NATO has to exclude America right now, because Trump will share all plans with Putin. All American companies can no longer be trusted to be involved, not least because NATO Canada can use the same defences against an American incursion.
Europe can use the same defence in Greenland against any attempt of an American invasion, or any military moves outside of the boundary of the American military base.
The technology, once deployed, will be vulnerable to space attacks of satellite systems that provide the navigation and control systems, such as the 'fence line'. It is important that Europe quickly develops and hardens such satellite systems from American or Russian (or Chinese?) interference.
It seems to me that this quickly becomes an attack system too. Once in place, a simple shift in the 'fence line' toward the enemy positions of, say, 5km means any military in that zone will be attacked by the drones. This becomes a whole new system of battlefield warfare.
This sounds great, and especially policy makers will love it. No more soldiers to the front. But this is not how war works, or what we see happening in Ukraine. The problem with relying solely on technology is that it can easily be defeated by newer technology, be it jammers or threats we cannot imagine yet. This article by Amos Fox is crystal clear: only a Landforce can defeat a Landforce. Standoff warfare will only play a supporting role, but will not win wars.
Ukrainian soldiers predict that already this year most of the frontline will look like 20 km nomansland, totally controlled by drones from both sides. No people and no vehicles will be allowed to move inside of this zone.
That sounds like a status quo, something both sides don’t seem to want strategically. How are the Ukrainians going to recapture their lands? I imagine the Russians also have another future in mind.
I guess the answer will be the speed of innovation. The next step will be drones with AI and drone swarms. Ukraine has an advantage in the speed of innovation and in implementation of the feedback from the front. Russians are slower because of bureaucracy and corruption, but have resources and capability for the large scale industrial production. But Ukrainian production is growing as well, there is a lot of digging in Carpatian mountains right now :)
So, yes, as Zaluzgny predicted, there is a kind of stalemate, and maybe only some kind of technological breakthrough can create an advantage.
You describe the tech in comprehensible terms. I hope the European militaries are able to scale up quickly-and avoid hidebound and bureaucratic thinking. Unless things change, there is not much hope of our being a partner with them. But Putin’s arrogance may turn Trump yet!
One way or another, the sky over Ukraine does need to be closed to Russia so the idea is right as part of the solution. We can learn a lot from the experiences of the Ukraine forces and NATO, or those willing, must combine to protect the whole of Ukraine, Moldova, Romania and the Baltic states. Trump will never oppose Putin but the rest of us can.
Today, Trump is boasting about his liberation day when he hikes the price of everything sold in America at the expense of his own voters. The only thing we see abroad is that he has liberated his mouth even further from his brain. He will gain nothing from the rest of the world except further discrimination against anything made in the USA.
We need Thinking Outside the Box ideas for 21st century warfare, with built-in resiliency for changing conditions. Is this possible?
Before the US went rogue, they insisted NATO use US developed air defense systems so that updates could easily be implemented by all as they became available. Could a new European alliance (hopefully with Canada and UK) develop a mutual defense system ready for innovation on the spot as situations change?
Yes, I know if I've thought of it, people smarter than me already have.
Hi Greg, thanks for reading. I always welcome paid subscribers. My free subscribers get access to one post a week on Fridays, except when I occasionally post another public article like I did today with this one. Paid subscribers get two additional posts per week: one on Wednesday and one on Sunday, exclusive for them, plus a few extra perks. Upgrading is the best way to support my writing. I believe it’s $8/month.
But I understand it’s hard to pay for more than a few writers on Substack. That would start to add up and get expensive after a while, so no worries.
The popularity of this topic has convinced me that I should make this a YouTube video for my channel. Although, what’s popular on my Medium or Substack channels don’t always translate well to video.
I need someone who can make video motion graphics, maps actually, so I could properly show how a NATO drone wall would work in execution. I’ll put it on the slate! Quiet on the set! And action!
Excellent post and explanation - thank you.
A couple of observations....
NATO has to exclude America right now, because Trump will share all plans with Putin. All American companies can no longer be trusted to be involved, not least because NATO Canada can use the same defences against an American incursion.
Europe can use the same defence in Greenland against any attempt of an American invasion, or any military moves outside of the boundary of the American military base.
The technology, once deployed, will be vulnerable to space attacks of satellite systems that provide the navigation and control systems, such as the 'fence line'. It is important that Europe quickly develops and hardens such satellite systems from American or Russian (or Chinese?) interference.
