Weekly Preflight: 5 Things to Watch in Global Security | Week of July 27, 2026

The ceasefire pause is holding but Iran won’t call it a ceasefire, a man with a prior terrorism conviction just killed someone at Berlin Pride with a van and a machete, and more...

Taiwan contingency. US Marines with Battalion Landing Team 3/5, 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, fire at a simulated target during a defense of the amphibious task force live-fire exercise aboard San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ship USS Portland (LPD 27) in the South China Sea, June 12, 2026. The 11th MEU, embarked aboard the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group, is a persistent, combat credible force contributing to deterrence and crisis response in the US 7th Fleet area of operations. US 7th Fleet, the US Navy’s largest forward-deployed numbered fleet, routinely interacts and operates with allies and partners to preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific. (US Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Luke Rodriguez)

Think of this as your weekly intel brief exclusively for paid subscribers. Five things to watch and what could break next in war, defense tech, and geopolitics. Just the pressure points most likely to shape the next seven days.

If you want to understand how I build my OSINT dashboard, I wrote about my workflow here:

My Guide to OSINT, Noise Reduction, and Modern War Forecasting

Source links in the text. Let’s jump in:

BLUF:

The ceasefire pause is holding but Iran won’t call it a ceasefire. A man with a prior terrorism conviction just killed someone at Berlin Pride with a van and a machete. The Iran war burned through enough Patriot missiles to open a window of vulnerability over Taiwan. The Houthis are threatening to close the second major energy chokepoint. And Iran just threatened Kyiv. Adjust accordingly.

1. The Pause Is Holding. The Question Is Whether It’s an Off-Ramp or a Reload