There's also the economic retaliation you briefly touched on.
If countries sell US Treasury bonds, I've seen figures that Canada alone holds $420bn of them, that would place massive financial pressures on the US economy
It will hurt all his billionaire conies & the mega corporations that willingly support his grift. The quickest way to upset a rich man is to hit him in the hip pocket.
Which is one surprising element in Russia, all the pro Putin oligarchs are being hit with sanctions, travel restrictions & asset seizures. I'm waiting for Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin to have a tragic accident by falling g out of a window or a mysterious 9mm style heard attack
And what of all the US bases in Europe? That have ceased to be a support for Europe but are now an actual threat. Limits on overflights? Bases that the USA also uses to support Israel's internal and external wars. Restrictions? Endless drone flight over those airbases...? Even bases like Diego Garcia that the US 'leases' but relies on. If the USA is now a hostile actor.
European countries might start to wonder whether China might even look like a more reliable ally. Ambivalent about Russia... Consistent. Ahead of USA in many areas of technology, not least semiconductors and renewables. Worth starting discussions at least. Leave Taiwan alone and stop the espionage activities. And let it be known discretely that discussions have least started.
So just who are America's remaining friends? Russia? Israel? Hungary? Some dubious Middle East states? When you knife your real friends in the back after decades, it will take a lot to get them back. And Americans generally will feel it and deservedly so. After all, they elected him twice. Twice..... Better start planning those holidays in Russia. Apparently Crimea has some nice beach resorts. And reportedly you've despised European culture all along.
That comment about America being juvenile is spot on. Compared to European, Chinese or Japanese and yes Iranian cultures and histories that extend for a thousand years and more for example. (With apologies to Native Americans). Too much of America is at the level of the spotty teenage boy playing computer games in his bedroom. Susceptible to anything he reads on social media. Ignorant about the rest of the world. And it is mostly 'he's'. The much-vaunted constitution and the institutions of state have been shown to be a house of cards.
And Ive visited the USA many times for work, study and holiday. Been to half of the states. Worked for a US based firm. I know that there are exceptions but not nearly enough. American leadership has utterly failed to stand up to Trump. It's sad to see its utter political and moral collapse.
"Bases that the USA also uses to support Israel's internal and external wars". That's the key one. Mossad's "orange dossier" would make the epstein papers and Russia's pee tapes look tame.
Absolutely! Mark Carney ran this playbook when Trump threatened Canada. He simply called his old central banker friends in Japan and Europe (major US creditors) and they merely mused about selling off US Treasuries. They didn’t even need to actually sell any. Bessent warned Trump that if they did, it would be disastrous for the US economy, the dollar would lose its safe haven status, and the dollar would plummet. Trump caved in 3 days. NATO (& the civilised world) have far more potent weapons than guns.
Jordon Tootoo, the NHL’s first Inuit player, was not big, but he was known as an enforcer. He took on players much bigger than himself. Recently he was asked how he got the courage to stand up to players much bigger than himself. He replied, almost surprised by the question, by explaining that as a youngster, when he would go out on the land or Hudson Bay to hunt, or even just to out in the frigid cold, weather to clear the snow off a pond in order to play hockey, that more than often, from out of the pitch black arctic night, a 9 foot, 1200 pound polar bear would emerge. So a 200+ lb, 6’+ human hockey player is pretty tame. Hurtful, but not life threatening. So small teams of Inuit resistance fighters, or even trained Inuit reserve soldiers with camouflage skills and sniper rifles, could raise havoc with a base like Pituffik. F-35s, C-17s, C-130s having to refuel or be serviced there would be subject to long range sniper fire anywhere from 3 km or more. One bullet of 50 cal would disable a jet inoperable until spares could be brought in from the south. One bullet to take out $100 M+ aircraft. Talk about creating a supply chain bottle neck.
Interesting. I can guarantee you the Nordic countries won’t fight militarily. But in the twilight zone discussions.. but I think you really hit the nail with this one: «The real danger is not that the United States could seize Greenland. The danger is that a US president could persuade himself that a territorial trophy is worth more than a functioning alliance system.» Yes. Because that loss would be the experience. And the logical thing to do for the Nordics? Build nukes. We can. Guaranteed. Not something the world needs, but the logical defense.
At one time I would have advised you to go back to studying for the bar exam.
With Trump as President you wrote some plausible scenarios.
