I went through your article and started wondering if a different approach would work while a new generation of “patriots “ were developing.
The missile crashing into missile seems so .. um… hi and miss.
I think about how typically a shotgun is used for trap and skeet and smaller drones.
Instead of trying to use one high speed object to hit another high speed object, would it be possible for the incredibly skilled Ukrainian air defence teams to set up grids of sky with smaller fast explosive interceptors? Would it be conceivable that with many drone operators covering a small area of sky, they could intercept and blow up a ballistic missile descending in their zone?
I am not military or in any way mathematically inclined so am asking what you think? Crazy?
Not crazy at all, Susan. I actually had a section in the article dedicated to fragmentation warhead missiles but I deleted it because the piece was already getting quite long. You’re basically describing area defense or a flak-style “shotgun” approach, and militaries have used versions of that idea for decades.
The problem is a ballistic missile comes in extremely fast, often at several times the speed of sound, on a steep path, with only seconds to engage near the target. So the defense system has to know exactly where it’ll be, put the interceptor there at the right instant, and deliver enough energy or fragments to destroy the warhead.
A cloud of smaller explosive interceptors sounds intuitive, but it would need to be unbelievably dense, perfectly timed, and positioned in the missile’s path. Otherwise the missile just punches through the empty spaces. That’s why Patriot-class systems use powerful radars, automated fire control, and very fast interceptors. They’re already doing a more precise version of the “shotgun” concept, just with much better math.
For Shaheds and slower cruise missiles, drone interceptors make a ton of sense. For ballistic missiles, the window is so small that human drone operators probably can’t react fast enough. The future may include cheaper distributed interceptors, but they’ll need to be radar-guided, automated, and networked, probably with AI help. Human skill still matters, but against ballistic missiles, the machine has to do most of the timing.
Unfortunately, the ugly truth is that Ukraine is teetering on the brink of survivability. I honestly don’t know how much longer it can hang on, so when I read about things that are coming in 12, 18, 24 months, my first (incredibly painful) thought is, will Ukraine survive long enough to see it? We get all giddy at the sight of another burning Wildberries warehouse, but few talk about the fact that Odessa port infrastructure is shredded, there isn’t a working gas station left between Odessa and Poltava, and for every Wildberries warehouse there are multiple destroyed Ukrainian logistic hubs from Nova Poshta, Rozetka or others. Ukraine may be a little craftier, scrappier, cleverer, but Ruzzia is just too damn big and they don’t give a shit how much they lose as long as they destroy Ukraine first. The ugly truth is that even if Ukraine had patriot interceptors TODAY, I am not sure it would change the equation enough to reach a different outcome, rather than just prolong the current one ;(
I worry about this a lot actually. I can’t imagine as invested as Europe is in Ukraine now after more than four years and billions upon billions spent that they would allow Kyiv to fall. There is a new US intelligence report I’m currently analyzing that says Putin may attempt a small scale test against NATO as early as this fall. That’s only a couple months away. He thinks the alliance is currently fractured.
I follow a number of Ukrainian citizens that live around Kyiv and the feeling is defiant but also seriously traumatized. Russia has China, North Korea, Iran and Trump backing them and Ukraine has a very hesitant EU and NATO. I agree that the balance doesn’t look very good for the coming year.
I have been hoping that along with Ukraine building hospitals and schools under ground, they are quietly building much more infrastructure underground… I think about the underground cities in Cappadocia region.
I don’t think that Russia has a chance of holding Ukraine in the long run because occupation of a people that hate you is difficult, but they may have the ability to destroy much of Ukraine’s infrastructure and resources.
Surrender to Russia is not an option for Ukraine as history shows that leads to mass graves and unbelievable atrocities against the population… I think that alone will eventually lead Ukraine to prevail… it’s just how horrible the cost will be.
That's awesome lol I don't know why that patch makes me laugh so hard. I just find military operation naming conventions so ridiculous that anything that lampoons them is okay in my book.
Another excellent post, Wes. Your knowledge of this subject is encyclopedic! It's a pleasure to read your writing, especially for an old, over the hill Air Defense Officer! Thanks!
