of essential funds to support the continuing hostilities in Ukraine. Or am I being over-enthusiastic?
One of those torpedoes would not be enough to sink even a small warship, such as a 3,000 ton frigate, if the crew are competent at damage control.
Just as two Neptune missiles would not be anywhere near enough to sink the 9,000 ton Moskva cruiser if the crew were at all competent at damage control.
But the Russia navy is not competent at anything, and has never even heard of "damage control". It is a bourgeoise Western concept of no interest to the proud "defenders of the Motherland".
Moskva sank because its crew had no fire-fighting training, and the fire extinguishers and other kit were stuck fast with many layers of paint.
But even a good crew might well lose a 5,000+ ton vessel to three or more such small torpedoes hitting at different points on the same side of the ship.
I marvel at Ukraine’s ingenuity and resourcefulness. Ramp up production and send some to the Baltics, Mediterranean, and elsewhere. Make nowhere safe for Russian boats.
This perhaps explains why Putin wants a cease-fire in the black sea while he still has some remnants of the once vaunted "Black Sea Fleet".
1. I assume someone in Taibei is paying attention!
2. These drones deny access, but what will provide dominance, if not ships?
Ships and submarines will still provide dominance. Drones such as these will be deployed from ships for defence and from subs for offence.
Within five years every US carrier group will be surrounded by patrolling unmanned craft 100 + KM out from the manned vessels.
Submarines will launch drones a few hundred km from enemy bases - or ships at sea for offensive operations.
Canada should be talking to the Ukraine about buying a few of those to look after our Arctic waters. It’s starting to look like Russia China and the United States are eyeing our northern passageway.
Not the end of capital ships, but perhaps portending a change in their nature.
Boats such as Katran may dominate coastal areas, and small bodies of sea such as the Baltic and Black Sea, but will make limited difference to warfare in oceans.
Until they're launched from warships.
Thanks for this free article! An great news your law degree!
Your support to Ucrania is very impressive and thanks for that
I don't know much about weapons and all that stuff, but this is just so cool. I'll get me coat...
Wahoo
It seems obvious now: Sweden is cooperating with Ukraine to develop the Katran and test their SAAB Torped 47 torpedo in the Black Sea, so it will be no surprise to eventually see Swedish/Danish/Polish operated Katrans in the Baltic Sea. The Torped itself will become deadlier and more capable.
Y'all better get after it Sink as much stuff as you can before they make you sign that stupid ceasefire for the Black Sea
I haven’t been a subscriber long and haven’t read the entire catalogue but was wondering do you do an efficacy assessment on all the new tech and donated tech you detail here?
Great discussion and background but keep in mind the same weapons can be used against US capital ships so what we’re talking about is equivalent to the obsolescence of the dreadnought in WW1. Thank you.
The dreadnought was not obsolescent in WWI.
Perhaps you're referring to the way HMS Dreadnought made all previous battleships obsolete when she was launched in 1906.
Battleships designed before her became known as "pre-Dreadnought", those designed after and "dreadnoughts". This lasted until aircraft carriers rendered all battleships obsolete in WWII.
But as to your substantive point - No.
This sort of system will be very effective in confined or coastal waters, but it is not itself a "blue water" vessel.
Major surface vessels will carry and deploy such unmanned systems, then recover, recharge, repair and re-arm them, just as an aircraft carrier does with its aircraft.