Basically you are saying that to gain from a mobilization Russia must plan for a period of 6 months of training, organization, preparation of using those additional people. Seems logical to me. That the system creating the mess they are in should be able to be so well organized is in my opinion unbelievable. If Putin mobilize he will waste no time in sending those new recruits to the front for assault. Training? Weapons? You just charge in the direction of the enemy…
One thing not mentioned is the economic cost of taking half a million workers out of the Russian workforce. This would include workers making stuff the army needs. Madness.
A question you do not discuss in this posting is Ukraines reaction to the mobilization. They could conceivably use this to do some own mobilization, based on a needs must argument. I see this is a political issue really, but Ukraine would certainly do something as well.
This would be a desperate maneuver, but what's my biggest argument against it, is that Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian logistics will make even those who make it to the front starved of ammo, fuel and maybe even food.
That doesnt mean Putin will not do it anyway, we do not know how wide is his contact with reality.
A very good analysis, Wes. I certainly don’t know much about Russia’s current state. But I am certain that the odds of Putin’s timely demise is somewhat less than those statisticians who just presented a decrease in Russians support for the war.
Thanks Scott. Regarding Putin's demise, I find it funny that many YouTube channels adjacent to mine, and several writers here on Substack and on Medium who I respect, proclaim Putin's imminent fall; and have been every week for over four years.
Why do this? Because it gets them clicks. But their credibility is completely shot in my opinion.
A thorough analysis. I hope the Russian populace creates much more havoc than last time if this goes forward. More chaos at the borders. Workplaces shut down, at least temporarily. Street protests.
If you want a look into the reality of the Russian soldier in war, a good read is "One Soldier's War in Chechnya" by Arkady Babchenko. It explains a lot of why the Russian Army was really a paper tiger.
Ukraine with help from the EU might offer a = $2,000 reward to any and every Russian soldier ( recruited against his will ) who surrenders and joins the Ukrainians and anti-Putin Russians in overthrowing Putin’s Mafia Regime. $2,000 x 500,000 = ( a mere 1 Billion )
500,000 new soldiers added to the 700,000 Russia already has in Ukraine will create a logistics nightmare for Russia.
But I don’t believe additional soldiers will be based in Ukraine. The buildup will be along Russia’s southern border with Ukraine from where they will unleash attacks on Ukraine’s northern cities. But logistics are still going to be a problem for Russia.
Extra troops could widen the front northwest of Kharkov and overstretch Ukraine's ability to staff the line and interdict logistics along it.
Agreed, though: mandatory conscription puts an expiration date on Putin's regime if it doesn't lead quickly to victory, and Russia's training system is in no way up to the task of training that number of soldiers up to reasonable standards.
Basically you are saying that to gain from a mobilization Russia must plan for a period of 6 months of training, organization, preparation of using those additional people. Seems logical to me. That the system creating the mess they are in should be able to be so well organized is in my opinion unbelievable. If Putin mobilize he will waste no time in sending those new recruits to the front for assault. Training? Weapons? You just charge in the direction of the enemy…
Drone fodder!
One thing not mentioned is the economic cost of taking half a million workers out of the Russian workforce. This would include workers making stuff the army needs. Madness.
A question you do not discuss in this posting is Ukraines reaction to the mobilization. They could conceivably use this to do some own mobilization, based on a needs must argument. I see this is a political issue really, but Ukraine would certainly do something as well.
This would be a desperate maneuver, but what's my biggest argument against it, is that Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian logistics will make even those who make it to the front starved of ammo, fuel and maybe even food.
That doesnt mean Putin will not do it anyway, we do not know how wide is his contact with reality.
A very good analysis, Wes. I certainly don’t know much about Russia’s current state. But I am certain that the odds of Putin’s timely demise is somewhat less than those statisticians who just presented a decrease in Russians support for the war.
Thanks Scott. Regarding Putin's demise, I find it funny that many YouTube channels adjacent to mine, and several writers here on Substack and on Medium who I respect, proclaim Putin's imminent fall; and have been every week for over four years.
Why do this? Because it gets them clicks. But their credibility is completely shot in my opinion.
Sorry, just venting.
Venting is quite encouraged as necessary!
Die, painfully and quickly?
A thorough analysis. I hope the Russian populace creates much more havoc than last time if this goes forward. More chaos at the borders. Workplaces shut down, at least temporarily. Street protests.
If you want a look into the reality of the Russian soldier in war, a good read is "One Soldier's War in Chechnya" by Arkady Babchenko. It explains a lot of why the Russian Army was really a paper tiger.
I’ll check it out! Thanks
They would die, Mr O’Donnel, they would die.
Um, die?
Ukraine with help from the EU might offer a = $2,000 reward to any and every Russian soldier ( recruited against his will ) who surrenders and joins the Ukrainians and anti-Putin Russians in overthrowing Putin’s Mafia Regime. $2,000 x 500,000 = ( a mere 1 Billion )
Die a quick death? That was my first thought when I read the title. Now I’ll get serious and read.
500,000 new soldiers added to the 700,000 Russia already has in Ukraine will create a logistics nightmare for Russia.
But I don’t believe additional soldiers will be based in Ukraine. The buildup will be along Russia’s southern border with Ukraine from where they will unleash attacks on Ukraine’s northern cities. But logistics are still going to be a problem for Russia.
Extra troops could widen the front northwest of Kharkov and overstretch Ukraine's ability to staff the line and interdict logistics along it.
Agreed, though: mandatory conscription puts an expiration date on Putin's regime if it doesn't lead quickly to victory, and Russia's training system is in no way up to the task of training that number of soldiers up to reasonable standards.
The Ukrainians should themselves have their new mobilization strategy worked out by the time the Russian mobiks make themselves noticed.