And I will jump with both feet into the he wants to. The Law will only stop him as long as it can. He is closing American society. He wants to be the last president, and the first king, dictator, whatever you want to call it.
The threat is very real, and we must stop pretending that the courts, especially SCOTUS, will save us. In effect, have had these convos in private DMs with friends, as well as physical convos with family. We are already in a cold civil war. Trump may force the issue into a hot civil war.
Not here to cheer ya. After all, that’s not my job. But this is a warning from how many countries, including the US, twice, have ended up in hot civil wars.
My first thought, the insight inspired by your question, is this, “What is going to happen when Trump contests the midterm elections?”, because he absolutely is going to. We all know it.
Let’s view this through the Hungarian lens. Orbán was also easy to cry fraud or interference but his loss was far too great for a few votes to matter, so he went away with his tail tucked between his legs. Between gas prices and tariffs, the GOP will get crushed. It would be like Floyd Patterson getting up after being KO’d in the first round by Sonny Liston and saying he was robbed by the referee.
Unlike Orban, Trump will still dispute at the loss of 40H/15S seats. But he will be laughed at.
Excellent analysis of a complex series of problems, Wes. I fully expect Trump to throw a major hissy fit when the November election results roll in. We must vote in numbers too large to matter.
"This standard can never be satisfied, because no complex system on earth can prove the complete absence of every theoretical vulnerability. Under that rule, no American election is ever legitimate unless the preferred candidate wins."
Excellent article, but I think we should be clear that you can prove a negative, or at least show overwhelming probability. Is the homeless person on the corner secretly a billionaire. You can construct an argument showing this to be incredibly unlikely. Did Trump secretly beat LeBron at one on one. Obviously, the answer is not you cannot reasonably disprove that until you see them actually play. You can construct evidence from biological, sport, and other science showing that that is for all intents and purposes impossible.
So, when it comes to things like proving that the election in 2020 was not stolen, in, say, Georgia, you can show that this was basically impossible by looking at the security measures of mail ballots, the fact that a paper recount was done under supervision of Republicans, who completely controlled that state government, executive, legislative, and judicial, and so on.
An election can be stolen, but it has to be done authoritarian style. The authoritarian party controls the government and they and their henchmen and their judges just say, this is the vote count, Putin won, you have a problem with that? In 2020, the Democrats did not control the government. In 2026, the Republicans do.
So what would be the issue with passing the SAVE act? Isn’t that supposed to take care of the issues he outlined, rightly or wrongly? And then if Republicans lose, as long as the election standards are followed, there would be very little ground for contesting from the right.
Of course if the Republicans win, then the Democrats will contest the results, so we’re getting that noise either way.
I just want standard election rules and transparent counting and results. I guess that’s too much to ask for.
I haven't read the bill, but from the Substacks I read, actually voting would be a real headache for a lot of people. One would have to bring a photo ID, proof of citizenship (like passport or birth certificate, (even real ID driver's licenses or military ID wouldn't be enough)) that matches the name on the ID (or bring proof of name change like wedding license).
Not if, when.
And I will jump with both feet into the he wants to. The Law will only stop him as long as it can. He is closing American society. He wants to be the last president, and the first king, dictator, whatever you want to call it.
The threat is very real, and we must stop pretending that the courts, especially SCOTUS, will save us. In effect, have had these convos in private DMs with friends, as well as physical convos with family. We are already in a cold civil war. Trump may force the issue into a hot civil war.
Not here to cheer ya. After all, that’s not my job. But this is a warning from how many countries, including the US, twice, have ended up in hot civil wars.
My first thought, the insight inspired by your question, is this, “What is going to happen when Trump contests the midterm elections?”, because he absolutely is going to. We all know it.
Thanks, Wes, for a level-headed analysis. I'm sure we will hear a great deal of shouting and other noise on this topic.
I would feel absolutely bonkers about it if Donald does anything like that. Making a gobag now.
Let’s view this through the Hungarian lens. Orbán was also easy to cry fraud or interference but his loss was far too great for a few votes to matter, so he went away with his tail tucked between his legs. Between gas prices and tariffs, the GOP will get crushed. It would be like Floyd Patterson getting up after being KO’d in the first round by Sonny Liston and saying he was robbed by the referee.
Unlike Orban, Trump will still dispute at the loss of 40H/15S seats. But he will be laughed at.
Excellent analysis of a complex series of problems, Wes. I fully expect Trump to throw a major hissy fit when the November election results roll in. We must vote in numbers too large to matter.
"This standard can never be satisfied, because no complex system on earth can prove the complete absence of every theoretical vulnerability. Under that rule, no American election is ever legitimate unless the preferred candidate wins."
Excellent article, but I think we should be clear that you can prove a negative, or at least show overwhelming probability. Is the homeless person on the corner secretly a billionaire. You can construct an argument showing this to be incredibly unlikely. Did Trump secretly beat LeBron at one on one. Obviously, the answer is not you cannot reasonably disprove that until you see them actually play. You can construct evidence from biological, sport, and other science showing that that is for all intents and purposes impossible.
So, when it comes to things like proving that the election in 2020 was not stolen, in, say, Georgia, you can show that this was basically impossible by looking at the security measures of mail ballots, the fact that a paper recount was done under supervision of Republicans, who completely controlled that state government, executive, legislative, and judicial, and so on.
An election can be stolen, but it has to be done authoritarian style. The authoritarian party controls the government and they and their henchmen and their judges just say, this is the vote count, Putin won, you have a problem with that? In 2020, the Democrats did not control the government. In 2026, the Republicans do.
So what would be the issue with passing the SAVE act? Isn’t that supposed to take care of the issues he outlined, rightly or wrongly? And then if Republicans lose, as long as the election standards are followed, there would be very little ground for contesting from the right.
Of course if the Republicans win, then the Democrats will contest the results, so we’re getting that noise either way.
I just want standard election rules and transparent counting and results. I guess that’s too much to ask for.
I haven't read the bill, but from the Substacks I read, actually voting would be a real headache for a lot of people. One would have to bring a photo ID, proof of citizenship (like passport or birth certificate, (even real ID driver's licenses or military ID wouldn't be enough)) that matches the name on the ID (or bring proof of name change like wedding license).