Donald Trump, never one to let a global crisis go unaddressed — or uncapitalized — urged Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday to broker an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.
So effing depressing. Arm Ukraine to the teeth, well past due. Remove all restrictions on targets or km into Russia. Add more economic sanctions and enforce such!!!!!! Russia must lose. No Ukrainian territories given to Russia. Recognize what Ukraine has developed and earned for NATO. Fuck Russia.
What would be the effect on the US military industrial sector if the US pulls out of NATO? An effective transfer from the US taxpayer to the Defence industry would be significantly reduced. The NATO (minus US) alliance could buy material privately from US sources at first, but they would be incentivized to find alternatives in the longer run.
When the US “gives” money for weapons to Ukraine, Israel, or Taiwan, those countries must spend the money in the US — thus propping up the private Defence industry and US aggregate demand. (Trump and the GOP Congress also want to cut spending elsewhere.)
I wouldn’t discount the pressure private Defense contractors can exert on the US Government. Trump may be more constrained than he realizes. I’m sure the Swedish and French arms industries would like less competition from the US.
This is a strange rationale for the US not pulling out of NATO, but there it is.
I get why Trump is threatening to quit NATO. He's had enough of countries such as Germany basically whittling their armed forces away so they can't fight anyone. Seriously at this point I think an armed troop of boy scouts could probably invade Germany and not be stopped until they holed up in the Bundestag. I'm fairly sure the same would apply to the low countries and probably a few other nations. Sure the UK and France have nukes, but their conventional forces are not precisely thriving. Italy now seems to be getting serious, albeit from a lower base after a decade or two of not.
Poland and some other Eastern European nations are honourable exceptions but then they can see the Russian threat as a real thing.
Yes Germany has great defense industry companies. But Germany doesn't buy enough of their product and puts usage limitations on what it permits them to sell abroad.
I'm watching carefully to see what happens to the ~8000 Russians that were in Syria. If they are extracted that's one thing. If they aren't (and that's my expectation) then that's yet another massive reputational hit to the Putin regime - possibly enough to inspire a 1917 event. That's beyond the effects of losing Syria and the ability to manage Russia's African adventures via Syria.
Plus I have to wonder where the Russian ships that were in Tartus are going to end up. St Petersburg? They can't go into the Black Sea and the other alternatives are Murmansk and Vladivostok. Any of them, but especially St P, means they'll get shore leave where they can tell their friends how effed up everything was which may lead to additional discontent inside Russia.
I get why Biden has hamstrung Ukraine (appeasement works. Obama said so.) but for Trump who is transactional I’m not so sure. The U.S. would be the seller of the weaponry needed to defeat Russia so huge income. A weakened Russia would keep China more to the sidelines as strength is a huge deterrent there. With the U.S. flexing its muscle trade negotiations with the rest of world become far less acrimonious. Why on earth would he side with Putin especially now that Russia seems more determined than ever to not back down? Trump has always swung unpredictably and whimsically so I guess we wait and hope for the sine wave to complete.
You seem to have a serious case of TDS which is clouding your thinking.
NATO countries excluding the US have a total GDP that is 10x Russia and both the UK and France have nuclear weapons. Why should they not be able to defend themselves without the US?
It’s time the US stops meddling in Europe and other countries around the world… perhaps Trump can achieve that to some small extent.
Thank you Wes, for sharing your insights. Any ceasefire cannot permit Putin to keep Ukrainian land. This misstep is a delaying gambit, allowing Putin to pick up from where he left off following a decent interval. Expecting Trump and Putin to stand by their promises regarding Ukraine echoes the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact which fell apart less than 2 years after it was signed.
He's not wrong to push Putin for a ceasefire. Currently, Russia as the upper hand and initiative, as she continues to make gains and put a hurting on Ukrainian forces which are becoming harder and harder to replace& reconstitute. Even with limitation on western weapons being lifted it has not stemmed the progress Russia makes each day. Though Russian losses may be horrific versa Western standards they are not for historic Russian & a lot more sustainable for Russia than Ukraine given the sheer numbers. At the same time, Russia has been adept at building alliances who are now providing not just material support but also on the ground manpower. Ukraine desperately needs a ceasefire to allow it some rest and refit time. Maybe even give the time to actually harden their utility infrastructure from the attack.
Trump is not pushing for a ceasefire on terms favorable to Ukraine. He is clearly interested in aiding Russia. Yes Ukraine is taking losses, but the strategy appears to be slowly giving ground to both preserve troop strength while inflicting unsustainable damage to the aggressors. Russian forces are not infinite, they are throwing untrained soldiers in a meat grinder for small gains of devastated farmland. I don’t agree that Russia has the upper hand.
You are probably right that Russia can take the losses. But can Russia take the losses, handle the returning veterans, the decline in all civil sectors, the lack of maintenance of anything, the inflation, the lack of equipment, the lack of popularity of the SMO, the recruitment problems…. The incessant strategic attacks of Ukrainian drones? I am unsure. For a time probably, but for how long? Unsure. He also risks rebellion in Caucasus, death of Lukashenko and trouble with Belorussia… yes a lot of this is probably manageable. Still he definitely has some problems.