Just an unofficial morale patch made by some Air Force guys last February to poke fun at the whole endeavor. The fact that Fury can sound like Furry, and there’s a sexual subset of Furry fandom, (people dressing up as anthropomorphic animals and having somewhat anonymous relations) makes it slightly funnier lol
What they could do is, when they have intelligence of when and roughly where from they will come under attack, to sortie jet powered drones and/or cruise missiles which loiter while evading Russian air defences. It will not kill the incoming ballistic missile, but the fact that they are in the air gives them eyes in the air closer to and pointed at the area of launch and a rapid reaction capability that strikes the launchers before they can run away. Even a success rate of 10% kills launchers, scarcer than missiles.
Sure, some drones will be wasted on non events. But, at the rate the Russians are flinging ballistic missiles that could wear down launcher numbers and constrict what is being faced. Shoot the archer that reveals itself with an arrow that was already in the air.
HAWK can hit some tactical ballistic missiles in limited circumstances, especially if cued by a better 3D radar or another sensor. Looks like I need to make a new video! Historically, HAWK did demonstrate anti-tactical ballistic missile capability. In 1988, a HAWK used Patriot acquisition data to intercept a short-range ballistic missile target at White Sands, and later upgrades improved its short-range anti-tactical ballistic missile role. But those were controlled test conditions against older-style targets, not a guarantee it can reliably defend Kyiv from modern Russian ballistic salvos.
So this $108.1 million sustainment sale is still useful. Reuters says it supports Ukraine’s HAWK missile system, and the earlier DSCA package covered spare parts, overhaul, training, missile repair, and technical support. That keeps HAWK batteries alive for drones, aircraft, and cruise missiles, which frees Patriot and SAMP/T interceptors for the harder ballistic targets.
100% of Russia's ballistic missiles are currently getting through to hit Kyiv; which implies that Ukraine is not using its HAWKs for the ballistic missile threat. I'd like to know why.
This morning I was wondering what was out there (if anything) to counter the current ballistic missile threat to Ukraine? A few days ago I had a similar thought about glide bombs.
And there you are covering both topics in the last two days. Maybe I am beginning to tune into your way of scanning the defence horizon?
Thanks Graham. We're thinking along the same threat matrix. I'm worried about Kyiv because there will be no more Patriots coming. I think I buried the lede in the article. Ukraine should likely pivot it's long-range strike campaign away from oil temporarily and go after the ballistic threat on the ground.
Yeah totally. I was wondering why we've only seen a couple of hits on the big missile manufacturing complexes by Ukraine. I guess those flamingos aren't being produced quite as quickly as was first hoped. I know they are slow-moving and easier to shoot down but a number got through to hit that old Stalingrad factory area about a month ago which I believe was involved in Khinsal production.
It is like a horrific rock-paper-scissors contest sometimes. One side hurts the other side some way and forces them to react. That side then digs back and forces the other to do something different.
"Kill the archer before he releases the arrow"... as the US has seen Iran practice in recent months so effectively, surprisingly taking the US completely off guard.
Hi Tobias, good question. IRIS-T SLX may eventually help fill the gap as a longer-range European air-defense layer, but I wouldn’t treat it as a near-term Patriot replacement for Iskander/Kinzhal-type ballistic threats. HYDEF is even farther out: it’s aimed at future 2035-plus hypersonic/high-velocity threats. So both are important, but neither solves Kyiv’s current interceptor shortage. FREYJA is probably the near-term European effort to watch.
I went through your article and started wondering if a different approach would work while a new generation of “patriots “ were developing.
The missile crashing into missile seems so .. um… hi and miss.
I think about how typically a shotgun is used for trap and skeet and smaller drones.
Instead of trying to use one high speed object to hit another high speed object, would it be possible for the incredibly skilled Ukrainian air defence teams to set up grids of sky with smaller fast explosive interceptors? Would it be conceivable that with many drone operators covering a small area of sky, they could intercept and blow up a ballistic missile descending in their zone?
I am not military or in any way mathematically inclined so am asking what you think? Crazy?
Not crazy at all, Susan. I actually had a section in the article dedicated to fragmentation warhead missiles but I deleted it because the piece was already getting quite long. You’re basically describing area defense or a flak-style “shotgun” approach, and militaries have used versions of that idea for decades.
The problem is a ballistic missile comes in extremely fast, often at several times the speed of sound, on a steep path, with only seconds to engage near the target. So the defense system has to know exactly where it’ll be, put the interceptor there at the right instant, and deliver enough energy or fragments to destroy the warhead.