I don’t know the intricacies of our treaty with Denmark setting up our observation base there but why wouldn’t Denmark and a couple of their buddies setup “exercises” in Greenland. Some infantry, light armor, SigInt, AD etc, no more than a couple of battalions and some Close Air Support.
How would the US military respond to attacking an ally, in violation of treaties and no excuse about self defense? Certainly a raft of illegal orders to worry about. Any US captives could be tried by Denmark.
Would our Congress and Pentagon go along with this? If so, next administration cleans house and the saddest chapter in US history ends on a whimper
It wont end for a while. When you betray all your friends they do not forget.. Not until there is a major clean out in the US across its politics, judiciary, legislature, law enforcement and business. All have been shown to be politicised and corrupted
I believe any illegal and unjustified US intervention in Greenland, or betrayal as you correctly call it, will cause permanent and irreversible harm to the relationships between the USA and Europe and myriad other erstwhile friendly nations.
Wes, simply excellent, but nauseating to have to think the unthinkable. Here’s a few questions arising out of your post:
1. If there’s going to be shooting, the US should be clearly the instigator and therefore in the wrong. So if coalition sea or Air Forces warn US ships and planes that they are infringing sovereign territory and require them to leave immediately and they refuse, is that an act of war that allows the coalition to shoot?
2. If there IS shooting, the outcome is not in doubt but the US (for penalty and pain reasons) should pay a price. Wouldn’t it be far more effective to position a few dozen Stinger missiles and take out a landing helicopter or cargo plane than risk enormously expensive submarines and F35s? It’s the signal that counts; and finally,
3. Do you think any member of the US armed forces will refuse to obey a clearly illegal command? It would take only one, and not even a general; a senior NCO would probably resonate just a much. If just one did so, and went public before he or she could be silenced, it would immediately be a legal matter. I was trained in the Law a long time ago but I haven’t a clue how this would pan out. Would the USSC rubber stamp Trump’s orders or would it say his actions were clearly illegal? Either way, the fallout will be cataclysmic. One would hope for the sake of the Republic that the court rules against him, but then what happens if he defies the court? Miller, Hegseth, Vought et al are itching for such a showdown.
👏👏 Terrific and timely assessment, Wes! Well done!👏👏
Particularly like your closing statement:
...
"A juvenile great power treats alliances as paperwork and territory as a prize.
One of those approaches builds a stable order.
The other one builds a world where the next border crisis is always just one ego trip away."
Two reference points pop up:
-the recent experience of two Nato members, Greece and Turkey, and their territorial disputes in the Mediterranean Sea. (ie any "lessons learned" that are relevant to this scenario?
I stayed to the end! Wes, you cover the topic so comprehensively, it’s a pleasure to read and to gain an understanding of matters I know so little about. Thanks.
Wes,terrific, detailed war gaming. I've read others concerning this topic. Two things you didn't mention, although they are alluded to in some comments:
1. EU potentially - or even threatens - dumping nearly a $trillion in bonds ...
2. Canada closes its airspace to US aircraft (civvies and military). It's a much longer swim via the mid-North Atlantic...
Thank you for the insight, but you forgot to add a little detail in your considerations, Canada. Now, Canada is not a large military force (yet), but we are an Arctic Nation, in NATO, big in NORAD, and currently a little "miffed" by the words and financial actions of the White House resident (Don't forget we burnt the white House once before). Imagine (and I pray it never happens and sanity returns) if a NATO ally were attacked by the USA and if Canada turned off the DEW line and other northern radar systems? Why would we? Because if Trump does attack a NATO country once, he will try it again. BTW, really admire your writing and insight
Signed - Just a very proud Canadian who grew up in weather that tends to shut down the majority of US states.
As a soft,but effective pushback,the European Nations could collectivly boycott the Football⚽ World Cup this coming summer.The Brazilians under Lula would certainly join in and we can have an alternative tournament in Denmark.Sit back and enjoy the fume.
There's also the economic retaliation you briefly touched on.
If countries sell US Treasury bonds, I've seen figures that Canada alone holds $420bn of them, that would place massive financial pressures on the US economy
But that's only hurting the USA. It won't affect tRump or his crime family much - if at all, so he won't care.
It will hurt all his billionaire conies & the mega corporations that willingly support his grift. The quickest way to upset a rich man is to hit him in the hip pocket.
