Please don't hesitate to report comments that violate basic civility, good order, and discipline. Reported comments are sent to me for review, and I’ll remove them or ban users when necessary. If your opinion is that a ground invasion of Iran is essential to US national security, we can respectfully disagree. But if someone can’t manage basic manners, you're out dawg. Have a great air force day!
Wes, 200,000 troops won't do it, unless you are just speaking about the combat arms; infantry, artillery and armor. When I was in Viet Nam we had 500,000 and that was not enough. Most infantry companys had about 60-80 men in them. Platoons had 15-25. It will take another, I would guess, 500,000 to keep those 200,000 in the field, fed and equiped. This also begs the question as to whether our military has acquired the equipment and expertise to fight a Ukraine type of war. There is nothing about a US uniform that provides drone protection.
Well said. I was thinking combat arms, but you're right, it would be significantly larger. The American public wouldn't stand for it. Especially if the draft makes a reappearance.
Interesting point here: «By any honest accounting, US and Israeli airpower has set Iranian military capability back by at least five years, and depending on how thoroughly the defense industrial base was hit, potentially longer.» I am not going to quibble over four, five, even ten years. Iran has also lost proxies around the Middle East. So yes, you could declare victory. Now. Because the costs are after all relatively small and the time expended on this short. But if you continue the bombing the law of diminishing returns would also hit you. Three more weeks wouldn’t give similar increase in gains, but likely similar pains. And continued time use which makes the gains less impressive and the losses (which will accrue) bigger. So it is definitely time to get out of Dodge. But I afraid it will not happen. Bibi wants more. Iq47 is angry for something. Inertia creeps in. And also, while I agree that the results are significant people’s expectations were bigger. Regime change… the overthrow of the mullas and the return of the king. Uprising of the Iranians. Nothing of this has happened. So while the military gains are immense the political not. Sigh. I really wish they could follow your advice. They will not. And one more reason. Pete Hegseth hasn’t gotten Armageddon yet. And boy does he want it.
I say continuing to obliterate IRNG targets to erode their morale while smuggling weapons to Iranian resistance is one of the only things left to continue. Seize those Iranian islands in the Gulf with oil infrastructure and then focus on opening the Hormuz. With the regime completely cut off from oil revenue, a demoralized IRNG, an emboldened and increasingly armed population, and perhaps the armed ethnic minority militias just outside Iran’s borders - then you stop bombing and see if the regime can be toppled in its weakened state by its own population (many of which have been turned by Mossad) and Israel’s support.
That's reasonable, Joe. I'd be curious to see what the CIA has on the stability, or lack of stability of the fragmented regime at the moment. We probably know better than the average Iranian citizen at this moment. The hard part is communicating with them.
Hopefully some of those 6,000 Starlink terminals got into the hands of Mossad assets in Iran. I think the unpopular thing we may need to consider is long-term occupation of those island choke points. Work from there until Iran’s ability to control traffic through Hormuz has been reduced to the point where friendly navies can escort tankers through.
Hormuz is where I think our European allies may come around on assistance in opening it and keeping it open. They need Hormuz open much more than we do. It’s in much of the world’s interest to remove Hormuz as a tool of the regime.
But do try to protect Iran’s oil infrastructure - if we do get a friendly regime, that infrastructure will be key to help Iran rebuild itself.
I feel like there are the bones of a real plan here, clearly not coming from this administration, but American and Israeli intelligence and military planners. It’s a shame this opportunity arose without competence in the administration.
Good commentary Joe, but disagree. US had essentially lost the Iran War. We have dramatically increased their resolve and anti-American radicalization. If they are smart, they know now the only way they survive in the future is to get nuclear weapon capabilities, previous middle grounds did not work. The longer the US stays in, the worse it will be. I would also add it is time to significantly decrease our assistance to Israel. Let them fight their own battles
Might be possible. But that will take time and is not certain of success. Of course no war strategy is certain. But I doubt you will manage to keep the oil revenue away from Iran, and smuggling weapons are not easy. And where should the IRCG solidifies turn in this situation ? To the newly armed opposition that definitely wants to kill them? Home and then wait for the revenge? If the IRCG support the long term goal of victory by continuing fight well it will not be easy. And US will have to deplete its stock og quite a lot of things. But it might actually be the one strategy that could end up in regime change. But that is not really a strategic goal for Trump.
