How soon can Russia make there own to replace their blindspots on the battlefield?
And lastly, this seems like an obvious solution. Did it take so long to come because the technology needed to be shrunk to fit out a drone? Or does it only seem obvious in retrospect?
Will Saab and General Atomics sell the MQ-9B AEW&C (the “drone AWACS”) to Ukraine?
Right now, there’s no official word that Ukraine is first in line for these drones, but let’s call it “not impossible and getting more likely.” The Western alliance is laser-focused on keeping Ukraine’s skies as contested as possible. While the UK, US, and other NATO countries are the named initial customers, there’s no technical reason Ukraine couldn’t operate these systems, especially given how quickly they’ve fielded every other Western gadget with a manual in English. The real obstacle, as always, is politics, export licenses, and the question of how much high-end tech Washington and Stockholm want flying anywhere near Russian EW and missile coverage.
If Ukraine does get these, it won’t be tomorrow. The first flight isn’t even scheduled until 2026, and production/fielding always lags behind PowerPoint optimism. But Ukraine has a habit of jumping the queue, if battlefield need meets political will, stranger things have happened.
How soon can Russia make their own “drone AWACS” to fill their blindspots?
Not anytime soon. Russia has plenty of conventional AEW aircraft, but their drone game is miles behind the West when it comes to big, high-end platforms like this. Building a large, long-endurance drone is one thing; integrating an advanced AESA radar, networking it into an IADS, and keeping it from getting smoked by Ukrainian Patriots is a much taller order. Russian industry is still stuck catching up to basic satellite comms, much less fielding a peer to MQ-9B + Saab’s sensors. Their stopgap? They’ll keep using older manned platforms, or possibly bolt smaller radars onto their Orions and Forpost drones, but don’t expect a Russian “Global Hawk AWACS” to show up over Donbas this year. Or next. Or, frankly, any time you’d want to bet your life on.
If this is so obvious, why did it take so long to put an AWACS on a drone?
This is the question that keeps defense analysts up at night. The basic answer: physics and Moore’s Law. Aerial early warning radars are big, heavy, power-hungry beasts, think flying a refrigerator with a microwave dish on top. The tech just wasn’t light or efficient enough to slap on a drone, especially if you wanted range and persistence.
Only recently have we seen gallium-nitride AESA radar arrays and the computing power small enough to fit onto a drone that isn’t the size (or price) of a 737. The next challenge was keeping the radar, comms, and power supplies cool and reliable over 24-hour missions. That’s non-trivial at 40,000 feet.
Plus, there’s a bit of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” in military procurement. The E-3 Sentry AWACS kept flying for 40+ years because nobody wanted to risk the budget or admit it might be obsolete until the tech matured. Now, with drones routinely in the air for a day at a time, and every third attack coming from low-level missiles and drones, suddenly everyone sees the obvious: put the big eye in the sky, make it unmanned, and you get global reach without risking expensive crews.
So yes, it only seems obvious now that all the pieces are on the table, and because the old Cold War models have hit their sell-by date.
i don’t know, but I guess Saab would love to test this in real life conditions. So I would guess so. But Ukraines problem is not so much warning as having something to react with. Enough air defense is also needed.
Wes - my son was a USAF life (retired E-8) who spent his career in AWACS. Great airframe for its time with unbelievable safety record. Long overdue for the boneyard. Love your commentaries - thanks.
Thank you for this interesting article! I guess it was only a matter of time before this was engineered. Again SAAB takes the lead in of the shelf solutions. It's IKEA thinking, love it! I think US navy is well aware of the threat drone swarms are for their traditional aircraft carrier fleet. The future is for multiple AI drones from multiple directions, from small carriers.
How about going the next step right away. Skydweller Aero aircraft has an 800 lb payload and can loiter for months. Think of what you can do it you design your platform to meet this need.
If the questions of politics, export licences and worry about Russians getting their hands on the tech can be overcome, there is a great opportunity here for cooperation and even a partnership between Ukraine and Sweden with these. Oh yes of course - and Grippens!
Thank you. Always look forward to your posts.
Are they planning to sell these to Ukraine?
How soon can Russia make there own to replace their blindspots on the battlefield?
And lastly, this seems like an obvious solution. Did it take so long to come because the technology needed to be shrunk to fit out a drone? Or does it only seem obvious in retrospect?
