This is a spot-on analysis conveyed via superb writing, Wes. As a former NATO fighter pilot and lifelong student of geopolitics, I agree 100%. Thank you for your sterling work.
I don’t think Ukraine can sell out Ukraine. And I don’t see any negotiation without Ukraine. Yes I know Trump and Putin can make some back room deal in Saudi Arabia, but the reality is that it can be rejected. (Also there has to be some peace element of the plan even for Trump to make it. ) so let’s see. Admitting it can be worse. Europe can fight the war with Ukraine in. But it is now clear Europe is in its own. But so is the US. Does Trump think he can have any support on anything from Europe after this? We can always talk to China. Buy Chinese products. Including their AI. It is more energy efficient after all, and cheaper as well. And stop supporting US in the Middle East. Hell, we could probably ally with Mexico if need be. Does Trump have any idea of all the enemies out there? (Rhetorical question, I know he doesn’t understand.) But it is very sad.
The logic behind nuclear non proliferation was a world where a lot of nations have nukes is a very dangerous one. The US nuclear umbrella provided that backstop. Now it’s gone and every nation that does not have them will be in a race to get them. France and England have them, Germany and Japan can have them in short order. That goes for South Korea and Taiwan too.
Europe is at least ten times wealthier than Russia. They need to put there big boy pants on NOW.
We were warned about this (publicly) at least as far back as Secretary Gates under Obama (2011, I want to say). Let’s not forget Georgia (2008); then Crimea/Donbas (2018); then Ukraine again, with the Kerch Strait Incident (2018); and Ukraine, yet again, in 2022. We knew Trump’s return was a real possibility; we knew how he felt about NATO, Russia, and Ukraine. But, aside from the Baltic states and Poland, all we did in Europe was waffle, praising the need for greater defence investment but doing little about it.
It has not helped that the EU as a whole has been sluggish economically. In Britain alone, about 20 years ago GDP was roughly 90% of the American average; today that figure is a mere 60%. On top of that, we have serious demographic challenges due to an aging population and shrinking workforce (the latter being less of an issue in Britain due to significant immigration). Politicians ultimately prioritised retaining their seats over making painful but plainly exigent changes.
You’re absolutely right about the bomb most likely spreading. Though the UK and France do have many strategic nukes, there are significant gaps in our arsenal makeup that present problems for credible deterrence should Russia attack with smaller tactical nukes.
Fair comment, but I don't see Ukraine capitulating just because America says so. Trump may have a nasty blow coming to his ego. Let's just hope European leaders get their act together fast.
I hope so too. I am not optimistic. One of the biggest challenges, and a source of tremendous leverage for Trump, is integrated American intelligence and coordination capabilities, including Musk’s Starlink. Ukraine is heavily dependent on that infrastructure, and no other nation within Europe or without has that on America’s level. Trump, being an amoral lout, could just pull the plug tomorrow if he wanted. There’s no way we in Europe could replace that, most certainly not any time soon (if ever to an equally sophisticated standard). Sadly it’s not simply about replacing the materiel and financial aid the Americans have been providing. Dark days, I fear.
When JD Vance was running for the US Senate, he said, on Steve Bannon's podcast: I don't care about Ukraine. Now he's Trump's VP, and Vance goes to Munich for the strategic talks. No surprise...he still doesn't care about Ukraine.
Alas, too right about Vance. That said, as his political “evolution” has made clear, his chancer’s convictions could change again on a whim if the wind blows just right…. Cherub-faced Vance is a nasty piece of work indeed.
I hope the United States leaves NATO (long overdue) and Russia crushes the western installed and Soros funded Kiev regime. I really look forward most of all to Zelensky’s removal from power and the bitter tears, recriminations, and anguish of neoconservatives, interventionists, and Atlanticists of all stripes on this and other substacks. Love it.
I disagree. Everyone right now, regardless of what side they are on, seem to be proclaiming the ascendance of Russia and the looming strategic defeat of Ukraine. This is an example of how the surface events mislead or conceal unfolding political realities.