A cloud of smaller explosive interceptors sounds intuitive, but it would need to be unbelievably dense, perfectly timed, and positioned in the missile’s path. Otherwise the missile just punches through the empty spaces. That’s why Patriot-class systems use powerful radars, automated fire control, and very fast interceptors. They’re already doing a more precise version of the “shotgun” concept, just with much better math.
For Shaheds and slower cruise missiles, drone interceptors make a ton of sense. For ballistic missiles, the window is so small that human drone operators probably can’t react fast enough. The future may include cheaper distributed interceptors, but they’ll need to be radar-guided, automated, and networked, probably with AI help. Human skill still matters, but against ballistic missiles, the machine has to do most of the timing.
Thank you.
So the best option is destroying the ballistic missiles on the ground wherever they are stored. Ukraine is getting good at that too 🇺🇦😎
Unfortunately, the ugly truth is that Ukraine is teetering on the brink of survivability. I honestly don’t know how much longer it can hang on, so when I read about things that are coming in 12, 18, 24 months, my first (incredibly painful) thought is, will Ukraine survive long enough to see it? We get all giddy at the sight of another burning Wildberries warehouse, but few talk about the fact that Odessa port infrastructure is shredded, there isn’t a working gas station left between Odessa and Poltava, and for every Wildberries warehouse there are multiple destroyed Ukrainian logistic hubs from Nova Poshta, Rozetka or others. Ukraine may be a little craftier, scrappier, cleverer, but Ruzzia is just too damn big and they don’t give a shit how much they lose as long as they destroy Ukraine first. The ugly truth is that even if Ukraine had patriot interceptors TODAY, I am not sure it would change the equation enough to reach a different outcome, rather than just prolong the current one ;(
I worry about this a lot actually. I can’t imagine as invested as Europe is in Ukraine now after more than four years and billions upon billions spent that they would allow Kyiv to fall. There is a new US intelligence report I’m currently analyzing that says Putin may attempt a small scale test against NATO as early as this fall. That’s only a couple months away. He thinks the alliance is currently fractured.
I follow a number of Ukrainian citizens that live around Kyiv and the feeling is defiant but also seriously traumatized. Russia has China, North Korea, Iran and Trump backing them and Ukraine has a very hesitant EU and NATO. I agree that the balance doesn’t look very good for the coming year.
I have been hoping that along with Ukraine building hospitals and schools under ground, they are quietly building much more infrastructure underground… I think about the underground cities in Cappadocia region.
I don’t think that Russia has a chance of holding Ukraine in the long run because occupation of a people that hate you is difficult, but they may have the ability to destroy much of Ukraine’s infrastructure and resources.
Surrender to Russia is not an option for Ukraine as history shows that leads to mass graves and unbelievable atrocities against the population… I think that alone will eventually lead Ukraine to prevail… it’s just how horrible the cost will be.
Thank you for all the hard work you’re putting into your articles Wes!
I just listened to this one and the voiceover saying „epic furry“ instead of fury made my evening 😂
That's awesome lol I don't know why that patch makes me laugh so hard. I just find military operation naming conventions so ridiculous that anything that lampoons them is okay in my book.
Another excellent post, Wes. Your knowledge of this subject is encyclopedic! It's a pleasure to read your writing, especially for an old, over the hill Air Defense Officer! Thanks!
Thanks Pete!
Truly my pleasure, Wes!
I'd love to hear the story behind the "Epic Furry" patch. And is there an actual "Epic Fury" patch?
Just an unofficial morale patch made by some Air Force guys last February to poke fun at the whole endeavor. The fact that Fury can sound like Furry, and there’s a sexual subset of Furry fandom, (people dressing up as anthropomorphic animals and having somewhat anonymous relations) makes it slightly funnier lol
As for official, I know of quite a few commemorative patches officially adopted by various units but they vary based on the unit. I don’t think there is a unified patch. I tried to share an example of a good one here but I just realized I can’t post an image in comments. So here’s an example at this link: https://patchbuilt.com/products/operation-epic-fury-commemorative-emblem-leatherette-morale-patch?variant=47494813614267&country=US¤cy=USD
So there are Air Force guys are poking fun at the whole endeavor? I don't know whether to salute them or to just hope they keep up the good work.
