US to Send M109 Paladins and HAWKs: What $650 Million Buys for Ukraine

Trump boasted of “billions of dollars” in new aid. This is the first package, but Ukraine must pay for it.

Two M109 Paladin howitzers assigned to Alpha Battery, 2nd Battalion, 138th Field Artillery, stand ready to participate in staging maneuvers during the unit’s annual training at Fort Knox, Ky., June 9, 2025. While waiting, the Soldiers reconfirm their positioning and conduct a dry-fire exercise. (US Army National Guard photo by Spc. Isaiah Jackson) Public domain

Washington just approved a $330 million military support sale for Ukraine, and for once, this isn’t the start of a sitcom rerun; this package is real, signed off by the State Department and announced by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) on July 24.

Just to be clear, Ukraine is purchasing this military gear.

Let’s get into the nuts and bolts. The deal is actually split into two major buckets:

First, $180 million is earmarked for the backbone of Ukraine’s air defenses: the US-supplied radars, launchers, and missile batteries that have kept Kyiv from going full Gotham City at night. This chunk covers everything from spare parts and maintenance to upgrades, operator training, expendable supplies, accessories, and both US government and contractor engineering support. If it shoots, pings, or flashes “missile inbound” in Ukrainian, there’s money in here to keep it working.

Second, there’s $150 million set aside for Ukraine’s M109 self-propelled howitzers. For those keeping score at home, these are 155mm armored artillery pieces, the very definition of “shoot and scoot.” This isn’t necessarily new hardware; presumably it’s for keeping the existing fleet battle-ready. That means repair and overhaul, tech servicing, training for the crews, new documentation, logistics, and even the software that runs the business end of those big guns.

Since the first waves of US military aid, these howitzers have become a staple of Ukraine’s deep-fire doctrine: mobile, accurate, and a royal pain for any Russian field headquarters caught napping.

Not Just a One-Off

This isn’t happening in a vacuum. Just weeks ago, the US greenlit another $322 million sale of HAWK Phase III air defense systems, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, plus support and maintenance.

Now, I’ve been making the case for the HAWK for a very long time. These Cold War SAMs are stockpiled across the globe in huge numbers. The US even set up a HAWK refurbishment plant in Oklahoma under Biden to donate more to Ukraine.

Development of the HAWK Phase III Product Improvement Program (PIP) kicked off in 1983, with US forces getting their hands on the new gear by 1989. This wasn’t just a minor refresh; Phase III brought a sweeping overhaul to the HAWK system’s computer hardware and software across the board. The upgrade introduced a new Continuous Wave Acquisition Radar (CWAR), the AN/MPQ-62, which gave operators the ability to spot targets in a single scan… Crucial when the skies are crowded.

The system also got a big boost with the AN/MPQ-61 High Power Illuminator (HPI), now featuring the Low-Altitude Simultaneous Hawk Engagement (LASHE) system. LASHE lets the HAWK take on multiple low-flying threats at once, a game-changer for fending off saturation attacks. With these improvements, the Range Only Radar (ROR) was retired from Phase III HAWK units.

Is this enough to turn the tide?

Not on its own. But this package, and the growing list of ongoing support, gives Ukrainian planners confidence that the tools they rely on aren’t going to run dry anytime soon. A war of attrition isn’t won with headlines or Instagram videos; it’s won with maintenance contracts, spare parts, and a logistics pipeline that stays open even when the world’s attention drifts elsewhere.

If you’ve tried to follow US military aid to Ukraine this year and come away with a headache, congratulations, you’re normal.

Under the Trump administration, it’s been a hell of a ride: off, then maybe on, then off again, then on again with caveats, and now with a “bump” thanks to a deal with NATO. Geez, this is starting to feel like an abusive relationship where a therapist tells you to get away from this guy as fast as possible.

Welcome to 2025, where apparently, America’s favorite reality TV show is Trump Weapons Aid: Coldplay Edition

The only thing that’s stayed consistent is the inconsistency. So, I’m going to try to decipher this madness. Remember, there are still Biden-approved systems that haven’t yet been sent to Ukraine.