Which is one surprising element in Russia, all the pro Putin oligarchs are being hit with sanctions, travel restrictions & asset seizures. I'm waiting for Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin to have a tragic accident by falling g out of a window or a mysterious 9mm style heard attack
And what of all the US bases in Europe? That have ceased to be a support for Europe but are now an actual threat. Limits on overflights? Bases that the USA also uses to support Israel's internal and external wars. Restrictions? Endless drone flight over those airbases...? Even bases like Diego Garcia that the US 'leases' but relies on. If the USA is now a hostile actor.
European countries might start to wonder whether China might even look like a more reliable ally. Ambivalent about Russia... Consistent. Ahead of USA in many areas of technology, not least semiconductors and renewables. Worth starting discussions at least. Leave Taiwan alone and stop the espionage activities. And let it be known discretely that discussions have least started.
So just who are America's remaining friends? Russia? Israel? Hungary? Some dubious Middle East states? When you knife your real friends in the back after decades, it will take a lot to get them back. And Americans generally will feel it and deservedly so. After all, they elected him twice. Twice..... Better start planning those holidays in Russia. Apparently Crimea has some nice beach resorts. And reportedly you've despised European culture all along.
That comment about America being juvenile is spot on. Compared to European, Chinese or Japanese and yes Iranian cultures and histories that extend for a thousand years and more for example. (With apologies to Native Americans). Too much of America is at the level of the spotty teenage boy playing computer games in his bedroom. Susceptible to anything he reads on social media. Ignorant about the rest of the world. And it is mostly 'he's'. The much-vaunted constitution and the institutions of state have been shown to be a house of cards.
And Ive visited the USA many times for work, study and holiday. Been to half of the states. Worked for a US based firm. I know that there are exceptions but not nearly enough. American leadership has utterly failed to stand up to Trump. It's sad to see its utter political and moral collapse.
"Bases that the USA also uses to support Israel's internal and external wars". That's the key one. Mossad's "orange dossier" would make the epstein papers and Russia's pee tapes look tame.
Nice. But you forgot the Canada, it's between the Greenland and Trumponia Kingdom and they have good reason to stay on the European side.
European govts dumping US treasury bills is the biggest deterrant imo
Absolutely! Mark Carney ran this playbook when Trump threatened Canada. He simply called his old central banker friends in Japan and Europe (major US creditors) and they merely mused about selling off US Treasuries. They didn’t even need to actually sell any. Bessent warned Trump that if they did, it would be disastrous for the US economy, the dollar would lose its safe haven status, and the dollar would plummet. Trump caved in 3 days. NATO (& the civilised world) have far more potent weapons than guns.
Jordon Tootoo, the NHL’s first Inuit player, was not big, but he was known as an enforcer. He took on players much bigger than himself. Recently he was asked how he got the courage to stand up to players much bigger than himself. He replied, almost surprised by the question, by explaining that as a youngster, when he would go out on the land or Hudson Bay to hunt, or even just to out in the frigid cold, weather to clear the snow off a pond in order to play hockey, that more than often, from out of the pitch black arctic night, a 9 foot, 1200 pound polar bear would emerge. So a 200+ lb, 6’+ human hockey player is pretty tame. Hurtful, but not life threatening. So small teams of Inuit resistance fighters, or even trained Inuit reserve soldiers with camouflage skills and sniper rifles, could raise havoc with a base like Pituffik. F-35s, C-17s, C-130s having to refuel or be serviced there would be subject to long range sniper fire anywhere from 3 km or more. One bullet of 50 cal would disable a jet inoperable until spares could be brought in from the south. One bullet to take out $100 M+ aircraft. Talk about creating a supply chain bottle neck.
Interesting. I can guarantee you the Nordic countries won’t fight militarily. But in the twilight zone discussions.. but I think you really hit the nail with this one: «The real danger is not that the United States could seize Greenland. The danger is that a US president could persuade himself that a territorial trophy is worth more than a functioning alliance system.» Yes. Because that loss would be the experience. And the logical thing to do for the Nordics? Build nukes. We can. Guaranteed. Not something the world needs, but the logical defense.
And they have first hand experience of living next door to and fighting off an aggressive neighbour using intelligence rather than brute force
At one time I would have advised you to go back to studying for the bar exam.
With Trump as President you wrote some plausible scenarios.
I don’t know the intricacies of our treaty with Denmark setting up our observation base there but why wouldn’t Denmark and a couple of their buddies setup “exercises” in Greenland. Some infantry, light armor, SigInt, AD etc, no more than a couple of battalions and some Close Air Support.
