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Richard Careaga's avatar

So. Shock and awe, followed by a long pacification ending at best in a puppet regime able to stay in power only until we declare victory and withdraw.

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Terrence Goggin's avatar

Been there , done that : Philippines 1902-1905 Vietnam 1963-1975; Iraq 2003-2008; Afghanistan 2003-2021. RIP. Why not offer the current civil and military leadership a few billion dollars to leave paid over time to insure they stay bought. That allows the insurgent Democrats an opportunity to seize power. Pay the Army to switch sides and swear allegiance to the new Democratic Republic of Venezuela. Far far and away the inexpensive WALMART plan. That’s what the Roman’s would do . If you want to do it at all, which makes no sense whatsoever!

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Richard Careaga's avatar

I can think of only one counterexample to your list—Grenada. But yeah, bribe the guys works for me.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Yes. The only argument in favor is of course that Maduro is an asshole with around a fourth of his population fled…

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Richard Careaga's avatar

Saddam was, too, but it didn’t shorten the post-invasion phase any less difficult. Ditto Taliban.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

True. And you really need a plan. And resources for long time commitment. And… so usually it is a bad idea.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Lyrics Send the Marines:

What with President Johnson practicing escalatio on the Vietnamese

And then the Dominican Crisis on top of that

It has been a nervous year

And people have begun to feel like a Christian Scientist with appendicitis

Fortunately, in times of crisis like this

America always has its number one instrument of diplomacy to fall back on

Here's a song about it

When someone makes a move

Of which we don't approve

Who is it that always intervenes?

U.N. and O.A.S

They have their place, I guess

But first - send the Marines

We'll send them all we've got

John Wayne and Randolph Scott

Remember those exciting fighting scenes?

To the shores of Tripoli

But not to Mississippoli

What do we do? We send the Marines!

For might makes right

And till they've seen the light

They've got to be protected

All their rights respected

Till somebody we like can be elected

Members of the corps

All hate the thought of war

They'd rather kill them off by peaceful means

Stop calling it aggression

Ooh, we hate that expression!

We only want the world to know

That we support the status quo

They love us everywhere we go

So when in doubt

Send the Marines!

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

I immediately notice that you follow the same doctrinal goal as Tom Lehrer did: Send the marines… untill somebody we like can be elected. I have no doubt that you and Lehrer share the same sceptisism against interventionist strategies. I even guess you have heard about him, if not look him up. Iconic singer/songwriter from the late fifties/early sixties. Died this fall actually, hadn’t written any new songs in fifty years or so. But his analysis in this song is valid. Including that we shouldn’t send troops to Mississippioli… Trump should really stop that dumbness. But below: Lyrics of Send the Marines with Tom Lehrer.

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Wes O'Donnell's avatar

I have not heard of him but will look him up!

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Craig Ewing's avatar

Wes, you haven't heard cynicism until you've heard Tom Lehrer. His songs from the 1960's will hold up as long as there are governments in power. "We will all go together, when we go..." Do let is know what you think.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Look for: That was the year that was. Songs about 1965. Includes classics like this, Who’s next (about atomic bombs for everyone - will you stay serene and calm when Alabama gets the bomb?) and others.

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Robot Bender's avatar

He was hilarious, biting, and cynical.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

In an upbeat tone!

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Robot Bender's avatar

I have a bad feeling that this will turn into another Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam. The combination of jungle and urban fighting...

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ckwrites2's avatar

Wow - sounds like the floor of a major tradeshow when every system performs flawlessly and spares are never a problem. Beautiful write-up - can see the Tom Clancy's of the world spinning up sub plots at every twist and turn. Best sellers all. But how about a Defense Budget to pay for this? And what about Sneaky Pete's anxiety about running out of bombs and bullets? Do we really have enough to do the job? And does anyone actually have the stomach to stay the course - what about no entry without an exit plan? Is this refineries burning on the nightly news again? Thanks

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Wes O'Donnell's avatar

All good questions. I thought of including some budgeting but realized the piece was already pushing 3500 words. Let's just say, "astronomical" and call it a massive waste of taxpayer dollars. To answer your other question: We probably have enough bullets. Definitely not enough bombs.

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ckwrites2's avatar

Too bad Sleepy Don can't stay awake long enough to think this through. A colossal waste indeed.

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Dan Elbert's avatar

I don't think a full invasion of Venezuela is needed. The way to go is to close a deal with some second-line figure or figures in the Venezuelan Army, together with some tactical strikes, maybe take down Maduro and a couple of their top henchmen. Gonzales as president would have full legitimacy as the actual winner of the last elections.

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Billy5959's avatar

Interesting analysis. I have a head/heart dilemma about military action Venezuela, and fortunately I will not be asked to choose. I have known a few decent Venezuelans, and all would welcome relief for their countrymen from that appalling regime. The man I know best, a small businessman broken by corruption and constant violence in his home town, would cheer the end of Maduro. But my head says the reality of foreign troops on their land would result in much civilian unrest and armed resistance, the US military would have to react, and it would be Iraq, again.

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Tankster's avatar

What a Charley Foxtrot it would be. As insane as Jack D. Ripper in Dr. Strangelove.

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Roger Corbett's avatar

So Trump proposes that the USA to attacks or even invades Venezuela because drugs originating there make there way to America, but in reality because the USA's dictator wants to depose another dictator and install a puppet government loyal to US interests. Is this any better than Russia invading Ukraine?

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Chris Fehr's avatar

As a resident of another country accused (very falsely) of supply the us with drugs and a lot of oil this isn't reassuring. What could this mena for Mexico where a lot of drugs do come from?

I can only imagine the number of Venezuelans moving north looking for safety and how this can only further damage the us reputation in the world.

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E. Lewis's avatar

It would & will look FUCKING HORRIFIC.

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Warburton Expat's avatar

A cogent and useful analysis. Alas, not one likely to be made by TBTB.

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Sorry, I have no name's avatar

Seems like some posturing going on. Another Afghanistan, anyone?

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