First nobody has sold out anyone. The weapons shipments are continuing, Western military production is ramping up exponentially, and some of the world's most advanced military hardware firms are steadily increasing their supplies to Ukraine through a network of novel logistical chains. The Western world is gearing up for a long term war not just to conclude the conflict in Ukraine, but to knock out the current form of Russia from the sphere of human civilization altogether, or to otherwise secure its integration into the global political system.
All this talk that Trump putting up about conceding this or that to Putin, is just political posturing for the shaping of the post war landscape in US favor. What Trump is actually doing is giving Putin a message "we can do this the easy way or the hard way".
Russia has placed itself in a cul-de-sac. No matter what it does, it can't continue on its current political path. Putin is being given a choice to "save face" and accept peace treaty on American terms, or face a kind of disaster nobody had faced before. This is because militarily, I am convinced that Russia has reached the "high water mark" of its ability to secure objectives on the ground. As the war drags on, the balance of military power will shift into the hands of the Ukrainians, as the Russians will find themselves irrevocably technologically outmatched and whatever materiel advantage they may currently possess, obliterated.
The notion that US will voluntary give up its global hegemony, is quite frankly baseless, and there are absolutely no visible grounds to believe that whatsoever. Whatever differences existing between American and European partners, are in my opinion trivial compared to their common perspectives.
Yes, in the short term, it might appear as if Ukraine is on the downbeat, might have to abandon or retreat from certain areas, particularly Pokrovsk or the Kursk region (though even here, I doubt the Russians will capture Pokrovsk before the year's out). Perhaps even accept a certain negotiated settlement for the end of the conflict. But in the long term, the Russian Federation will neither hold its currently captured territories, nor will it even likely prevent its looming breakup and dissolution.
I'd like to agree with this. Trump could be flattering Putin in public prior to telling him in private that the deal he has in mind is return to 2014 borders. But when I think how Trump is calling Zelensky's leadership invalid, and blaming Ukraine for starting the war, I find it hard to imagine such a smart plan in his head.
Dismantling the post war world order sounds great. It’s only lead to disaster. Go look at Tokyo and then DC or London. Can you tell who “won” that war?
This is a spot-on analysis conveyed via superb writing, Wes. As a former NATO fighter pilot and lifelong student of geopolitics, I agree 100%. Thank you for your sterling work.
- Best wishes from Spain
Thanks for reading, Matthew! I just posted a video on my YouTube channel about Spain’s donation of Leopard 2A4s to UKR. You might enjoy it! https://youtu.be/5UOawxFUyYo?si=PcD_GlBKMi0bFz_d
I don’t think Ukraine can sell out Ukraine. And I don’t see any negotiation without Ukraine. Yes I know Trump and Putin can make some back room deal in Saudi Arabia, but the reality is that it can be rejected. (Also there has to be some peace element of the plan even for Trump to make it. ) so let’s see. Admitting it can be worse. Europe can fight the war with Ukraine in. But it is now clear Europe is in its own. But so is the US. Does Trump think he can have any support on anything from Europe after this? We can always talk to China. Buy Chinese products. Including their AI. It is more energy efficient after all, and cheaper as well. And stop supporting US in the Middle East. Hell, we could probably ally with Mexico if need be. Does Trump have any idea of all the enemies out there? (Rhetorical question, I know he doesn’t understand.) But it is very sad.
The logic behind nuclear non proliferation was a world where a lot of nations have nukes is a very dangerous one. The US nuclear umbrella provided that backstop. Now it’s gone and every nation that does not have them will be in a race to get them. France and England have them, Germany and Japan can have them in short order. That goes for South Korea and Taiwan too.
Europe is at least ten times wealthier than Russia. They need to put there big boy pants on NOW.
We were warned about this (publicly) at least as far back as Secretary Gates under Obama (2011, I want to say). Let’s not forget Georgia (2008); then Crimea/Donbas (2018); then Ukraine again, with the Kerch Strait Incident (2018); and Ukraine, yet again, in 2022. We knew Trump’s return was a real possibility; we knew how he felt about NATO, Russia, and Ukraine. But, aside from the Baltic states and Poland, all we did in Europe was waffle, praising the need for greater defence investment but doing little about it.