Basically I think we are in it for the long haul for the Gulf itself, while Israel will be the ones working for regime change, because that IS their goal.
You are probably right about the long haul. I think Israel will work towards regime change because it creates chaos in Iran which is their most important goal. What will happen? I guess we all will be disappointed.
We have made Iran even more determined and increased their desire for nuclear weapons. Wes is spot on, we need to declare victory and leave asap. We have already lost this war, now is about minimizing damage
Well I agree, butI think we shouldn’t underestimate his religious craziness. His tattoos says a lot and he belongs to. Sect trying to promote the final battle. He wants Armageddon to come.
"I have no patience for leaders who treat military force as the first option in international relations. It is, and always should be, the last option in a civilized society." So, by extension, the US under Trump is not a civilized society. Let's check, shall we? We use military force to kill our own citizens; we set up concentration camps for children; we threaten the press for reporting the truth; our leaders use loyalty as the only test of competence. Yep. I think we've officially abandoned any claim to a civilized nation - at least at the top.
Sherry, the United States is not a member of the International Court in the Hague and accords it no jurisdiction over American citizens. We are going to have to do this on our own.
Recovery is always faster than anyone thinks possible. I remember people saying we need to declare a great moral victory and go home. We eventually did go home but without any pretense of a victory. We will eventually be where were in Afghanistan very quickly. No matter how many billions we pour into the hole, it will never firm up to an American style democracy.
I expect some out there don’t understand the truth of what you wrote, but regardless of their beliefs the US will yet again repeat history to the detriment of all of us.
Just like “long time readers” will remember what Wes said about Trump attacking Venezuela … in the first week of January, 2026.
For cripes sake, not even 90 days have passed and it’s forgotten?
No wonder the woes caused by Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan aren’t readily or accurately understood.
Gaslighting by our Government and disinformation spread via the media did not begin last night. Decades of dishonesty and cover ups by our government have caused the doubt and disillusionment prevalent in our citizenry.
• “No one starts a war--or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so--without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it.”
It gets worse: there are credible reports of a de facto mutiny aboard the USS Gerald Ford. It was headed him to its base at Norfolk VA after 270 days deployed when Trump ordered it to the Middle East. By the time it arrived off the coast of Lebanon it was reported that the heads (lavatories to us landlubbers) were blocked up all over the ship. Hmm, funny that. Then after it emerged through the Suez Canal there was a “serious” fire in the laundry that took days (!!) to extinguish. Again, funny that. Note that if these are acts of sabotage by the pissed off sailors, they do not affect actual operations but they DO send a signal. It would be a Vietnam-era sign of serious morale problems.
“if Washington were thinking strategically,” but who is left in this regime that is capable of that when so many experts in our government have been fired, have left or is ignored?
I think that the only outcome for this disastrous adventure will be your option 1: Get the fuck out of this war and stay out!
But the best outcome of all may well be that between Venezuela, Greenland, Iran and possibly Cuba, plus of course, Epstein, Trump has sunk the Republican's chances for your mid-term elections - and hopefully the 2028 elections.
Could the Democrats regain control of both houses in the mid-terms? If so I can envision unredacted Epstein files and Trump's impeachment before 2028. That is, if he is not in a dementia ward or died from natural causes before then.
For the entire world now, Trump has become as popular as a pork chop in a Mosque.
Wes -- Thank you for a compelling essay that is grounded in historical events that all of us remember (directly or indirectly), but apparently some of our "leaders" didn't learn from. You wrote with admirable clarity and force, but left me behind when you lumped everything other than an immediate withdrawal into an Option 2 of unacceptable quagmire.
This isn't a football we can casually drop and slink off the field. Trump would love it if he could simply trumpet victory and bring our ships home. But Trump voluntarily picked up a tar-baby and now he can't detach it from his fingers no matter how hard he waves his arms.
If Trump just walked away, Iran would keep the Straits closed except for its own tankers headed to China and India. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, etc. would remain bottled-up and unable to export the vast majority of oil and gas that fund their economies. Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea would suffer terribly as energy costs exploded. I foresee Iran eventually forcing its neighbors to close down every US base in the Middle East in return for them being allowed to export through the Straits again. As for Europe and the other countries dependent on imported oil and gas, I think they will be left in a terrible situation. Trump would lose control of Congress and be viewed as as a horrible loser by even the most hardcore MAGA diehards, and Trump can't accept either possibility.