Well, after we go bankrupt, in part by spending vast sums of money defending freeloading "allies" such as those in NATO, the NATO countries are going to have to go it alone anyways because we will be broke and can't afford a military to defend them. I'd rather try to preserve something for the American people rather than fritter away our financial stability on defending other people. Also, using vile slurs against President Trump undermines your arguments. It's childish.
Good article Wes, it is really important to point out the concerns NATO has about US withdrawal from the alliance. And, I thought this sentence sums the US role up nicely "The US acts as NATO’s backbone by supplying high-end, specialized capabilities that other members cannot individually achieve." But think it is also worth noting hat the US provides strategic depth, the ability to put a large number of reinforcements into Europe. Cold War projections of conventional conflict highlighted that with US support NATO's 'mass' was greater than Warsaw Pact. In my opinion there are huge disbenefits for the US in withdrawal from NATO. The US's preeminent position on the world stage results from being a trusted ally. A withdrawal from NATO undermines 80 years building trust, confidence and influence. Around the world, countries will start to look for other security partners reducing American geo-political influence. Further, about 28% of US defence exports went to Europe between 2019 - 2023. This percentage increased from about 11% in 2014-218 and is likely to grow as tension mounts in Europe. A withdrawal from NATO could lead to European states investing in their own defence industries, reducing US sales in Europe and making European defence companies more competitive in international markets. It does not seem like a good idea.
In the short term, right now, while the battle in Ukraine is underway, yes, agreed, the US is required and should stay engaged. But...
Over a longer term, Trump is right, there's no excuse for Europe not being able to defend itself against Russia. According to a quick ChatGPT search (corrections welcomed)....
"The EU's total economic output is roughly NINE TIMES larger than Russia's."
Europe has the money, what's been lacking is the political will. And this is because Europe became addicted to a reliance on US taxpayers to underwrite Europe's defense. That made sense in the years following WWII. But it doesn't make sense now 75 years later.
The fact that Trump is America's biggest asshole doesn't automatically make him wrong about EVERYTHING. And in this case, he's right. It's going to take some hardball to wean Europe off of it's dependency on America.
It's not just a fairness issue. Europe's weakness invites aggression.
I was stationed at Naples Italy. The NATO base there is quite new and impressive!
As I drove around the base, I couldn't help but notice ALL! the communication dishes, etc. are surrounded by chain-link fences that said STAY OUT-- US GOV PROPERTY. Quite a surprise for me....
So effing depressing. Arm Ukraine to the teeth, well past due. Remove all restrictions on targets or km into Russia. Add more economic sanctions and enforce such!!!!!! Russia must lose. No Ukrainian territories given to Russia. Recognize what Ukraine has developed and earned for NATO. Fuck Russia.
What would be the effect on the US military industrial sector if the US pulls out of NATO? An effective transfer from the US taxpayer to the Defence industry would be significantly reduced. The NATO (minus US) alliance could buy material privately from US sources at first, but they would be incentivized to find alternatives in the longer run.
When the US “gives” money for weapons to Ukraine, Israel, or Taiwan, those countries must spend the money in the US — thus propping up the private Defence industry and US aggregate demand. (Trump and the GOP Congress also want to cut spending elsewhere.)
I wouldn’t discount the pressure private Defense contractors can exert on the US Government. Trump may be more constrained than he realizes. I’m sure the Swedish and French arms industries would like less competition from the US.
This is a strange rationale for the US not pulling out of NATO, but there it is.
Agree with your points.
I get why Trump is threatening to quit NATO. He's had enough of countries such as Germany basically whittling their armed forces away so they can't fight anyone. Seriously at this point I think an armed troop of boy scouts could probably invade Germany and not be stopped until they holed up in the Bundestag. I'm fairly sure the same would apply to the low countries and probably a few other nations. Sure the UK and France have nukes, but their conventional forces are not precisely thriving. Italy now seems to be getting serious, albeit from a lower base after a decade or two of not.
Poland and some other Eastern European nations are honourable exceptions but then they can see the Russian threat as a real thing.
Yes Germany has great defense industry companies. But Germany doesn't buy enough of their product and puts usage limitations on what it permits them to sell abroad.
I'm watching carefully to see what happens to the ~8000 Russians that were in Syria. If they are extracted that's one thing. If they aren't (and that's my expectation) then that's yet another massive reputational hit to the Putin regime - possibly enough to inspire a 1917 event. That's beyond the effects of losing Syria and the ability to manage Russia's African adventures via Syria.
Plus I have to wonder where the Russian ships that were in Tartus are going to end up. St Petersburg? They can't go into the Black Sea and the other alternatives are Murmansk and Vladivostok. Any of them, but especially St P, means they'll get shore leave where they can tell their friends how effed up everything was which may lead to additional discontent inside Russia.