How would the US military respond to attacking an ally, in violation of treaties and no excuse about self defense? Certainly a raft of illegal orders to worry about. Any US captives could be tried by Denmark.
Would our Congress and Pentagon go along with this? If so, next administration cleans house and the saddest chapter in US history ends on a whimper
It wont end for a while. When you betray all your friends they do not forget.. Not until there is a major clean out in the US across its politics, judiciary, legislature, law enforcement and business. All have been shown to be politicised and corrupted
I believe any illegal and unjustified US intervention in Greenland, or betrayal as you correctly call it, will cause permanent and irreversible harm to the relationships between the USA and Europe and myriad other erstwhile friendly nations.
But, what would a takeover of Greenland look like?
A big island of ice with horrific weather with scattered villages populated by angry people.
Wes, simply excellent, but nauseating to have to think the unthinkable. Here’s a few questions arising out of your post:
1. If there’s going to be shooting, the US should be clearly the instigator and therefore in the wrong. So if coalition sea or Air Forces warn US ships and planes that they are infringing sovereign territory and require them to leave immediately and they refuse, is that an act of war that allows the coalition to shoot?
2. If there IS shooting, the outcome is not in doubt but the US (for penalty and pain reasons) should pay a price. Wouldn’t it be far more effective to position a few dozen Stinger missiles and take out a landing helicopter or cargo plane than risk enormously expensive submarines and F35s? It’s the signal that counts; and finally,
3. Do you think any member of the US armed forces will refuse to obey a clearly illegal command? It would take only one, and not even a general; a senior NCO would probably resonate just a much. If just one did so, and went public before he or she could be silenced, it would immediately be a legal matter. I was trained in the Law a long time ago but I haven’t a clue how this would pan out. Would the USSC rubber stamp Trump’s orders or would it say his actions were clearly illegal? Either way, the fallout will be cataclysmic. One would hope for the sake of the Republic that the court rules against him, but then what happens if he defies the court? Miller, Hegseth, Vought et al are itching for such a showdown.
👏👏 Terrific and timely assessment, Wes! Well done!👏👏
Particularly like your closing statement:
...
"A juvenile great power treats alliances as paperwork and territory as a prize.
One of those approaches builds a stable order.
The other one builds a world where the next border crisis is always just one ego trip away."
Two reference points pop up:
-the recent experience of two Nato members, Greece and Turkey, and their territorial disputes in the Mediterranean Sea. (ie any "lessons learned" that are relevant to this scenario?
[for example:]
https://www.google.com/search?q=greece%2C+turkey+territorial+dispute+and+lessons+learned+for+Nato
-what is the anticipated role of Iceland, another (founding) Nato member, in your Greenland analysis?
PS- a little sarcastic substack cross-pollination here:
https://open.substack.com/pub/luciantruscott/p/is-there-anyone-on-earth-stupider
I stayed to the end! Wes, you cover the topic so comprehensively, it’s a pleasure to read and to gain an understanding of matters I know so little about. Thanks.
Wes you are absolutely brilliant
Wes,terrific, detailed war gaming. I've read others concerning this topic. Two things you didn't mention, although they are alluded to in some comments:
1. EU potentially - or even threatens - dumping nearly a $trillion in bonds ...
2. Canada closes its airspace to US aircraft (civvies and military). It's a much longer swim via the mid-North Atlantic...
Wes;
Thank you for the insight, but you forgot to add a little detail in your considerations, Canada. Now, Canada is not a large military force (yet), but we are an Arctic Nation, in NATO, big in NORAD, and currently a little "miffed" by the words and financial actions of the White House resident (Don't forget we burnt the white House once before). Imagine (and I pray it never happens and sanity returns) if a NATO ally were attacked by the USA and if Canada turned off the DEW line and other northern radar systems? Why would we? Because if Trump does attack a NATO country once, he will try it again. BTW, really admire your writing and insight
Signed - Just a very proud Canadian who grew up in weather that tends to shut down the majority of US states.
As a soft,but effective pushback,the European Nations could collectivly boycott the Football⚽ World Cup this coming summer.The Brazilians under Lula would certainly join in and we can have an alternative tournament in Denmark.Sit back and enjoy the fume.
It begs the question: why does the USA want Greenland? What could it do with Greenland that it currently can’t?