Wait a minute here....upgraded in 1983, when the entire world had less computing power than the newest iPhone. And you reported that RUS drones are hacking NVDA chips that do 4 trillion calculations a second, did I read that right? Are we selling them Gatling Guns?
Return of the Jedi was released, Michael Jackson's "Billie Jean" topped the charts, and the first African-American Miss America was crowned. ‘Twas a good year.
I’d classify everything related to aid for Ukraine as aspirational at this point.
Until the pallets cross the Polish-Ukrainian border, there simply is no guarantee that the US will honor its commitments as Kegseth, Colby, et al get to run the DOD as a personal fiefdom whenever DJT isn’t embarrassed into taking a closer look.
In a normal administration, a lower level appointee like Colby ceasing agreed-to aid unilaterally because vibes / personal reasons / whatever would have led to an instant firing.
But this is the difference between ‘45 and ‘47, this administration is filled with Project 2025 minions operating on auto-pilot or their own pilot, not a cohesive plan, order, whatever.
And that may very well be by design to maximize the chaos, keep distracting from the latest scandal and to bring about the destruction of the administrative state.
Thanks for the sharp catch, and for sticking with these marathon updates (you deserve a medal just for reading to the end). You’re right, the Kyiv Independent nailed the details: the latest package, combining air defense support and M109 howitzer maintenance, totals $330 million. The DSCA announcement spells out $180 million for Ukraine’s air defense lifeline (think HAWK radars, launcher upgrades, all the fix-it kits), and $150 million to keep those M109 Paladins rolling and firing.
Here’s where the confusion sometimes creeps in: the current $330 million figure is specifically for this Foreign Military Sales deal, meaning Ukraine actually pays for these services and spare parts, rather than getting a free ride on Uncle Sam’s drawdown plan. There’s also a completely separate $322 million package greenlit just a few weeks ago, covering fresh HAWK Phase III batteries and Bradleys, plus associated maintenance, also under the Foreign Military Sales banner. If you stack those two together (as I did here for headline effect), you hit that $650 million number, but they’re distinct packages, not one mega-deal.
So, no smoke and mirrors, just multiple buckets of military aid, some paid, some donated, all criss-crossing in the news cycle. And because nothing about American arms transfers is ever simple, a chunk of previously approved Biden-era gear is still in the pipeline, set to arrive in Ukraine over the next few years.
Bottom line: $330 million is the number for this week’s announced package, and you’re spot-on for calling it out. Appreciate the attention to detail and the good-faith question. This stuff is intentionally labyrinthine—if you’re a little confused, welcome to the club.
Thanks! Indeed one sometimes wonders, especially with regard to French aid to Ukraine, whether the confusion is clever strategy (to keep Russia in the fog) or deliberate obfuscation (to make France look better than it is).
So could we summarize the 2 separate packages as 2 tranches of basically the same stuff, ie air defenses (HAWK and associated paraphernalia) + ground automotive material (M109 and Bradley)?
No worries at all, speed reading is practically a survival skill in 2025. To your question: Yes, the U.S. government, funded by taxpayers, has indeed purchased AGM-114 Hellfire missiles (including various flavors, like the infamous R9X "flying Ginsu knife" variant) over the years. The R9X itself, designed for precise, low-collateral damage strikes (read: just the guy in the car, not the car next to him), was developed in the late Obama years and fielded more widely under Trump and Biden.
Now, regarding deliveries to Ukraine: As of now, there is no public evidence that the U.S. has sent R9X Hellfires to Ukraine. The U.S. has sent regular Hellfires for platforms like the Mi-17 helicopters and, more recently, for ground-based launchers like Frankenstein Humvees and even naval boats, but there’s no credible reporting or documentation that the R9X variant made the trip. The R9X is a bit of a unicorn, highly classified, used sparingly, and not part of the regular aid packages for Ukraine. In fact, most R9X strikes you read about happen in the Middle East or occasionally Afghanistan, always with a big red stamp of “compartmentalized.”
So, short answer: Yes, U.S. taxpayers bought the R9X, but no, Ukraine hasn't received them, at least not as far as anyone outside the classified world can confirm. And if that ever changes, trust me, you’ll see it all over both the Pentagon leaks and the next round of Russian conspiracy theories.
Hope that clears it up! Thanks for keeping the questions sharp, keeps me honest, and keeps the government on its toes. I seem to remember writing an article earlier this year about the possibility of Ukraine receiving these things; I'll see if I can dig it up. I publish 7 written pieces and 4 videos every week, so it's getting hard to keep track lol
Wait a minute here....upgraded in 1983, when the entire world had less computing power than the newest iPhone. And you reported that RUS drones are hacking NVDA chips that do 4 trillion calculations a second, did I read that right? Are we selling them Gatling Guns?
Return of the Jedi was released, Michael Jackson's "Billie Jean" topped the charts, and the first African-American Miss America was crowned. ‘Twas a good year.
I’d classify everything related to aid for Ukraine as aspirational at this point.