Unfortunately, I think the only way to detach the tar baby is to put some boots on the ground by taking physical control of Kharg Island and select positions along the Iranian shoreline to try to smother the drones, missiles, motor boats, deployers of mines, and all the other ways Iran can attack or intimidate tankers moving through the Straits. Inevitably there will be thousands of American dead and wounded if we move into this hellhole. But unless and until we have regime change here in America, I think this is the direction our feckless leaders will feel compelled to move towards.
There are so many unknown unknowns here that there is no way to untie this Gordian knot. If we leave the Iranians will rebuild and have no incentive not to develop a nuclear bomb. If we stay our forces will be slaughtered by drones.
Please don't hesitate to report comments that violate basic civility, good order, and discipline. Reported comments are sent to me for review, and I’ll remove them or ban users when necessary. If your opinion is that a ground invasion of Iran is essential to US national security, we can respectfully disagree. But if someone can’t manage basic manners, you're out dawg. Have a great air force day!
Wes, 200,000 troops won't do it, unless you are just speaking about the combat arms; infantry, artillery and armor. When I was in Viet Nam we had 500,000 and that was not enough. Most infantry companys had about 60-80 men in them. Platoons had 15-25. It will take another, I would guess, 500,000 to keep those 200,000 in the field, fed and equiped. This also begs the question as to whether our military has acquired the equipment and expertise to fight a Ukraine type of war. There is nothing about a US uniform that provides drone protection.
Well said. I was thinking combat arms, but you're right, it would be significantly larger. The American public wouldn't stand for it. Especially if the draft makes a reappearance.
Public records are so messed up by now that this admin might be silly enough to try to draft people already rounded up and currently in detention?
And folks are very aware that Barron Trump is of age to be drafted. 👀
Interesting point here: «By any honest accounting, US and Israeli airpower has set Iranian military capability back by at least five years, and depending on how thoroughly the defense industrial base was hit, potentially longer.» I am not going to quibble over four, five, even ten years. Iran has also lost proxies around the Middle East. So yes, you could declare victory. Now. Because the costs are after all relatively small and the time expended on this short. But if you continue the bombing the law of diminishing returns would also hit you. Three more weeks wouldn’t give similar increase in gains, but likely similar pains. And continued time use which makes the gains less impressive and the losses (which will accrue) bigger. So it is definitely time to get out of Dodge. But I afraid it will not happen. Bibi wants more. Iq47 is angry for something. Inertia creeps in. And also, while I agree that the results are significant people’s expectations were bigger. Regime change… the overthrow of the mullas and the return of the king. Uprising of the Iranians. Nothing of this has happened. So while the military gains are immense the political not. Sigh. I really wish they could follow your advice. They will not. And one more reason. Pete Hegseth hasn’t gotten Armageddon yet. And boy does he want it.
Your sensible conclusion I fear will not be heeded.
I say continuing to obliterate IRNG targets to erode their morale while smuggling weapons to Iranian resistance is one of the only things left to continue. Seize those Iranian islands in the Gulf with oil infrastructure and then focus on opening the Hormuz. With the regime completely cut off from oil revenue, a demoralized IRNG, an emboldened and increasingly armed population, and perhaps the armed ethnic minority militias just outside Iran’s borders - then you stop bombing and see if the regime can be toppled in its weakened state by its own population (many of which have been turned by Mossad) and Israel’s support.
That's reasonable, Joe. I'd be curious to see what the CIA has on the stability, or lack of stability of the fragmented regime at the moment. We probably know better than the average Iranian citizen at this moment. The hard part is communicating with them.
Hopefully some of those 6,000 Starlink terminals got into the hands of Mossad assets in Iran. I think the unpopular thing we may need to consider is long-term occupation of those island choke points. Work from there until Iran’s ability to control traffic through Hormuz has been reduced to the point where friendly navies can escort tankers through.
Hormuz is where I think our European allies may come around on assistance in opening it and keeping it open. They need Hormuz open much more than we do. It’s in much of the world’s interest to remove Hormuz as a tool of the regime.
But do try to protect Iran’s oil infrastructure - if we do get a friendly regime, that infrastructure will be key to help Iran rebuild itself.