It has not helped that the EU as a whole has been sluggish economically. In Britain alone, about 20 years ago GDP was roughly 90% of the American average; today that figure is a mere 60%. On top of that, we have serious demographic challenges due to an aging population and shrinking workforce (the latter being less of an issue in Britain due to significant immigration). Politicians ultimately prioritised retaining their seats over making painful but plainly exigent changes.
You’re absolutely right about the bomb most likely spreading. Though the UK and France do have many strategic nukes, there are significant gaps in our arsenal makeup that present problems for credible deterrence should Russia attack with smaller tactical nukes.
Fair comment, but I don't see Ukraine capitulating just because America says so. Trump may have a nasty blow coming to his ego. Let's just hope European leaders get their act together fast.
I hope so too. I am not optimistic. One of the biggest challenges, and a source of tremendous leverage for Trump, is integrated American intelligence and coordination capabilities, including Musk’s Starlink. Ukraine is heavily dependent on that infrastructure, and no other nation within Europe or without has that on America’s level. Trump, being an amoral lout, could just pull the plug tomorrow if he wanted. There’s no way we in Europe could replace that, most certainly not any time soon (if ever to an equally sophisticated standard). Sadly it’s not simply about replacing the materiel and financial aid the Americans have been providing. Dark days, I fear.
When JD Vance was running for the US Senate, he said, on Steve Bannon's podcast: I don't care about Ukraine. Now he's Trump's VP, and Vance goes to Munich for the strategic talks. No surprise...he still doesn't care about Ukraine.
Alas, too right about Vance. That said, as his political “evolution” has made clear, his chancer’s convictions could change again on a whim if the wind blows just right…. Cherub-faced Vance is a nasty piece of work indeed.
I hope the United States leaves NATO (long overdue) and Russia crushes the western installed and Soros funded Kiev regime. I really look forward most of all to Zelensky’s removal from power and the bitter tears, recriminations, and anguish of neoconservatives, interventionists, and Atlanticists of all stripes on this and other substacks. Love it.
I disagree. Everyone right now, regardless of what side they are on, seem to be proclaiming the ascendance of Russia and the looming strategic defeat of Ukraine. This is an example of how the surface events mislead or conceal unfolding political realities.
First nobody has sold out anyone. The weapons shipments are continuing, Western military production is ramping up exponentially, and some of the world's most advanced military hardware firms are steadily increasing their supplies to Ukraine through a network of novel logistical chains. The Western world is gearing up for a long term war not just to conclude the conflict in Ukraine, but to knock out the current form of Russia from the sphere of human civilization altogether, or to otherwise secure its integration into the global political system.
All this talk that Trump putting up about conceding this or that to Putin, is just political posturing for the shaping of the post war landscape in US favor. What Trump is actually doing is giving Putin a message "we can do this the easy way or the hard way".
Russia has placed itself in a cul-de-sac. No matter what it does, it can't continue on its current political path. Putin is being given a choice to "save face" and accept peace treaty on American terms, or face a kind of disaster nobody had faced before. This is because militarily, I am convinced that Russia has reached the "high water mark" of its ability to secure objectives on the ground. As the war drags on, the balance of military power will shift into the hands of the Ukrainians, as the Russians will find themselves irrevocably technologically outmatched and whatever materiel advantage they may currently possess, obliterated.
The notion that US will voluntary give up its global hegemony, is quite frankly baseless, and there are absolutely no visible grounds to believe that whatsoever. Whatever differences existing between American and European partners, are in my opinion trivial compared to their common perspectives.
Yes, in the short term, it might appear as if Ukraine is on the downbeat, might have to abandon or retreat from certain areas, particularly Pokrovsk or the Kursk region (though even here, I doubt the Russians will capture Pokrovsk before the year's out). Perhaps even accept a certain negotiated settlement for the end of the conflict. But in the long term, the Russian Federation will neither hold its currently captured territories, nor will it even likely prevent its looming breakup and dissolution.
I'd like to agree with this. Trump could be flattering Putin in public prior to telling him in private that the deal he has in mind is return to 2014 borders. But when I think how Trump is calling Zelensky's leadership invalid, and blaming Ukraine for starting the war, I find it hard to imagine such a smart plan in his head.
Dismantling the post war world order sounds great. It’s only lead to disaster. Go look at Tokyo and then DC or London. Can you tell who “won” that war?