I get why Biden has hamstrung Ukraine (appeasement works. Obama said so.) but for Trump who is transactional I’m not so sure. The U.S. would be the seller of the weaponry needed to defeat Russia so huge income. A weakened Russia would keep China more to the sidelines as strength is a huge deterrent there. With the U.S. flexing its muscle trade negotiations with the rest of world become far less acrimonious. Why on earth would he side with Putin especially now that Russia seems more determined than ever to not back down? Trump has always swung unpredictably and whimsically so I guess we wait and hope for the sine wave to complete.
You seem to have a serious case of TDS which is clouding your thinking.
NATO countries excluding the US have a total GDP that is 10x Russia and both the UK and France have nuclear weapons. Why should they not be able to defend themselves without the US?
It’s time the US stops meddling in Europe and other countries around the world… perhaps Trump can achieve that to some small extent.
How exactly is the US "meddling" in Europe?
Is any criticism of Trump a case of Trump Derangement Syndrome?
Thank you Wes, for sharing your insights. Any ceasefire cannot permit Putin to keep Ukrainian land. This misstep is a delaying gambit, allowing Putin to pick up from where he left off following a decent interval. Expecting Trump and Putin to stand by their promises regarding Ukraine echoes the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact which fell apart less than 2 years after it was signed.
He's not wrong to push Putin for a ceasefire. Currently, Russia as the upper hand and initiative, as she continues to make gains and put a hurting on Ukrainian forces which are becoming harder and harder to replace& reconstitute. Even with limitation on western weapons being lifted it has not stemmed the progress Russia makes each day. Though Russian losses may be horrific versa Western standards they are not for historic Russian & a lot more sustainable for Russia than Ukraine given the sheer numbers. At the same time, Russia has been adept at building alliances who are now providing not just material support but also on the ground manpower. Ukraine desperately needs a ceasefire to allow it some rest and refit time. Maybe even give the time to actually harden their utility infrastructure from the attack.
Trump is not pushing for a ceasefire on terms favorable to Ukraine. He is clearly interested in aiding Russia. Yes Ukraine is taking losses, but the strategy appears to be slowly giving ground to both preserve troop strength while inflicting unsustainable damage to the aggressors. Russian forces are not infinite, they are throwing untrained soldiers in a meat grinder for small gains of devastated farmland. I don’t agree that Russia has the upper hand.
You are probably right that Russia can take the losses. But can Russia take the losses, handle the returning veterans, the decline in all civil sectors, the lack of maintenance of anything, the inflation, the lack of equipment, the lack of popularity of the SMO, the recruitment problems…. The incessant strategic attacks of Ukrainian drones? I am unsure. For a time probably, but for how long? Unsure. He also risks rebellion in Caucasus, death of Lukashenko and trouble with Belorussia… yes a lot of this is probably manageable. Still he definitely has some problems.
Well, after we go bankrupt, in part by spending vast sums of money defending freeloading "allies" such as those in NATO, the NATO countries are going to have to go it alone anyways because we will be broke and can't afford a military to defend them. I'd rather try to preserve something for the American people rather than fritter away our financial stability on defending other people. Also, using vile slurs against President Trump undermines your arguments. It's childish.
Good article Wes, it is really important to point out the concerns NATO has about US withdrawal from the alliance. And, I thought this sentence sums the US role up nicely "The US acts as NATO’s backbone by supplying high-end, specialized capabilities that other members cannot individually achieve." But think it is also worth noting hat the US provides strategic depth, the ability to put a large number of reinforcements into Europe. Cold War projections of conventional conflict highlighted that with US support NATO's 'mass' was greater than Warsaw Pact. In my opinion there are huge disbenefits for the US in withdrawal from NATO. The US's preeminent position on the world stage results from being a trusted ally. A withdrawal from NATO undermines 80 years building trust, confidence and influence. Around the world, countries will start to look for other security partners reducing American geo-political influence. Further, about 28% of US defence exports went to Europe between 2019 - 2023. This percentage increased from about 11% in 2014-218 and is likely to grow as tension mounts in Europe. A withdrawal from NATO could lead to European states investing in their own defence industries, reducing US sales in Europe and making European defence companies more competitive in international markets. It does not seem like a good idea.
Thank you for a very educational article.
In the short term, right now, while the battle in Ukraine is underway, yes, agreed, the US is required and should stay engaged. But...
Over a longer term, Trump is right, there's no excuse for Europe not being able to defend itself against Russia. According to a quick ChatGPT search (corrections welcomed)....
"The EU's total economic output is roughly NINE TIMES larger than Russia's."
Europe has the money, what's been lacking is the political will. And this is because Europe became addicted to a reliance on US taxpayers to underwrite Europe's defense. That made sense in the years following WWII. But it doesn't make sense now 75 years later.
The fact that Trump is America's biggest asshole doesn't automatically make him wrong about EVERYTHING. And in this case, he's right. It's going to take some hardball to wean Europe off of it's dependency on America.
It's not just a fairness issue. Europe's weakness invites aggression.
I was stationed at Naples Italy. The NATO base there is quite new and impressive!
As I drove around the base, I couldn't help but notice ALL! the communication dishes, etc. are surrounded by chain-link fences that said STAY OUT-- US GOV PROPERTY. Quite a surprise for me....