It seems to me that this quickly becomes an attack system too. Once in place, a simple shift in the 'fence line' toward the enemy positions of, say, 5km means any military in that zone will be attacked by the drones. This becomes a whole new system of battlefield warfare.
Hmmm... lots to think about here.
This sounds great, and especially policy makers will love it. No more soldiers to the front. But this is not how war works, or what we see happening in Ukraine. The problem with relying solely on technology is that it can easily be defeated by newer technology, be it jammers or threats we cannot imagine yet. This article by Amos Fox is crystal clear: only a Landforce can defeat a Landforce. Standoff warfare will only play a supporting role, but will not win wars.
See: https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/Online-Exclusive/2025-OLE/Russia-Ukraine-War/
Ukrainian soldiers predict that already this year most of the frontline will look like 20 km nomansland, totally controlled by drones from both sides. No people and no vehicles will be allowed to move inside of this zone.
It's already happening.
That sounds like a status quo, something both sides don’t seem to want strategically. How are the Ukrainians going to recapture their lands? I imagine the Russians also have another future in mind.
I guess the answer will be the speed of innovation. The next step will be drones with AI and drone swarms. Ukraine has an advantage in the speed of innovation and in implementation of the feedback from the front. Russians are slower because of bureaucracy and corruption, but have resources and capability for the large scale industrial production. But Ukrainian production is growing as well, there is a lot of digging in Carpatian mountains right now :)
So, yes, as Zaluzgny predicted, there is a kind of stalemate, and maybe only some kind of technological breakthrough can create an advantage.
Canada should be doing exactly the same thing. It is a far better idea than buying manned fighters. Plus we could build them in Canada. 🇨🇦💪🏻💪🏻
You describe the tech in comprehensible terms. I hope the European militaries are able to scale up quickly-and avoid hidebound and bureaucratic thinking. Unless things change, there is not much hope of our being a partner with them. But Putin’s arrogance may turn Trump yet!
"hidebound and bureaucratic thinking". My god yes. Inertia is a huge barrier.
The statement bears much defensive weight and definitely signals there will be no obeying in advance…Good for Germany helping to draw a line
One way or another, the sky over Ukraine does need to be closed to Russia so the idea is right as part of the solution. We can learn a lot from the experiences of the Ukraine forces and NATO, or those willing, must combine to protect the whole of Ukraine, Moldova, Romania and the Baltic states. Trump will never oppose Putin but the rest of us can.
Today, Trump is boasting about his liberation day when he hikes the price of everything sold in America at the expense of his own voters. The only thing we see abroad is that he has liberated his mouth even further from his brain. He will gain nothing from the rest of the world except further discrimination against anything made in the USA.
Perfect. Illusory security without sacrifice.
Yes! All security is illusory anyway.
Does your dwelling have external walls, Mr. O’Donnel?
We need Thinking Outside the Box ideas for 21st century warfare, with built-in resiliency for changing conditions. Is this possible?
Before the US went rogue, they insisted NATO use US developed air defense systems so that updates could easily be implemented by all as they became available. Could a new European alliance (hopefully with Canada and UK) develop a mutual defense system ready for innovation on the spot as situations change?
Yes, I know if I've thought of it, people smarter than me already have.
💯👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👊
Interesting idea. I love the hypothetical description of events.
A mixture of land and aerial drones. This would when activated be like an active minefield, an area denial weapon.
Good idea!
We must not have a drone wall gap!
Fiction to Truth, I hope.
How can I buy you a coffee?
Hi Greg, thanks for reading. I always welcome paid subscribers. My free subscribers get access to one post a week on Fridays, except when I occasionally post another public article like I did today with this one. Paid subscribers get two additional posts per week: one on Wednesday and one on Sunday, exclusive for them, plus a few extra perks. Upgrading is the best way to support my writing. I believe it’s $8/month.
But I understand it’s hard to pay for more than a few writers on Substack. That would start to add up and get expensive after a while, so no worries.
The popularity of this topic has convinced me that I should make this a YouTube video for my channel. Although, what’s popular on my Medium or Substack channels don’t always translate well to video.
I need someone who can make video motion graphics, maps actually, so I could properly show how a NATO drone wall would work in execution. I’ll put it on the slate! Quiet on the set! And action!
While technologically it seems effective and necessary the entire big picture, it’s “flexibility”, scares the hell out of me.
That’s much smarter than mines