I feel like there are the bones of a real plan here, clearly not coming from this administration, but American and Israeli intelligence and military planners. It’s a shame this opportunity arose without competence in the administration.
Good commentary Joe, but disagree. US had essentially lost the Iran War. We have dramatically increased their resolve and anti-American radicalization. If they are smart, they know now the only way they survive in the future is to get nuclear weapon capabilities, previous middle grounds did not work. The longer the US stays in, the worse it will be. I would also add it is time to significantly decrease our assistance to Israel. Let them fight their own battles
Might be possible. But that will take time and is not certain of success. Of course no war strategy is certain. But I doubt you will manage to keep the oil revenue away from Iran, and smuggling weapons are not easy. And where should the IRCG solidifies turn in this situation ? To the newly armed opposition that definitely wants to kill them? Home and then wait for the revenge? If the IRCG support the long term goal of victory by continuing fight well it will not be easy. And US will have to deplete its stock og quite a lot of things. But it might actually be the one strategy that could end up in regime change. But that is not really a strategic goal for Trump.
Basically I think we are in it for the long haul for the Gulf itself, while Israel will be the ones working for regime change, because that IS their goal.
You are probably right about the long haul. I think Israel will work towards regime change because it creates chaos in Iran which is their most important goal. What will happen? I guess we all will be disappointed.
We have made Iran even more determined and increased their desire for nuclear weapons. Wes is spot on, we need to declare victory and leave asap. We have already lost this war, now is about minimizing damage
I’ve been describing Hegseth as a wannabe ‘wannabe macho man.’ Is that a fair assessment?
Well I agree, butI think we shouldn’t underestimate his religious craziness. His tattoos says a lot and he belongs to. Sect trying to promote the final battle. He wants Armageddon to come.
"I have no patience for leaders who treat military force as the first option in international relations. It is, and always should be, the last option in a civilized society." So, by extension, the US under Trump is not a civilized society. Let's check, shall we? We use military force to kill our own citizens; we set up concentration camps for children; we threaten the press for reporting the truth; our leaders use loyalty as the only test of competence. Yep. I think we've officially abandoned any claim to a civilized nation - at least at the top.
My dream is to see Trump standing in the docket at The Hague.
"The moral arc of the Universe is long, but it bends toward justice."
Sherry, the United States is not a member of the International Court in the Hague and accords it no jurisdiction over American citizens. We are going to have to do this on our own.
Recovery is always faster than anyone thinks possible. I remember people saying we need to declare a great moral victory and go home. We eventually did go home but without any pretense of a victory. We will eventually be where were in Afghanistan very quickly. No matter how many billions we pour into the hole, it will never firm up to an American style democracy.
I expect some out there don’t understand the truth of what you wrote, but regardless of their beliefs the US will yet again repeat history to the detriment of all of us.
Just like “long time readers” will remember what Wes said about Trump attacking Venezuela … in the first week of January, 2026.
For cripes sake, not even 90 days have passed and it’s forgotten?
No wonder the woes caused by Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan aren’t readily or accurately understood.
Gaslighting by our Government and disinformation spread via the media did not begin last night. Decades of dishonesty and cover ups by our government have caused the doubt and disillusionment prevalent in our citizenry.
• “No one starts a war--or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so--without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it.”
Von Clausewitz, On War.
Cited from https://www.clausewitz.com/readings/Cquotations.htm
Btw, I think a better title to your piece would be: We have won in Iran, time to get out. You haven’t lost yet.
It gets worse: there are credible reports of a de facto mutiny aboard the USS Gerald Ford. It was headed him to its base at Norfolk VA after 270 days deployed when Trump ordered it to the Middle East. By the time it arrived off the coast of Lebanon it was reported that the heads (lavatories to us landlubbers) were blocked up all over the ship. Hmm, funny that. Then after it emerged through the Suez Canal there was a “serious” fire in the laundry that took days (!!) to extinguish. Again, funny that. Note that if these are acts of sabotage by the pissed off sailors, they do not affect actual operations but they DO send a signal. It would be a Vietnam-era sign of serious morale problems.
Sailors need R&R. Even WW2 subs kept most deployments to under a year - at least, I know the USS Silversides did.
Wes, this is exactly the right diagnosis of the problem: tactical excellence without a defined political end state. That’s the pattern.