I love your questions, Conor. Okay, here goes...
Will Saab and General Atomics sell the MQ-9B AEW&C (the “drone AWACS”) to Ukraine?
Right now, there’s no official word that Ukraine is first in line for these drones, but let’s call it “not impossible and getting more likely.” The Western alliance is laser-focused on keeping Ukraine’s skies as contested as possible. While the UK, US, and other NATO countries are the named initial customers, there’s no technical reason Ukraine couldn’t operate these systems, especially given how quickly they’ve fielded every other Western gadget with a manual in English. The real obstacle, as always, is politics, export licenses, and the question of how much high-end tech Washington and Stockholm want flying anywhere near Russian EW and missile coverage.
If Ukraine does get these, it won’t be tomorrow. The first flight isn’t even scheduled until 2026, and production/fielding always lags behind PowerPoint optimism. But Ukraine has a habit of jumping the queue, if battlefield need meets political will, stranger things have happened.
How soon can Russia make their own “drone AWACS” to fill their blindspots?
Not anytime soon. Russia has plenty of conventional AEW aircraft, but their drone game is miles behind the West when it comes to big, high-end platforms like this. Building a large, long-endurance drone is one thing; integrating an advanced AESA radar, networking it into an IADS, and keeping it from getting smoked by Ukrainian Patriots is a much taller order. Russian industry is still stuck catching up to basic satellite comms, much less fielding a peer to MQ-9B + Saab’s sensors. Their stopgap? They’ll keep using older manned platforms, or possibly bolt smaller radars onto their Orions and Forpost drones, but don’t expect a Russian “Global Hawk AWACS” to show up over Donbas this year. Or next. Or, frankly, any time you’d want to bet your life on.
If this is so obvious, why did it take so long to put an AWACS on a drone?
This is the question that keeps defense analysts up at night. The basic answer: physics and Moore’s Law. Aerial early warning radars are big, heavy, power-hungry beasts, think flying a refrigerator with a microwave dish on top. The tech just wasn’t light or efficient enough to slap on a drone, especially if you wanted range and persistence.
Only recently have we seen gallium-nitride AESA radar arrays and the computing power small enough to fit onto a drone that isn’t the size (or price) of a 737. The next challenge was keeping the radar, comms, and power supplies cool and reliable over 24-hour missions. That’s non-trivial at 40,000 feet.
Plus, there’s a bit of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” in military procurement. The E-3 Sentry AWACS kept flying for 40+ years because nobody wanted to risk the budget or admit it might be obsolete until the tech matured. Now, with drones routinely in the air for a day at a time, and every third attack coming from low-level missiles and drones, suddenly everyone sees the obvious: put the big eye in the sky, make it unmanned, and you get global reach without risking expensive crews.
So yes, it only seems obvious now that all the pieces are on the table, and because the old Cold War models have hit their sell-by date.
Whew...
I would think that some of these would immediately be deployed to Ukraine. Talk about real battlefield testing.
Thank you. I appreciate it.
i don’t know, but I guess Saab would love to test this in real life conditions. So I would guess so. But Ukraines problem is not so much warning as having something to react with. Enough air defense is also needed.
My uneducated guess is that this is an “interim” solution that will prototype a successor unmanned permanent solution.
Sounds like a game changer.
Wes - my son was a USAF life (retired E-8) who spent his career in AWACS. Great airframe for its time with unbelievable safety record. Long overdue for the boneyard. Love your commentaries - thanks.
The world is passing us by
Thank you for this interesting article! I guess it was only a matter of time before this was engineered. Again SAAB takes the lead in of the shelf solutions. It's IKEA thinking, love it! I think US navy is well aware of the threat drone swarms are for their traditional aircraft carrier fleet. The future is for multiple AI drones from multiple directions, from small carriers.
How about going the next step right away. Skydweller Aero aircraft has an 800 lb payload and can loiter for months. Think of what you can do it you design your platform to meet this need.
Sounds promising. BTW Australia is sending a Wedgetail to Ukraine to identify incoming Russian threats.
Excellent review as usual.
If the questions of politics, export licences and worry about Russians getting their hands on the tech can be overcome, there is a great opportunity here for cooperation and even a partnership between Ukraine and Sweden with these. Oh yes of course - and Grippens!