Hawk missile battery on display at a museum. By Slaunger - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0

Where We Started: The Great Biden Backlog

Let’s set the table. When President Trump took office again, he inherited a Ukraine aid program that had been running full throttle under Biden. The cupboard wasn’t bare, exactly, but it was basically pre-committed.

Biden’s folks had announced the use of every dollar that Congress appropriated for Ukraine military aid, over $68 billion across three buckets:

Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA): $34 billion. The US literally pulls weapons off its shelves and ships them out. This option pisses off conservatives because of the perception it weakens ‘Merica.

Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI): $33 billion. The US funds new production and contracts defense firms to build and ship weapons. Great for your stock portfolio if you own a lot of Lockheed.

Foreign Military Sales (FMS): $1 billion. Ukraine picks and pays for gear, usually made-to-order. This is Trump’s preferred aid and the path for the Paladins and HAWKs I mentioned above.

But here’s the rub: while Biden signed off on all that cash, $29 billion worth of gear hadn’t shipped by the time Trump showed up. That’s not a conspiracy; it’s just logistics.

PDA stuff moves fast… think months. But anything that requires new manufacturing? This takes years, not weeks. You don’t just pull a Patriot interceptor missile out of a vending machine.

The Delays: Why That Javelin Isn’t on the Frontline Yet

What happens after an announcement? A whole lot of hurry-up-and-wait. Drawdowns are quick, usually within half a year, because you’re raiding your own closets. But USAI and FMS are “made to order.” It takes about four months to sign a contract, two years for the first delivery, and another 18 months for the last item to show up.

That’s 42 months from DoD press release to the battlefield.

Weapons that were greenlit in 2022 or 2023? Most are still in the pipeline and will keep arriving through 2028, barring some bureaucratic disaster, or, let’s be honest, SECDEF Pete Hegseth arbitrarily saying we need the stuff more than Ukraine… As he did on July 11 with Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) rockets.

The Pause Heard Round the World (and Kyiv)

On July 1, the US put a temporary hold on certain key systems: Patriots, other air defenses, and ammo. The details were kept intentionally vague, which in Washington is code for “we’re still arguing about it.”

The reason, presumably, was a “global review of military support.”

The real reason is people like Elbridge Colby, the new undersecretary for policy, who are adamant that China, not Russia, is America’s real fight, and that every pallet of artillery shells sent to Ukraine is one less for the Taiwan Strait.

These people are known as the “Pacific Prioritizers,” the people who see Russia as yesterday’s problem and China as tomorrow’s existential threat.

Notably, nobody on Trump’s staff is screaming about “corruption in Ukraine” anymore, despite the recent rollback of independence protections for the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU). Four years of accounting, audits, and digital inventory management mean the tired “it’ll get stolen” narrative has finally run out of steam.

So, what’s the new playbook under Trump? It boils down to three things:

The dude loves ultimatums and deadlines. Trump has given Russia 50 days to come to a peace deal, or else face severe tariffs, including secondary tariffs for any country still doing business with Moscow.

Some continuing deliveries. Despite all the drama, the US is still honoring the backlog of gear authorized by Biden. That flow of weapons and supplies is not trivial. In fact, it’s the biggest chunk of the current military pipeline.

Oh, and the new NATO “Pass the Parcel” system. Trump and new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced a shiny new mechanism: NATO allies pull from their own stocks to send gear to Ukraine immediately. In exchange, the US will “backfill” those allies with fresh-off-the-production-line gear paid for by NATO countries.

It’s worth mentioning that several European nations, notably France and Italy, have opted out of this “Pass the Parcel” system. Germany has emerged as a leading proponent of the plan. Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently told US President Donald Trump that Berlin would play a “decisive role” in the deliveries.

It’s basically a weapons swap meet, where everyone gets something they need…eventually.