Until the pallets cross the Polish-Ukrainian border, there simply is no guarantee that the US will honor its commitments as Kegseth, Colby, et al get to run the DOD as a personal fiefdom whenever DJT isn’t embarrassed into taking a closer look.
In a normal administration, a lower level appointee like Colby ceasing agreed-to aid unilaterally because vibes / personal reasons / whatever would have led to an instant firing.
But this is the difference between ‘45 and ‘47, this administration is filled with Project 2025 minions operating on auto-pilot or their own pilot, not a cohesive plan, order, whatever.
And that may very well be by design to maximize the chaos, keep distracting from the latest scandal and to bring about the destruction of the administrative state.
Thanks for your ever detailed (and entertaining!) analyses. However, according to tke Kyiv Independent, the TOTAL value of the recently approved artillary and air-defense packages would be US$ 330 million : https://kyivindependent.com/us-approves-180-million-military-sale-to-ukraine-for-air-defense/
Is there some misunderstanding or confusion somewhere?
Thanks for the sharp catch, and for sticking with these marathon updates (you deserve a medal just for reading to the end). You’re right, the Kyiv Independent nailed the details: the latest package, combining air defense support and M109 howitzer maintenance, totals $330 million. The DSCA announcement spells out $180 million for Ukraine’s air defense lifeline (think HAWK radars, launcher upgrades, all the fix-it kits), and $150 million to keep those M109 Paladins rolling and firing.
Here’s where the confusion sometimes creeps in: the current $330 million figure is specifically for this Foreign Military Sales deal, meaning Ukraine actually pays for these services and spare parts, rather than getting a free ride on Uncle Sam’s drawdown plan. There’s also a completely separate $322 million package greenlit just a few weeks ago, covering fresh HAWK Phase III batteries and Bradleys, plus associated maintenance, also under the Foreign Military Sales banner. If you stack those two together (as I did here for headline effect), you hit that $650 million number, but they’re distinct packages, not one mega-deal.
So, no smoke and mirrors, just multiple buckets of military aid, some paid, some donated, all criss-crossing in the news cycle. And because nothing about American arms transfers is ever simple, a chunk of previously approved Biden-era gear is still in the pipeline, set to arrive in Ukraine over the next few years.
Bottom line: $330 million is the number for this week’s announced package, and you’re spot-on for calling it out. Appreciate the attention to detail and the good-faith question. This stuff is intentionally labyrinthine—if you’re a little confused, welcome to the club.
Thanks! Indeed one sometimes wonders, especially with regard to French aid to Ukraine, whether the confusion is clever strategy (to keep Russia in the fog) or deliberate obfuscation (to make France look better than it is).
So could we summarize the 2 separate packages as 2 tranches of basically the same stuff, ie air defenses (HAWK and associated paraphernalia) + ground automotive material (M109 and Bradley)?
Excellent stuff Wes, as usual, thank you 👍
Apologies if I've missed it (speed reading seems to be a requirement these days).
Did the US taxpayers, under a previous administration, "pay" for AGM-114 Hellfire R9X missiles and if so, have they been delivered?
No worries at all, speed reading is practically a survival skill in 2025. To your question: Yes, the U.S. government, funded by taxpayers, has indeed purchased AGM-114 Hellfire missiles (including various flavors, like the infamous R9X "flying Ginsu knife" variant) over the years. The R9X itself, designed for precise, low-collateral damage strikes (read: just the guy in the car, not the car next to him), was developed in the late Obama years and fielded more widely under Trump and Biden.
Now, regarding deliveries to Ukraine: As of now, there is no public evidence that the U.S. has sent R9X Hellfires to Ukraine. The U.S. has sent regular Hellfires for platforms like the Mi-17 helicopters and, more recently, for ground-based launchers like Frankenstein Humvees and even naval boats, but there’s no credible reporting or documentation that the R9X variant made the trip. The R9X is a bit of a unicorn, highly classified, used sparingly, and not part of the regular aid packages for Ukraine. In fact, most R9X strikes you read about happen in the Middle East or occasionally Afghanistan, always with a big red stamp of “compartmentalized.”
So, short answer: Yes, U.S. taxpayers bought the R9X, but no, Ukraine hasn't received them, at least not as far as anyone outside the classified world can confirm. And if that ever changes, trust me, you’ll see it all over both the Pentagon leaks and the next round of Russian conspiracy theories.
Hope that clears it up! Thanks for keeping the questions sharp, keeps me honest, and keeps the government on its toes. I seem to remember writing an article earlier this year about the possibility of Ukraine receiving these things; I'll see if I can dig it up. I publish 7 written pieces and 4 videos every week, so it's getting hard to keep track lol
Might have been end of April. I made more than a few calls to Congress during that time about speeding up exports to Ukraine.
What can I say? I want Putin and all of his devotees to go away.
Thanks for keeping these important facts coming.
Now that this war has established that traditional heavy weapons are obsolete, we're sending some of ours to Ukraine.
To be fair, Ukraine is purchasing these war machines. I would hope they don’t buy something that they aren’t absolutely sure they need.