15 Comments
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George Hayward's avatar

A very enlightening analysis.

AJ Ong's avatar

Canada and the EU are not defenseless. Trump TACO'd from his "51st" and Greenland for a reason and it's safe to assume it wasn't because he was playing 3D chess to distract from the Epstein Files or because he pivoted. It's largely because Canada/EU holds a significant amount of US Treasury debt (much more than China). Carney's threat to release that debt causing Trump to backtrack on the 51st rhetoric last year, it caused him to backtrack on using military force for Greenland this year. A unified action (Japan, the largest holder of US debt, probably would stay loyal to US) would tank the US economy and USD. Even Trump was made to understand this. We are talking $20 for a gallon of milk, riots in the streets type of economic depression

Unfortunately all this has done is push Canada & EU towards China as a hedge. Trump Administration has accelerated the China Century

Darryl's avatar

This is a fantasy we like to tell ourselves, but it’s hardly the weapon we think it is.

AJ Ong's avatar

Doesnt make Canada invincible or the global power, didn't mean to overstate. However it is a significant weapon, as is Canada's pivot away from the US. It's sharp enough to cause Trump to pivot on 51st state and Greenland. Canada's trade deals with EU and China are a big enough deal to illicit threats from Trump. Canada is big enough to decide its own fate even if it decides to change its relationship with the US

billy mccarthy's avatar

the eu and canada hold trump (sorry) cards, american tresuary cards, if they dump them then america is a gost country

Jack Carter's avatar

Not even real need to sell them. Just stop buying (first step) and it will “be shake shake your booty” in many US admin offices. With already a huge unsustainable debt it’s gonna hurt. Ponzi scheme

Curious Alan's avatar

The response would be simple - we just reverse engineer our way out of the mess. There’s a billion dollar industry out there waiting to be built.

John Boyd's avatar

As a dual US/Canadian citizen, I am both concerned and embarrassed by the actions of the 5 time draft dodger/34 time convicted felon commanding the most powerful military force on this planet, who is such a coward that he threatens allies like Greenland/Denmark and Canada while invading Venezuela.

Only a delusional weakling believes that any of that amounts to a display of strength.

John Schwarzkopf's avatar

Wes, I was just thinking today about what would happen if the tech bros who are sucking trumps dick started cutting cell service, web access, banking services to all of us who are against the regime. I hadn't thought about them doing that to Canada and the EU. The way baldy Bezos is sucking up with the Melanoma movie I could easily see him cutting off AWS to those countries to keep Der Fuhrer happy.

On a different note, you sent me 3 gift subscriptions to give away. I don't know anyone who's a geek like me and interested in your work. Please give them to people who can spread your work. I'm fascinated by this stuff and others need to see it as well.

Richard Careaga's avatar

The current regime is trying to apply this coercion in a game in which it is playing blind man's bluff as "it."

Mike Bauer's avatar

Forcing the EU and Canada to become more independent is not in the best interest of our economy. A strategy giving others a reason to become less dependent on you and what you sell isn’t a good strategy either economically or militarily

Wilcolator's avatar

This defence policy indicates a few things:

- as we’ve suspected but haven’t conclusively proven, the current administration is heavily influenced by the West’s adversaries.

- Trump is attempting to run a global scale protection racket at the nation state level.

- America’s time as the most-powerful nation in the world is coming to a close because of internal actions. Dismantling NATO weakens the US but that seems to be what’s happening at Trump’s request (see point 1).

Neural Foundry's avatar

Exceptional analyis of the NDS contradictions. The part about treating deterrence as not-confrontation is spot-on, deterrence literally is bounded confrontation with rules. I dealt with similar strategic ambiguity issues in tech policy work and that gap period between signaling retreat while rebuilding capacity is where adversaries test boundaries. The transactional framing of alliances misses how authoritarian regimes actually calculate risk based on perceived cohesion not isolated capabilities.

Kenji Troelstrup's avatar

My fundamental problems with any purported analysis of the core strategies of this Administration rest on one question: Are we all overthinking it - Is there any thought or policy at all?

I am well aware of the capabilities and ambitions of the individuals who surround and advise this President, but, at the heart, is there a unified vision? Or, is this nation being guided by gathering of ambitious individuals with decidedly individual goals and precious little holding them together beyond a very very careful studied attention to the momentary whims and fancies of their prince?

In the end will history say we had a strong President or a strong Cabinet… or a bevy of strong hangers on?!

Brettbaker's avatar

Canada is being battled over by the Chicoms (obvious problem there) and India (who isn't going to be keeping up the defense systems, relying on us to defend their possession).