This avoids putting the entire burden on the US taxpayer, which is a political win for Trump. But, and this is crucial, the speed of delivery still depends on how fast the US defense industry can turn out new kit. As anyone who’s watched the sausage get made knows, the wheels of military-industrial bureaucracy grind slowly.

The Fine Print: What Ukraine is Actually Getting

Trump recently boasted of “billions of dollars” in new aid, and “everything, Patriots, all of them.” (Wow, he must really be mad at his dad, Vlad).

That’s technically true, but here’s the catch: most of the real punch still comes from earlier drawdown packages. The new system, while efficient on paper, still has to work its way through a tangle of approvals and procurement.

The first “bump” of extra gear is what we’re seeing with the Paladins, HAWKs, and Bradley parts. After that, expect periodic packages of a few hundred million dollars in kit every few weeks. What will Ukraine actually get in the future?

Some Patriots and high-end systems for sure, but more importantly, a lot of what really matters on the modern battlefield: drones, artillery, ammo, and air defense for the Shaheds that Russia keeps lobbing at Ukrainian cities.

And don’t expect a miracle solution for air defense. Patriots are great against ballistic missiles, but they’re expensive and rare. Like the air defense version of a Faberge egg.

It should be criminal to shoot a $4 million interceptor at a flying lawnmower, especially when Ukraine has some other homegrown options like Sky Sentinel.

The overwhelming majority of Russian attacks are from cheap, massed drones and cruise missiles. Ukraine needs quantity as much as quality, so watch for a smorgasbord of air defense systems in these aid packages.

Another twist: the question of who’s paying. While Trump loves to say Europe should pay “their fair share,” the details are fuzzy. Will NATO countries dip into frozen Russian assets to fund this, or use the EU’s new defense loan mechanism? Nobody knows, but rest assured, the lawyers are working overtime.

But here’s where things get spicy. The new weapons pipeline is partly about helping Ukraine, partly about putting pressure on Russia, and partly about placating Trump’s “America First” base. The actual strategic goal? Less about Ukraine “winning” outright, more about forcing Russia to the negotiating table, or at least making life miserable for Putin’s generals.

And while the White House wants more allied contributions, nobody’s quite figured out where all the new money will come from. European parliaments move with all the urgency of a glacier. Plus, Trump’s team is still divided, with China hawks on one side and old-school Atlanticists on the other. So don’t expect a unified doctrine anytime soon.

What Does It All Mean for Ukraine?

The good news: this older aid is not dead. The bad news: nothing happens as fast as anyone wants. So, in the interim, the always-transactional Trump will sell Ukraine weapon systems.

Deliveries that were already in motion keep coming. New NATO-coordinated drawdowns will add to the flow, but with the same old supply chain challenges. The goal is to keep Ukraine in the fight, to prevent a catastrophic collapse, and to make the Kremlin sweat. But don’t expect the US to sign up for a blank check or to prioritize Ukraine over Asia.

At the same time, Trump is making clear that America’s bins aren’t bottomless. Years of Middle East missile defense, support to Israel, and a Pacific strategy have all left the shelves looking a little bare. Refilling them will take time and a lot of money. In the meantime, Ukraine gets what’s available, not necessarily what’s ideal.

So, what’s the verdict?

The new US-NATO aid deal is a meaningful, if incremental, boost for Ukraine. It keeps weapons flowing, at least for now. But it won’t win the war outright, and it’s no panacea for the supply challenges facing the US and its allies. What it will do is buy time, shore up Ukrainian defenses, and hopefully keep enough pressure on Russia to make Putin think twice.

And that, in today’s world of global crises, is probably as much as anyone can hope for. The real winners will be the defense contractors, procurement officers, and anyone who enjoys the spectacle of Washington’s finest running around trying to turn a political hurricane into a steady supply of artillery shells.

Stay tuned. This show isn’t ending anytime soon. And as always, watch the logistics. Wars are won and lost in the details, not the headlines.

That’s it for today, friends. Thanks for reading, and as always, Слава Україні!