But there is one direction this could be turned—if Washington were thinking strategically instead of operationally.
It is not about “defeating Iran.”
It is about controlling escalation and leverage.
And the center of gravity for that is not Tehran.
It is the Strait of Hormuz.
If the US wanted a coherent strategy short of invasion, the objective would be very different:
not regime change, not occupation—but guaranteed control of the maritime chokepoint that underpins Iran’s entire coercive model.
Because right now, Iran’s path to “winning by surviving” depends on one thing:
its ability to disrupt global energy flows and impose economic pain externally.
Hormuz is the lever.
Shift the focus there, and the logic of the war changes:
You deny Iran its most effective asymmetric tool
You reassure global markets instead of destabilising them
You impose containment rather than chase collapse
You create a definable, limited end state: secure passage, not political transformation
That is a strategy.
But here’s the catch—and it reinforces your argument more than it contradicts it:
Even a “Hormuz strategy” is not clean.
Because controlling that strait is not just naval presence. It means:
persistent air and missile defence against coastal batteries
suppression of IRGC naval swarm tactics
mine warfare and constant clearance operations
escalation risk every single day
In other words, it still risks becoming a slow-burn war of endurance, just at sea instead of on land.
So yes—you’re right that Washington is drifting.
But the real failure is not just the lack of an end state.
It’s that the one available limited strategy—control of Hormuz and containment of escalation—has not even been clearly articulated.
Instead, we’re watching a campaign designed to “degrade” Iran…
while leaving intact the one tool that allows Iran to outlast the United States politically.
And that’s how you end up replaying Vietnam dynamics—
not in the jungle this time, but in global energy markets.
Well said, brother. We're in a pickle far bigger than most people realize.
“if Washington were thinking strategically,” but who is left in this regime that is capable of that when so many experts in our government have been fired, have left or is ignored?
I think that the only outcome for this disastrous adventure will be your option 1: Get the fuck out of this war and stay out!
But the best outcome of all may well be that between Venezuela, Greenland, Iran and possibly Cuba, plus of course, Epstein, Trump has sunk the Republican's chances for your mid-term elections - and hopefully the 2028 elections.
Could the Democrats regain control of both houses in the mid-terms? If so I can envision unredacted Epstein files and Trump's impeachment before 2028. That is, if he is not in a dementia ward or died from natural causes before then.
For the entire world now, Trump has become as popular as a pork chop in a Mosque.
“ It watched the United States in Vietnam.” You are mistaken. The regime didn’t exist then.
Otherwise, a decent piece. Thanks.
Wes -- Thank you for a compelling essay that is grounded in historical events that all of us remember (directly or indirectly), but apparently some of our "leaders" didn't learn from. You wrote with admirable clarity and force, but left me behind when you lumped everything other than an immediate withdrawal into an Option 2 of unacceptable quagmire.
This isn't a football we can casually drop and slink off the field. Trump would love it if he could simply trumpet victory and bring our ships home. But Trump voluntarily picked up a tar-baby and now he can't detach it from his fingers no matter how hard he waves his arms.
If Trump just walked away, Iran would keep the Straits closed except for its own tankers headed to China and India. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, etc. would remain bottled-up and unable to export the vast majority of oil and gas that fund their economies. Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea would suffer terribly as energy costs exploded. I foresee Iran eventually forcing its neighbors to close down every US base in the Middle East in return for them being allowed to export through the Straits again. As for Europe and the other countries dependent on imported oil and gas, I think they will be left in a terrible situation. Trump would lose control of Congress and be viewed as as a horrible loser by even the most hardcore MAGA diehards, and Trump can't accept either possibility.
Unfortunately, I think the only way to detach the tar baby is to put some boots on the ground by taking physical control of Kharg Island and select positions along the Iranian shoreline to try to smother the drones, missiles, motor boats, deployers of mines, and all the other ways Iran can attack or intimidate tankers moving through the Straits. Inevitably there will be thousands of American dead and wounded if we move into this hellhole. But unless and until we have regime change here in America, I think this is the direction our feckless leaders will feel compelled to move towards.
There are so many unknown unknowns here that there is no way to untie this Gordian knot. If we leave the Iranians will rebuild and have no incentive not to develop a nuclear bomb. If we stay our forces will be slaughtered by drones.