I really feel for the Navy guys on the Gerald Ford. Hard to keep up morale when being abused by command for shits, giggles, and bosses ego.
From the Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/08/03/ukraine-shows-war-how-build-modern-defense-industry/?utm_campaign=&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=&utm_term=
An editorial by the founder of FirePoint
What they could do is, when they have intelligence of when and roughly where from they will come under attack, to sortie jet powered drones and/or cruise missiles which loiter while evading Russian air defences. It will not kill the incoming ballistic missile, but the fact that they are in the air gives them eyes in the air closer to and pointed at the area of launch and a rapid reaction capability that strikes the launchers before they can run away. Even a success rate of 10% kills launchers, scarcer than missiles.
Sure, some drones will be wasted on non events. But, at the rate the Russians are flinging ballistic missiles that could wear down launcher numbers and constrict what is being faced. Shoot the archer that reveals itself with an arrow that was already in the air.
I have a dear friend on the front lines in Ukraine. Anything that will give them hope
Hi Wes! Have you heard about the repurposed HAWK missiles being sent to Ukraine and given technology upgrades?
Hi Nana, I did a video on HAWKs way back in late 2024 saying we should send them to Ukraine but I haven't seen any recent news. I'll look into it!
https://youtu.be/Xc2C-_m1qGU?is=Tg6J6m0pPshDxG7p
https://kyivindependent.com/us-approves-108-million-hawk-missile-system-equipment-sale-to-ukraine/
HAWK can hit some tactical ballistic missiles in limited circumstances, especially if cued by a better 3D radar or another sensor. Looks like I need to make a new video! Historically, HAWK did demonstrate anti-tactical ballistic missile capability. In 1988, a HAWK used Patriot acquisition data to intercept a short-range ballistic missile target at White Sands, and later upgrades improved its short-range anti-tactical ballistic missile role. But those were controlled test conditions against older-style targets, not a guarantee it can reliably defend Kyiv from modern Russian ballistic salvos.
So this $108.1 million sustainment sale is still useful. Reuters says it supports Ukraine’s HAWK missile system, and the earlier DSCA package covered spare parts, overhaul, training, missile repair, and technical support. That keeps HAWK batteries alive for drones, aircraft, and cruise missiles, which frees Patriot and SAMP/T interceptors for the harder ballistic targets.
100% of Russia's ballistic missiles are currently getting through to hit Kyiv; which implies that Ukraine is not using its HAWKs for the ballistic missile threat. I'd like to know why.
https://youtu.be/Xc2C-_m1qGU?
This morning I was wondering what was out there (if anything) to counter the current ballistic missile threat to Ukraine? A few days ago I had a similar thought about glide bombs.
And there you are covering both topics in the last two days. Maybe I am beginning to tune into your way of scanning the defence horizon?
Excellent detail in the one btw.
Thanks Graham. We're thinking along the same threat matrix. I'm worried about Kyiv because there will be no more Patriots coming. I think I buried the lede in the article. Ukraine should likely pivot it's long-range strike campaign away from oil temporarily and go after the ballistic threat on the ground.
Yeah totally. I was wondering why we've only seen a couple of hits on the big missile manufacturing complexes by Ukraine. I guess those flamingos aren't being produced quite as quickly as was first hoped. I know they are slow-moving and easier to shoot down but a number got through to hit that old Stalingrad factory area about a month ago which I believe was involved in Khinsal production.
It is like a horrific rock-paper-scissors contest sometimes. One side hurts the other side some way and forces them to react. That side then digs back and forces the other to do something different.
Great article Mr O'Donnell! I already read the others comments, no more to add. Is sad and frustrating this events
"Kill the archer before he releases the arrow"... as the US has seen Iran practice in recent months so effectively, surprisingly taking the US completely off guard.
Hi Tobias, good question. IRIS-T SLX may eventually help fill the gap as a longer-range European air-defense layer, but I wouldn’t treat it as a near-term Patriot replacement for Iskander/Kinzhal-type ballistic threats. HYDEF is even farther out: it’s aimed at future 2035-plus hypersonic/high-velocity threats. So both are important, but neither solves Kyiv’s current interceptor shortage. FREYJA is probably the near-term European effort to watch.