Terrific effort Wes! It brings to mind reading a book about 40 years ago by Alvin Toffler. It was titled "Future Shock" and its premise was that the pace off change would accelerate until people could no longer absorb the changes in time to react to them. What you are describing is a phenomenon that is approaching that state........fascinating. I always wondered how it might manifest itself.
Read Future Shock about 50 years ago. Comes to mind with increasing frequency - his central thesis is holding well, though many details are not. I should read it again.
Wow! Awesome article. I really knew nothing about AI in war, or AI in general, before reading this article. I am amazed at how quickly AI has evolved. Makes me wonder what the next few years will bring. The massively bloated defense budget of the U.S. could (but probably won’t) be reduced. Just wow!
Aren't some episodes of Black Mirror just a little ahead of reality? My little city of about 100K has already experimented with a drone to catch distracted rivers and I could already see how it can be automated along with a lot of other traffic enforcement.
How long can we stay safe from terrorist attacks with drones?
Chris, I was just having this same conversation with my wife last night. There are so many alarming developments here, it's tough to pick one to be most concerned about. But if you were to press me, I would have to say the democratization of the technology (its open source nature). In theory, a person could buy a Jetson Orin from Nvidia and train it on 1,000 images of the guy that stole his girlfriend in high school, with orders to fly into the target when positively identified. Then, install it in a DJI Mavic drone with a small explosive or battery acid, or whatever, and we're suddenly in a new world of domestic terrorism. Give it two years max, and this will be in the news.
I'm still (happily) surprised controlled drones haven't been used to attack crowds, making them autonomous is just another level of how are we supposed to protect ourselves? The saving grace is that for the most part the world is made of people that aren't evil.
In the short term, and in Ukraine, I'm pretty confident that such AI will enable effective re-usable drone interceptors, and keep Ukraine's defence ahead of Russia's offence.
Since Russia has to rely on black market AI chips these will be limited in number, especially if used in kamikaze weapons.
I agree. Out of hundreds of shot down Shahed drones in Ukraine, only a single AI Jetson Orin module has been found. This suggests that Russia might not have a huge supply (yet).
Take the rate of AI impact on evolution of warfare as we are seeing it unfold and extrapolate it by any number of years. What would a battlefield of 2035 or 2050 look like? Is there some unforeseen technology advance about to leap over the rate of innovation we are witnessing?
Terrific effort Wes! It brings to mind reading a book about 40 years ago by Alvin Toffler. It was titled "Future Shock" and its premise was that the pace off change would accelerate until people could no longer absorb the changes in time to react to them. What you are describing is a phenomenon that is approaching that state........fascinating. I always wondered how it might manifest itself.
Read Future Shock about 50 years ago. Comes to mind with increasing frequency - his central thesis is holding well, though many details are not. I should read it again.
He also predicted the proliferation innovation via cottage industry players rather than large central industrial think tanks.
Wow! Awesome article. I really knew nothing about AI in war, or AI in general, before reading this article. I am amazed at how quickly AI has evolved. Makes me wonder what the next few years will bring. The massively bloated defense budget of the U.S. could (but probably won’t) be reduced. Just wow!
Excellent! Your scope, organization and presentation, including conclusions are just outstanding.
One of your best articles! Length be damned! Full speed ahead with your next one!
Aren't some episodes of Black Mirror just a little ahead of reality? My little city of about 100K has already experimented with a drone to catch distracted rivers and I could already see how it can be automated along with a lot of other traffic enforcement.
How long can we stay safe from terrorist attacks with drones?
Chris, I was just having this same conversation with my wife last night. There are so many alarming developments here, it's tough to pick one to be most concerned about. But if you were to press me, I would have to say the democratization of the technology (its open source nature). In theory, a person could buy a Jetson Orin from Nvidia and train it on 1,000 images of the guy that stole his girlfriend in high school, with orders to fly into the target when positively identified. Then, install it in a DJI Mavic drone with a small explosive or battery acid, or whatever, and we're suddenly in a new world of domestic terrorism. Give it two years max, and this will be in the news.
I'm still (happily) surprised controlled drones haven't been used to attack crowds, making them autonomous is just another level of how are we supposed to protect ourselves? The saving grace is that for the most part the world is made of people that aren't evil.
Col. Boyd would be impressed
You leave me breathless. The battlefield will never be the same.
Thank you for a great article.
This is scary stuff in the longer term.
In the short term, and in Ukraine, I'm pretty confident that such AI will enable effective re-usable drone interceptors, and keep Ukraine's defence ahead of Russia's offence.
Since Russia has to rely on black market AI chips these will be limited in number, especially if used in kamikaze weapons.
I agree. Out of hundreds of shot down Shahed drones in Ukraine, only a single AI Jetson Orin module has been found. This suggests that Russia might not have a huge supply (yet).
Stimulating and thought provoking.
Take the rate of AI impact on evolution of warfare as we are seeing it unfold and extrapolate it by any number of years. What would a battlefield of 2035 or 2050 look like? Is there some unforeseen technology advance about to leap over the rate of innovation we are witnessing?
Brilliant article, thanks all you
Ghost in the drone....
and
https://substack.com/@wesodonnell/note/c-135868118?r=17x3tm