Think of this as your weekly strategic weather report. Five pressure points around the world that could get bigger over the next seven days.
Lots of election news this week, but then again, ‘tis the season. Source links are included throughout. Let’s jump in:
BLUF:
Lula came from behind to win Brazil and halt the Latin American right-wing wave.
Students ended Putin-backed Vucic’s 14-year grip on Serbia in a landslide. But can they govern?
Israel votes tomorrow in its most consequential election in nearly 50 years.
María Corina Machado walked back into Venezuela.
And the USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to Iran.
Stay sharp.
1. Lula Just Won an Unprecedented Fourth Term. He Did It From Behind
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff Sunday night, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro after entering the second round as the underdog.
Lula had finished nearly two points behind Bolsonaro in the October 4 first round, then reversed the deficit in the runoff. No incumbent Brazilian president had ever finished second in round one and come back to win round two.
Lula, now 80, has been elected president four times.
Latin America had been moving noticeably rightward, with governments in Argentina, El Salvador, and Ecuador helping build a political current broadly friendly to Trump’s Washington. Lula’s victory shows that there are limits to it.
Flávio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, gave a speech rejecting the result and said that he may seek annulment.
How Brazilian institutions respond this time will tell us quite a bit about how much strength the Bolsonaro movement still has after the January 8 attack on government buildings in Brasília.
What I’m watching: Whether Bolsonaro actually files a formal annulment challenge with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Tribunal, and what evidence he claims supports it. I’m also watching Trump. He publicly backed Flávio.
2. Students Ended Vucic’s 14-Year Rule in Serbia. By a Landslide
This one is remarkable.
